[CTC] Fast Track timing

Fri Apr 3 06:24:52 PDT 2015

Two articles below on timing and Hatch/Wyden negotiations.  Quick version: Fast Track re-introduction possible on April 13 with mark-up April 20 — Senators Hatch and Wyden close to a deal.  Still Herculean efforts going on in Oregon to stop them.  See, for example: http://oraflcio.org/tpp/

Inside U.S. Trade - 04/03/2015
Senate Finance Committee Aims For TPA Mark-Up During Week Of April 20
Posted: April 02, 2015

The Senate Finance Committee has set April 21 as a target date for marking up a bill to renew Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), also called "fast track," an action that is expected to be preceded by the introduction of the legislation and a Finance Committee hearing just a week beforehand, according to informed sources.

This decision to move forward on a bill has led some congressional sources and lobbyists to assume that Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) have reached agreement on the substance of the bill and will now focus on deciding what other trade bills would be passed along with TPA, these sources said. Other sources insist that this is not the case, and that the two sides are still working toward a compromise.

House Ways & Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) last week suggested that a miscellaneous tariff bill (MTB) will not be ready in time to move with TPA (Inside U.S. Trade, March 27). One lobbyist said even a bill to reform the MTB process would not be likely to move with TPA either.

Apart from dealing with other add-on trade legislation, the two sides will have to decide the details of the Senate-first strategy that TPA proponents are pursuing in the hope of avoiding two House votes on the TPA bill and creating momentum, sources said.

For example, there is no decision yet on whether the Senate Finance Committee markup will be followed by a Senate floor vote, or whether the Finance-approved bill will go to Ways & Means for a markup and a subsequent House vote before being sent back to the Senate.

Staff for Hatch and Wyden met on March 26, the day Congress left for the Easter congressional recess, to discuss a proposal submitted by Hatch earlier that week. Before that meeting, the Democratic side was optimistic that a deal could materialize that day, according to one informed source.

Administration officials have also been conveying a sense of optimism that fast-track legislation will move next month, sources said.

The decision to go ahead with moving the bill comes even as support continues to lag in the House, where pro-TPA lobbyists admit there is no reliable vote count. One congressional source said there continue to be wildly fluctuating numbers on how many Republicans will vote against TPA in order not to give President Obama more foreign policy authority. He said these numbers range between 40 to 80 Republicans that will oppose TPA.

This source disputed the notion previously put forward by a pro-TPA lobbyist that 55 Republicans could oppose TPA without a bill being in danger of failing. He said with 190 Republicans voting yes, there would have to be 30 Democrats in support, which he signaled would be a high mark to meet.

Some opponents have said they expect roughly 12 House Democrats to ultimately support TPA, but the source said there are more Democrats that are looking to vote yes. Whether or not they will do so will depend on what position Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI) take. If both of them came out in favor of fast track, it would free up more Democrats to vote yes, sources said.

But sources signaled that at this time it is unlikely that Pelosi will take a favorable stance on TPA given negative signals she has given in closed-door meetings. One source said Pelosi could also be influenced by the fact that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), a high-profile Democrat, has been critical of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

However, several sources emphasized that Pelosi will use her role as a leader of the Democratic Caucus to create space for members to vote for fast track even though others will not, in order to minimize the divisiveness of the trade issue within the party.

In terms of add-on legislation, an extension of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program is the most controversial issue that has to be settled along with currency legislation, which sources said will likely be offered as an amendment in the Senate.

The authorization for TAA lapsed on Dec. 31, 2014, but Congress extended its funding through Sept. 30, the end of the federal fiscal year. TAA faces opposition from both House and Senate Republicans.

Ryan last week did not mention renewal of TAA as one of the bills that would move along with TPA, although he has previously said that it would be a part of the "conversation" about how to pass fast track (Inside U.S. Trade, Feb. 6). TAA is certain to be offered as an amendment in the Senate, though it may not be the expanded program proposed in a bill sponsored by Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and 39 other members.

In addition, there is wrangling over a slew of other issues that lobbyists want to add to the TPA bill. Among these are numerous technical trade law provisions that have languished for years for absence in an amendable trade bill, sources said. "Every consultant and every lobbyist is desperate to get these issues into the bill," one lobbyist said. He said the committees' decision on what to include will likely be determined on whether it will attract votes or not.

