[CTC] More on the July TPP round

[Arthur Stamoulis]

Several articles below...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/07/business/international/trade-deal-negotiators-see-a-wrap-in-late-july.html <http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/07/business/international/trade-deal-negotiators-see-a-wrap-in-late-july.html>
 
 
Pacific Trade Deal Negotiators See a Wrap in Late July

 
The New York Times
By Jonathan Weisman
July 6, 2015
 
WASHINGTON — With a final accord in sight, the 12 nations negotiating a trans-Pacific trade agreement linking 40 percent of the global economy have set a last round of talks for late July on the remaining issues on the most ambitious trade deal in a generation.

Outstanding controversies include access to Canada <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/canada/index.html?inline=nyt-geo>’s agriculture market, Australian concerns over American pharmaceutical patent rules, Peru <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/peru/index.html?inline=nyt-geo>’s rain forest management, Chinese components in Vietnamese textile exports and labor organizing rights in Vietnam <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/vietnam/index.html?inline=nyt-geo> and Mexico <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/mexico/index.html?inline=nyt-geo>. The dispute over access to Canada’s protected dairy and poultry markets is so fierce that some participants say they believe Canada could drop out of the talks.

But the prize remains a massive trade zone stretching from Canada andChile <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/chile/index.html?inline=nyt-geo> to Australia and Japan <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/japan/index.html?inline=nyt-geo>. It would be a legacy-defining achievement for President Obama, who showed last month he was willing to forsake most of his party to achieve it. Mr. Obama was able to persuade only 41 of Congress’s 234 Democrats to vote to give him expanded trade-negotiating powers — or trade promotion authority — and Democrats now want him to make good on producing a deal more of them can support.

“They have a decision to make: Do they want to achieve broader bipartisan support than they got for T.P.A. or don’t they?” asked Representative Sander Levin of Michigan, ranking Democrat on the Ways and Means Committee and an observer at the talks.

United States officials feel confident enough a deal is at hand that they have scheduled a meeting among the chief negotiators at the Westin Maui Resort & Spa in Hawaii during the last four days in July and have notified Congress that they expect this to be the last one. Still, it will be some time before a deal is ratified. Under terms set by Congress in trade negotiating legislation last month, a July 31 agreement could not be signed until Oct. 31 or more likely the beginning of November. Congress cannot begin considering it until December.

Yet the Office of the United States Trade Representative is projecting confidence.

“It’s not just U.S., but a number of other countries are reasonably confident negotiations can be concluded at this ministerial,” said Daniel Price, a senior international economic adviser in George W. Bush’s White House, referring to the Hawaii talks.

The final push began on Sunday when Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. met with Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada before the Women’s World Cup final in Vancouver. On Monday, Nguyen Phu Trong, general secretary of Vietnam’s Communist Party, arrived in Washington to meet with the United States trade representative, Michael Froman, ahead of meetings on Tuesday with Mr. Obama, Mr. Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry.

Some of the most difficult disputes in the Trans-Pacific Partnership involve Vietnam: governance of its state-owned enterprises, the rights of labor unions independent of state control and Vietnam’s desire to lower or eliminate import tariffs on Vietnamese textiles made with inputs like yarn from China <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/china/index.html?inline=nyt-geo>, a country that is not part of the talks.

On Tuesday, Wendy Cutler, the acting deputy trade representative, will travel to Japan to complete a bilateral agreement over access to Japan’s automotive and agricultural markets. People with knowledge of those talks say the Obama administration is satisfied with Japan’s offer on auto and auto parts exports, as well as pork, beef and wheat. But Japan’s continued protection of rice farming remains a sticking point.

Mr. Froman is expected to travel to Mexico at the end of the week, with more trips planned for next week.

The closeness of a deal has only amplified the delicacy and complexity of the talks. Democrats and unions are pushing Mr. Obama to hold a hard line on labor rights, especially in Vietnam and Mexico, but if those countries cannot be certified as in compliance with the agreement’s union rules, other parts of the deal cannot be put into effect, said Lori Wallach, a critic of the agreement, with Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch <http://www.citizen.org/Page.aspx?pid=1328>. That has politicians in countries like Japan worried they will take a hit for signing an agreement that will not be enforced for years.

The United States is pressing Canada to open its agriculture market, but if Washington cuts its own deal with Ottawa, Australia and New Zealand <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/newzealand/index.html?inline=nyt-geo>could protest. Peru is questioning whether to accept politically difficult environmental protections for its forests if a promised increase to its exports is held hostage to Mexico’s anti-labor practices.

Australia and New Zealand have protested United States insistence linking the accord’s intellectual property protections with patent rules that could slow the adoption of generic drugs in those countries’ national health programs.

Mr. Obama promised repeatedly that he would deliver the most progressive trade accord in history, and “the time for rhetoric has passed,” Mr. Levin said.

Still, the progress is remarkable for an agreement that started in 2008 with just four countries and the United States interested in only a small part of the talks. Mr. Obama’s promised “pivot” in foreign affairs toward Asia gave the negotiations more momentum. Vietnam entered the talks in 2009, changing the tone as capitalist powers began negotiating rules of commerce with a Communist economy. Japan’s decision to join the talks in 2013 gave the proposed accord enormous economic heft.

