[CTC] McConnell: TPP Timing in Obama's Hands (plus two more)

[Arthur Stamoulis]

Three articles on TPP timing below.  Cliff Notes version: it’s up to us to prevent the TPP from moving forward in 2016…


http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade/2015/12/omnibus-would-repeal-oil-export-ban-cool-customs-bill-vote-likely-to-slip-into-2016-mcconnell-tpp-timing-in-obamas-hand-211789#ixzz3uacckb6J <http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade/2015/12/omnibus-would-repeal-oil-export-ban-cool-customs-bill-vote-likely-to-slip-into-2016-mcconnell-tpp-timing-in-obamas-hand-211789#ixzz3uacckb6J>

MCCONNELL: TPP TIMING IN OBAMA’S HAND: It’s still up in the air whether Congress will vote on the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement next year, but neither McConnell nor House Speaker Paul Ryan ruled out that possibility during separate interviews at a Politico Playbook Breakfast event on Tuesday. 

McConnell seemed to dial back comments he made last week to the Washington Post, when he cast doubt on whether the deal could pass in 2016. But he suggested Obama would be taking a gamble if he submits TPP to Congress before the election, since all of the Democratic candidates for president and many of the Republican candidates oppose the agreement. 

"If the president wants to succeed, he ought to take into account the reality of the political situation," McConnell said. "It's up to him to decide whether to initiate the process.”

Ryan said it's "very possible" for the deal to come up next year, but Republicans were still evaluating the terms of the agreement. "The ambition is right where it ought to be," he said, referring to size of the 12-nation pact covering 40 percent of world GDP. "The question is, does the agreement deliver on the ambition?”

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the administration continues to be optimistic Congress can and should pass TPP “in a timely fashion. And we’ll work closely with Speaker Ryan and Leader McConnell to get it done.”

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Washington Trade Daily
Volume 24, Number 250 Wednesday, December 16, 2015
 
TPP Next Year in Congress
 
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisc) said yesterday he thinks chances are good for a House vote
on the TransPacific Partnership agreement next year, although he declined to set a time frame for action
– either before the after already scheduled “lame duck” (WTD, 12/15/15).
 
House lawmakers have raised a number of concerns about the trade pact, the Speaker said. But
the agreement also offers “a lot of promise.”
 
Lawmakers need time to make sure the deal lives up to that promise,” Mr. Ryan told a program
sponsored by Politico. “The ambition is right where it ought to be,” he said. “The question is – does the
agreement deliver on that ambition.” If members of Congress conclude that it does deliver, “then we
want to move as soon as we can.”
 
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) – speaking at the same event – also did not
rule out a vote next year. But he made clear he continues to believe action should come after the
November elections. Most of the current candidates for President – from both political parties – oppose
the TPP, he said. Given that, if President Obama wants Congress to approve the TPP, “he ought to take
into account the reality of the political situation.”
 
The senator said he is “disappointed” by the trade deal, but has not made up his mind whether to
support or oppose it.
 
Regardless of his views on TPP, Sen. McConnell said he does not regret his successful push for
Trade Promotion Authority earlier this year. It was important to get TPA in place both for President
Obama and the next President.
 
Customs
 
Speaking to reporters later in the day, Sen. McConnell said he is not sure whether the Senate will
take up the conference report on customs facilitation and trade enforcement legislation (HR 644) before
Congress adjourns for the year. He downplayed the significance of putting off a vote until next year,
pointing out that the Senate will reconvene within a few weeks. The House passed the conference report
last week (WTD, 12/14/15).
 
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) told WTD that opposition to a
provision attached to the conference report making the ban on Internet taxes permanent is a big
roadblock to Senate passage. It is unclear whether there are enough votes to overcome a likely point of
order that the provision is not germane to the trade bill, he said.
 
The Internet tax ban is not the only point of contention, however, as Democratic senators also
are unhappy with the inclusion of House language barring the Administration from dealing with
greenhouse gas emissions in trade agreements and what they see as weaker language on currency
manipulation and human trafficking.
 
But Sen. Hatch said he believes there is “enough for everyone” in the customs bill to eventually
convince senators to vote for its approval.
 
As lawmakers rush to finish up work before the first session of the 114th Congress ends, they are
moving closer to resolving a trade dispute with Canada and Mexico over US country-of-origin labeling
rules for meat (WTD, 12/15/15). Washington faces some $1 billion in retaliatory tariffs if it does not
repeal COOL, which a World Trade Organization dispute settlement panel found violates international
trade rules. Senate Agriculture Committee ranking Democrat Debbie Stabenow (Mich) – who up until
now has opposed repeal – told reporters yesterday she expects COOL repeal will be included in the fiscal
year 2016 omnibus appropriations bill. Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kans) also said agreement
has been reached to put COOL repeal on the omnibus bill.
 
Lawmakers were still working out the final details of the omnibus bill yesterday.
Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid (Nev) said one of the remaining sticking points is over
whether to lift the decades-old ban on US oil exports. The White House – and most Democrats – oppose
lifting the ban. But Sen. Reid said Democrats might be willing to accept it if measures promoting
renewable energy also are included.
 
House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (Md) told reporters it is also unclear whether the oil
export ban repeal would be on the omnibus appropriations bill or companion legislation extending
expiring tax provisions. The two bills are expected to move in tandem in the House – perhaps as early as
today, according to Speaker Ryan. Sen. McConnell said he hopes the Senate would take up the
measures today as well.
 
=====

Inside US Trade
Ryan Punts On TPP Vote Timing, Says W&M Still Weighing Deal; McConnell Downbeat

Posted: December 15, 2015 
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) on Tuesday (Dec. 15) punted on the timing of a vote on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), saying House Republicans are still deciding whether it reflects the necessary “ambition” and will move “as soon as we can” if they decide that it does.

At an early morning event in Washington hosted by Politico, Ryan was asked whether he foresaw a vote on the trade agreement in 2016. "I think it's very possible, I just don't know when," the speaker responded.

Ryan stressed the potential value of TPP, but added the caveat that the substance of the deal is still being evaluated by the House Ways & Means Committee. “The question is does the agreement deliver on the ambition. And if we conclude that it does, than we want to move as soon as we can,” he said.

Ryan’s tone stood somewhat in contrast to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who spoke separately at the same event. McConnell was expressly downbeat about the substance of the agreement -- while stopping short of opposing it -- and suggested that the political climate is not right for any deal to pass at least in the near term.

“I'm really not decided yet on the deal that he negotiated. It could have been, from my point of view, a lot better,” McConnell said, adding that he did not regret working to pass Trade Promotion Authority. The majority leader has objected to TPP’s carveout for tobacco control measures from investor-state dispute settlement.

McConnell last week told the Washington Post that President Obama should not submit <http://insidetrade.com/node/151615> TPP to Congress before the presidential elections. One day after the interview, a McConnell spokesman offered another statement by the Majority Leader that seemed to walk back the earlier comments.

“As I’ve said, there are many concerns up here on the Hill with this agreement -- from Democrats and Republicans alike. But trade is critically important to our economy and national security. So I think the president should consult with Congress on the timing and path forward of this important issue,” McConnell said in the statement.

McConnell at today's event focused on the fact that the upcoming elections as making the political environment more difficult for TPP.

“You’ve heard trade discussed -- all of the Democratic candidates are against the deal, many of the Republican candidates are against the deal. If the president wants to succeed he oughta take into account the reality of the political situation,” he said.

He repeatedly sidestepped questions about whether that means TPP should be voted on during the lame-duck session or under the next president. “I think he oughta take into account the obvious politics of trade at the moment in our country,” he repeated.

 

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