[CTC] Latest on Fast Track timing

Thu Apr 9 11:22:24 PDT 2015

Two articles below…

INSIDE US TRADE
Fast-Track Bill Work Moves To Ancillary Issues, Including Add-Ons
Posted: April 09, 2015

As of last week, the chairman and ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee appear to have narrowed their differences on a core procedural provision of a fast-track bill enough to have aides work out options for members to consider upon return from Easter recess, and begin focusing on ancillary issues, according to informed sources.

Among the ancillary issues that aides have begun to address are the consultation provisions that will be included in a fast-track bill and what other trade legislation will move with it, such as a reauthorization of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program, sources said.

This has led some sources following the negotiations to conclude that the key procedural issue of stripping a potential future trade agreement of fast track is very close to being definitively worked out. Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) seem to know how they will resolve the larger issues in the TPA negotiations, a congressional source said.

At the same time, aides involved in the negotiations continue to insist that there is still no formal agreement on these core issues of the bill, which would renew fast track, also known as Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). Prior to recess, principals gave some direction to staff in the hope they could work out clear options for members to consider when they return, according to informed sources.

No agreement has been reached on the potential add-on trade legislation, which raises both substantive and procedural questions, sources said. One informed source said members in the Senate are beginning to talk about offering potential amendments on other trade programs, which he interpreted as a sign that the committee leaders have made clear that these programs will not be addressed in the core TPA bill.

On TAA, sources perceive early indications that Wyden will not insist on the reauthorization of the program in its expanded 2009 version, as advocated by Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA). One congressional source said that there is some feeling that Wyden’s priority has been securing strong procedural provisions in the fast-track bill and that he will be more flexible on TAA to the point of accepting a weaker version of the program.

The idea of potentially reducing the cost of the program may be driven by the perception that this would make it more palatable to Republicans in the Senate and the House who now oppose it, sources said.

At press time, there seems to be no definitive answer on whether a bill can be introduced next week immediately after Congress returns from Easter recess, as principals had hoped. A congressional source said that he expected the bill to be dropped as early as next week, with a hearing called the same week on short notice.

This source pointed out that there does not to have to be new notice of hearing since Hatch had already announced one for Feb. 26 that was meant to be a place holder for a substantive discussion on a fast-track bill, but was subsequently suspended after Wyden and Hatch failed to reach a deal in time. Principals are aiming to have the Finance Committee mark up a fast-track bill <http://insidetrade.com/node/147080> on April 21.

One source noted that the issue of which other trade bills would move in the context of a TPA would not have to be settled before a TPA bill is introduced but would have to be clear before a committee markup. According to the source, it would be hard to imagine some Democratic senators voting for TPA without a clear understanding on how TAA will be handled.

Some sources expect the introduction of the TPA bill to be preceded by a briefing of other Finance members and their staff, especially given the fast time table its supporters envision once it is introduced.

A congressional source said Wyden has provided credible assurances to Finance Democrats that they will not be “jammed” by action on TPA. This source interpreted this commitment as entailing some sort of meeting prior to introduction where member staff would be briefed on the bill text or view it.

Other trade bills that are likely to be add-ons <http://insidetrade.com/node/146927> are the renewal of the now expired Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program and the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), as well as a customs reauthorization bill.

One source said it is unclear whether legislation reforming the process of creating a Miscellaneous Tariff Bill would be included in the package and a congressional source said the inclusion of MTB legislation would be a “bridge too far.”
Sorting out how to move these provisions will be particularly difficult for TAA and involves a decision of what version of the program to reauthorize, as well as whether to include it in the core TPA text or to add it via amendment, a pro-TPA lobbyist said.

The amendment option may be too uncertain for Democrats, but including it in the bill text may increase the risk of losing Republican votes, the source said.

Also unresolved is the issue of how to handle currency manipulation – if it will be part of a bill, offered as an amendment in the committee or on the floor, or whether a currency bill will move separately but concurrently with fast-track, the source said. Another source said that Hatch has made it clear he will not include new currency provisions in the TPA bill or move a separate currency bill.