Ryan last week said he wants to move legislation to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), as well as a customs reauthorization bill, together as a trade package alongside TPA. He also indicated work is being done to reach bicameral compromises on those bills (Inside U.S. Trade, March 27).

But other sources said that it is likely that only parts of a customs authorization bill passed by Senate Finance will be part of that package, particularly the so-called ENFORCE legislation sponsored by Wyden aimed at fighting circumvention of trade remedy orders.

Ways & Means Republicans have previously rejected the ENFORCE bill, which sets deadlines for Customs and Border Protection to act on circumvention complaints, in favor of the so-called PROTECT bill that does not. The PROTECT Act was sponsored in the last Congress by Rep. Charles Boustany (R-LA).

Private-sector sources said this week that there is an effort underway to work out a compromise between the two versions of trade remedy enforcement legislation.

There is also some interest by apparel importers in including the renewal of the latest version of the Haitian Hemispheric Opportunity Partnership Encouragement (HOPE) Act, which does not expire until 2020 -- a long time from now in terms of trade program renewal, sources said. But proponents argue that Haiti is now at capacity in terms of producing apparel for the U.S. market, and needs the certainty that the program will continue to attract new investors.

Politically, including this program has the advantage of allowing the administration to put more pressure on the Congressional Black Caucus -- a major backer of the original HOPE Act -- to vote for TPA because it will mean the passage of legislation to help both Africa and Haiti, sources said.

Apparel importers are also considering pushing a renewal of a Nicaragua Tariff Preference Level (TPL), which has two parts. The first allows any kind of Nicaraguan-made apparel produced from third-country fabric to enter the U.S. duty free up to 100 million Square Meter Equivalents.

The second part of the TPL is a separate mechanism that applies to the production of trousers. It requires that each pair of trousers made with third-country fabric that Nicaragua ships to the U.S. must be matched by one pair made with regional fabric originating in the U.S. or countries that are signatories to the Central American Free Trade Agreement.

The National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO) has made clear that it objects to the renewal of the non-matching TPL component in the context of a fast-track bill. But it is open to working with the committees on the renewal of AGOA and the HOPE bill to be included, sources said. NCTO last week announced it would back the fast-track bill provided it does not contain provisions too onerous for the textile industry (Inside U.S. Trade, March 27). -- Jutta Hennig

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http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/trade-promotion-authority-tpa-bill-timeline-could-push-senate-to-act-116640.html#ixzz3WFCz4UPm <http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/trade-promotion-authority-tpa-bill-timeline-could-push-senate-to-act-116640.html#ixzz3WFCz4UPm>

Trade bill timeline could push Senate to act
By ADAM BEHSUDI 4/2/15 6:38 PM EDT Updated 4/2/15 7:01 PM EDT

Senate aides have circulated a tentative date of mid-April for advancing “fast-track” trade legislation in the recognition that Sens. Orrin Hatch and Ron Wyden have to move quickly to finalize a deal on the bill or risk losing their chance to get it passed by the end of the spring session, several lobbyists and congressional sources have told POLITICO.

Under the proposed schedule, the senators would introduce the trade promotion authority bill on April 13, the day lawmakers return from their two-week recess, followed by a Senate Finance Committee hearing April 15 and a markup on April 21, the sources said.

Negotiations between Hatch (R-Utah), who chairs the committee, its ranking member Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) are taking place at the staff level over the spring congressional break and “continue to make progress,” Hatch spokesman Julia Lawless said, confirming only that the senator hopes to move legislation “this spring.” Wyden has sought to include provisions to give Congress more power and oversight over the fast-tracking of trade deals.

Quick movement on the bill, which the White House is seeking to expedite congressional consideration of a sprawling Asia-Pacific trade deal, could send Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell the signal to carve out floor time in the upcoming six-week legislative period — a session that will be jammed with major issues ranging from the budget reconciliation process to political fallout over the nuclear energy deal with Iran, and from cybersecurity legislation — a priority of the Kentucky Republican — to the highway funding bill.