“I know there are intense feelings in this country about globalization, but the reality is it’s here to stay. We have to shape it,” said Ron Kirk, Mr. Obama’s first trade representative, who pushed the president into the talks. “The underlying rationale for the United States being involved in these negotiations is still compelling.”


http://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-official-sees-deal-on-pacific-trade-zone-in-late-july-1436218457 <http://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-official-sees-deal-on-pacific-trade-zone-in-late-july-1436218457>
 
 
Mexico Official Sees Deal on Pacific Trade Zone in Late July
Trans-Pacific Partnership is taking shape, Mexican minister Guajardo says
 
The Wall Street Journal
By Juan Montes
July 6, 2015 at 5:41pm
 
MEXICO CITY—Mexico is confident that an agreement on a major free-trade pact spanning the Pacific Ocean can be reached in late July in what would be a milestone with the potential to reshape economic ties between Asia and the Americas, a top government official said Monday.

“Around 10% of issues are still to be agreed, but I hope we can seal an agreement in a final round of negotiations at the end of the month,” Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardosaid in an interview. He said leaders could sign an agreement before the end of the year.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership would lower trade barriers and set new standards for business investment among 12 countries of the Pacific rim, including the U.S., Japan, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Chile and Singapore.

The group would have combined economic output of about $28 trillion, or around 39% of global gross domestic product. Some experts consider the partnership to be the most ambitious trade deal since the North American Free Trade Agreement was signed in 1993, linking the U.S., Canada and Mexico in a free-trade zone.

One of the main outstanding issues is the exact terms for intellectual-property protection, Mr. Guajardo said, as the U.S. has been pushing for stronger copyright protections and broader protection for patents.

Final details on access to several politically sensitive markets such as the U.S. and Japanese agricultural sectors and on some investment agreements among participants have also yet to be resolved, he added.

The negotiations recently accelerated after U.S. President Barack Obama <http://topics.wsj.com/person/O/Barack-Obama/4328> was granted in late June wide powers to negotiate a final deal, allowing him to put the agreement before Congress for an up-or-down vote without amendments.

“That was a very important step. Many of the countries, particularly the Asians, were waiting for this to happen before making their final offers,” Mr. Guajardo said.

The Trans-Pacific deal could yield annual global income gains of $295 billion, according to a report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, although some detractors in the U.S. have argued that the agreement will translate into lower wages and job losses.

As China isn't part of the agreement, some experts also see the deal as a geopolitical move by the U.S. to bolster its presence in Asia and balance China’s power in the Pacific.

For Mexico, the Pacific trade deal could strengthen its position in fast-growing Asian markets and increase limited trade exchanges with the region. In 2014, more than 80% of Mexico’s nearly $800 billion in total trade was with the U.S., Canada, Europe and Latin America.

Aside from Nafta, Mexico has signed free-trade agreements with 46 countries, including the European Union and many Latin American countries. But in Asia, Mexico’s only trade agreement is with Japan.

“Our strategic alliances in Asia have been limited to Japan. The Trans-Pacific pact would allow us to change that,” Mr. Guajardo said.

Mexico currently exports mostly minerals, oil and food to its main Asian trade partners China, Japan and South Korea. The bulk of Mexican imports from those markets are components and accessories for local automotive and electronic goods assembly.

Write to Juan Montes at juan.montes at wsj.com <mailto:juan.montes at wsj.com>

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/pacific-trade-talks-said-to-resume-in-sign-deal-may-be-near <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/pacific-trade-talks-said-to-resume-in-sign-deal-may-be-near>
 
 
Pacific Trade Talks Said to Resume in Sign Deal May Be Near
 
Bloomberg
By Carter Dougherty
July 6, 2015 at 10:40pm
 
Top officials from 12 Pacific nations negotiating a free-trade pact plan to convene in Hawaii at the end of this month for a final push, according to two people briefed on the plans, an indication they may be nearing a deal.

The U.S. Congress last month expanded negotiating authority for President Barack Obama, setting up a potentially deal-clinching meeting of trade officials. The negotiators are tentatively planning to meet on the island of Maui, at the Westin Resort & Spa, according to one person briefed on the plans.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership would wrap together countries from the U.S. to Japan to Malaysia, representing about 40 percent of the world’s economic output.

Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Institute of International Economics, said the planned high-level negotiating session suggests officials from most or all the countries believe an agreement is within reach now that Congress approved the negotiating authority Obama sought.

Even so, trade negotiations often involve delays and the trade ministers may need to involve their heads of state to close the final deal later this year, Hufbauer said.

“I think a deal is close but end July seems optimistic,” Hufbauer said. “The end of August seems more likely.”

Trevor Kincaid, a spokesman for Michael Froman, the U.S. Trade Representative, declined to comment.

Confidential Draft
The agreement, now a confidential draft, includes 29 chapters ranging from trade in traditional goods to rules on the free flow of data -- aimed at preventing trade barriers to Internet-based commerce -- and rules on intellectual property.

Some of the thorniest issues remain traditional ones. The U.S. is pushing Japan to open up its long-protected agricultural market for beef, pork, dairy and rice products. Japan, in turn, is seeking the end of U.S. tariffs on cars and trucks for its auto industry.

Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Wendy Cutler will travel to Japan this week to work on the U.S-Japan part of the overall agreement, according to one of the people briefed on the talks. It would not take effect unless the entire Pacific deal is definitively concluded.





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