Sources have said that Hatch and Wyden may want to fight off amendments in committee, so that the major fight over amendments would take place on the floor. But a congressional source pointed out that Wyden may not want to be too firm in limiting amendments so as not to anger Finance Democrats.

If Republicans were to insist on a clean TPA bill, it could mean the possibility of two votes in the Senate, and potentially two separate markups, a pro-TPA lobbyist said.  But it would be clear that the first vote on the TPA bill could not take place until the details of the second vote on the other trade package, particularly TAA, are worked out, he said.

The tight Senate schedule that supporters envision for a TPA bill schedule is largely driven by the need to produce a bill quickly in order to have a shot at Senate floor time in May or June. But another consideration seems to be the hope that the introduction of a bill will also make it possible to get a firmer vote count, particularly in the House.

One informed source said that supporters may go forward with a TPA bill in the House even if they have only 15 Democrats supporting it. However, another source said that if TPA supporters are not able to lock in 20-25 Democratic votes in the House within 10 days after the bill's introduction, the House may not go forward with a vote.
The possibility of getting floor time is shaped by the Republican leadership’s priorities, which two sources said include as must-do items the budget, appropriations bills, the debt ceiling, and a resolution on the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. By contrast, they said the leadership considers tax reform and passage of a fast-track bill as something that would be “nice to do.”

On TAA, the congressional source speculated that Hatch, who is openly opposing the program and wants the Senate to consider it as a stand-alone bill, may not put up too much of a fight on TAA. He noted that there are actually some Republicans on the Finance committee for whom TAA could be a win going in to the 2016 election cycle, such as Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH).

Portman is one of eight Finance Committee Republicans up for re-election in 2016. The others are Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Mike Crapo (R-ID), John Thune (R-SD), Richard Burr (R-NC), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Tim Scott (R-SC). Finance Member Dan Coats (R-IN) was also up for re-election but has announced he will not seek another term. One Democratic lobbyist said the three Senate Republican races likely to be very close are those of Sens. Ron Johnson (R-WI), Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Toomey.

Sources have previously speculated that Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is adamant that he will only move a fast-track bill with Democratic support because he recognizes the potential political peril to Republican senators up for re-election in such states as Pennsylvania or Illinois if they are seen as the sole advocates of controversial free trade policies.

The TAA bills pending in the Senate and House would reauthorize the 2009 expanded version of the TAA program. They are sponsored by Brown and Smith, respectively, who want to move them as part of the fast-track bill. The Senate bill, S. 568, has attracted 39 other senators, while the House bill, H.R. 1088, has 41 other co-sponsors.

The 2009 version of TAA expired in Dec. 2013, and a base version expired on Dec. 31, 2014, but has been funded until Sept. 30, 2015. The 2009 is broader because it covers services workers and workers who have lost their jobs due to trade with non-free trade agreement partners, such as China.

POLITICO

Congressional aides: No deal yet on TPA

4/9/15 11:18 AM EDT
House and Senate trade leaders haven’t reached a deal on trade promotion authority legislation despite Commerce Secretary Penny Pritkzer’s statement today that a bill could be introduced next week, congressional aides said.
“There still is no agreement,” a spokesman for House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan said.
“Our staff continue to talk with [Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin] Hatch and [Ways and Means Committee Chairman] Ryan on TPA,” said a spokesman for Sen. Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Finance Committee.
The three lawmakers have been negotiating for months on an updated version of TPA legislation introduced last year and expectations have been high they will introduce a bill after lawmakers return next week from their two-week spring break.
But none of the three principals have confirmed that timeline and it remains possible that the introduction of the bill, which Hatch originally hoped to unveil in February, could continue to slip.
“I don't have anything new on this,” a spokeswoman for Hatch said. “Negotiations are ongoing.”
— Doug Palmer

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.citizenstrade.org/pipermail/ctcfield-citizenstrade.org/attachments/20150409/bbafe2be/attachment.htm>