Meanwhile, the fate of Trans-Pacific Partnership with Japan and 10 other Asia-Pacific countries hangs in the balance. The legislation is considered vital for easing congressional passage of the deal, which would be the biggest in world history, because it would shield it from amendments and put it to a simple up-or-down vote. 

Before countries put their final offers on the table, they’ve said they want assurance through the legislation that lawmakers won’t be able to tear the agreement apart during congressional debate — and their trade ministers have been growing more vocal about the need for the bill as a TPP gathering meant to wrap up the deal approaches in late-May.

Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, in particular has been at an impasse with the United States over agricultural and auto tariff cuts. Its economic minister, Akira Amari, told the Financial Times this week that President Barack Obama needs to step up his efforts to win support for fast track legislation from fellow Democrats.
Chile’s deputy trade minister, Andres Rebolledo, echoed the point in an interview with POLITICO, saying that negotiations could continue in parallel, “But of course we are aware that it’s important to have TPA before the last minute of the negotiation.”

The tentative dates for introducing and marking up the bill could be an effort to create some momentum for its consideration, a trade lobbyist who is following the issue closely said. And, because Hatch scheduled and then postponed a hearing on the bill in late February, he won’t have to comply with the seven-day notification requirement for hearings. But “that doesn’t solve your issue of floor time,” the lobbyist said.

Since negotiations began after the midterm elections, Hatch and Wyden have winnowed down their differences to a handful of issues, including a provision Wyden is pushing that would make it easier to remove trade deals from fast-track procedures if lawmakers’ negotiating priorities aren’t met.

The two sides are also discussing the content of and process for amendments, with Hatch seeking to make the bill’s path to passage as smooth as possible, congressional aides said. The Utah Republican wants not only to protect the bill, but also to give certain vulnerable Republican committee members, such as Rob Portman of Ohio, opportunities for political cover as they go into elections in 2016 where trade could be a sensitive issue, lobbyists and aides said.

At least one opponent, former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, is expected to attack Portman for his pro-trade stance, which could resonate in the manufacturing state. Giving Portman, a former U.S. trade representative under George W. Bush, an opportunity to offer an amendment on currency manipulation or another worker-friendly issue — without substantively changing what Hatch wants in a final bill — could provide the Ohio Republican with some political cover.

Wyden, too, wants to reach an agreement by the end of this recess, a Democratic aide said. But if the two sides can’t reach one then or fairly soon after, observers say the window for passing a bill in the six-week legislative period could close. McConnell initially promised floor time for the measure in the last legislative session, but took it away when it became clear Hatch and the Oregon Democrat couldn’t reach a deal, trade lobbyists said.

“[T]hat floor time was pretty much given away,” one of the lobbyists said.

On the House side, Ryan was undeterred as recently as last week by the Senate Finance panel leaders’ delay in reaching an agreement on the fast-track bill, telling reporters at a pen-and-pad briefing that he planned to move it and other trade legislation in the upcoming session.

“My goal is to mark up as many trade bills as I can in the spring,” the Wisconsin Republican said, ticking off bills to renew tariff-cuts under the Generalized System of Preferences program, which expired in July 2013, and the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which expires in September.

Right now, several Republicans — some of whom are high-ranking — say they have been left out of the substance of the fast-track talks and are leaning against voting for the legislation, another trade lobbyist said. That means the House Republican leadership will need to do some legwork to bring the conference in line once a bill is introduced, the lobbyist said, adding that intense, coordinated lobbying would have to happen to get sufficient votes in just a few weeks.

But a Republican aide said the votes will be there when the bill comes to the floor. “A lot of members — on both sides of the aisle — are hesitant to throw their support behind something right now because legislation doesn’t exist yet,” the aide said, noting that outside lobbying groups have made a significant push in favor of the bill theory.

“I expect that it [a vote] will be close but will feel much more confident once language actually exists and is introduced,” the aide said.

Still, Hatch expressed worry as late as last week that if he and Wyden couldn’t strike a deal in April the fast-track bill might not get passed at all this year. When asked this week how quickly the bill could move, McConnell’s spokesman Don Stewart said, “It’s a priority for the leader, but I don’t have timing yet.”

Victoria Guida and Doug Palmer contributed to this report.

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