[CTC] Politico: White House confronts TPP timing doubts

[Dolan Mike]

" ...In addition, key U.S. sectors like pharmaceuticals and tobacco are unhappy with what they already know about the final agreement, raising questions about how forcefully the business community will push for TPP in the face of what is expected to be an intense effort to defeat the pact by labor groups ... Ultimately, chances for the agreement's passage could depend on whether Obama can build enough support on the Democratic side to offset any Republican losses over tobacco, pharmaceuticals and other controversial provisions."

/s/Mike Dolan

Teamsters

White House confronts TPP timing doubts
By Doug Palmer

10/28/2015 12:03 PM EDT

President Barack Obama is signaling that he plans to push for approval of a landmark trade agreement in the first half of next year, rather than waiting nearly 15 months for a "lame-duck" vote on the Trans-Pacific Partnership pact.

He has dispatched U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman to Capitol Hill to brief lawmakers, invited supportive Democrats to the White House for a presidential sales pitch and sent Cabinet members around the country in an "all-of-government effort," similar to the push to win trade promotion authority.

"We're heading into a critical period for this effort," Froman said Tuesday in a speech at the Atlantic Council in which he argued approval of the trade deal was vital from both economic and geo-strategic perspectives.

Froman declined to say when the White House intended to submit the deal to Congress, noting that countries are still working to finalize the text based on the agreement reached three weeks ago in Atlanta. However, his comments gave no indication Obama intends to wait until after the November 2016 elections to push for a vote.

Still, a cloud of uncertainty surrounds the pact, prompting speculation it might not be brought before Congress until after the 2016 elections, when it might be easier to pass - or even that it could be left for the next administration to renegotiate. That's partly because most lawmakers and business groups are waiting to see the text, which has not yet been released, before taking positions. In addition, key U.S. sectors like pharmaceuticals and tobacco are unhappy with what they already know about the final agreement, raising questions about how forcefully the business community will push for TPP in the face of what is expected to be an intense effort to defeat the pact by labor groups.

But after senior aides to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner said the trade deal might not go to a vote before the November 2016 election, Obama invited the 28 House Democrats and 13 Senate Democrats who backed fast-track trade promotion authority this summer to a White House reception to drive home the message that the push to win TPP approval was already in full swing.

"They gave no indication they will be satisfied with a lame-duck strategy," Rep. Ron Kind (R-Wis.), chairman of the New Democrat Coalition, told POLITICO after the event. "Theoretically, this could still come up in the early months of next year."

The administration's offensive includes Froman riding the train up to Vice President Joe Biden's home state of Delaware to promote the pact, four days after it closed. Both Democratic Sens. Tom Carper and Chris Coons voted for trade promotion authority and told reporters they were inclined to support TPP if the final details were as good as the White House promised.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack has also been on the road, visiting California and Washington to sell farmers on the benefits of the pact. Some farm groups, such as the National Pork Producers Council and American Soybean Association, are early advocates of the agreement, helping to offset criticism from labor and environmental groups.

Elsewhere in the administration, the Commerce Department has begun pumping out a series of reports<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f15847bba19178e972842c7737f41557f06f596c349161ff437d0f4f66d90131> examining how certain sectors and states will benefit from the agreement, while Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker regularly stumps for the pact.

Obama also has talked up the agreement himself, brushing aside negative remarks Democrat presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton has made about TPP, which have fed into the perception the trade deal is too hot to handle in an election year.

"I'm pretty confident I'll be able to persuade a whole lot of people, once they see the outlines of the deal, that it's the right thing to do," Obama said at a joint press conference with South Korean President Park Geun-hye, whose country is pressing to be allowed into the pact.

Obama is expected to meet with leaders from the 11 other TPP countries - Japan, Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Chile, Peru, Australia and New Zealand - in mid-November, when he visits the Philippines and Malaysia for a pair of regional summits.

Taking on critics like Clinton, the AFL-CIO and the Sierra Club environmental group, Obama touts TPP as the highest-standard trade agreement ever in areas like labor and the environment. He has also stressed the economic benefits of the deal's market-opening provisions and its geo-strategic importance in a region dominated by China, two themes that administration heavy hitters are weaving into their remarks.

"By building partnerships through principle, openness, and high standards, TPP will help reduce regional instability and cement American influence and leadership in this fast-growing region in the world," Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said in a statement hailing the conclusion of talks.

"The TPP will provide a near-term boost to the U.S. economy, and it will shape our economic and strategic relationships in the Asia-Pacific region long into the future," Secretary of State John Kerry added, echoing arguments Clinton made when she was America's top diplomat.

Since his meeting with Park, Obama has called new Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to talk about the importance of enacting TPP into law in the 12 member states. He discussed the agreement on Monday with Indonesian President Joko Widodo, whose country is one of many that have expressed interest in joining the pact, along with Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, Colombia and Costa Rica.

Still, Froman might look with envy on Kerry, who had to wait only two months for Congress to decide the fate of the controversial Iran nuclear deal reached in July. As much as the White House might like to move that quickly on the TPP deal, there are timetables built into the trade promotion authority law passed this summer that make it impossible for Congress to vote on the pact until at least February or March.

First, Obama has to give Congress 90 days' notice before signing the agreement and also must release the text to the public at least 60 days in advance. Since he has not done either yet, the earliest the pact now could be signed is late January or early February. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission has up to 105 days after the notification to issue a report on the economic benefits of the agreement, potentially delaying action another two weeks.

At the other end of the calendar, there could be very little legislative business of any type between the Democratic and Republican conventions in late July and when voters to go the polls on Nov. 8, if past election years are any guide. However, amid the 2000 presidential election, the Senate voted in September to approve "permanent normal trade relations" with China, while the House voted in May to approve the controversial trade deal.

Potential Democratic supporters, such as Kind and Rep. Gerry Connolly of Virginia, are urging a vote as early as possible next year to get it out of the way before the congressional primary season begins. Once Obama submits the agreement, Congress has 90 legislative days to approve or reject it, without making any changes. Given the stakes, Froman has said the administration would consult closely with Congress before sending it to the Hill.

Still, views expressed in the coming weeks could decide whether Congress votes on the TPP at all next year. Neither McConnell, nor the House's expected next speaker, Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), have endorsed the pact. Both are waiting to see full details, while expressing concern about some high-profile provisions resolved during the final days of talks in Atlanta.

At the same time, they have not publicly ruled out a vote in the first half of next year. "There is considerable flexibility in the scheduling of trade agreements and there will be consultation between the White House and Congress on the timing of TPP's consideration," McConnell spokesman Don Stewart said.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) has been the most vocal Republican, saying he fears the administration may have strayed too far from the bipartisan consensus reflected in the fast-track bill, which passed the House, 218-208, and the Senate, 60-38.

Some Republicans are unconvinced the Obama administration's insistence on making the labor and the environment provisions fully enforceable will pick up votes on the Democratic side, and are worried that final provisions which deny tobacco companies certain investor protections and provide shorter-than-hoped monopoly marketing rights for "biologic" pharmaceuticals may lose votes among Republicans who voted for trade promotion authority.

Froman says he's confident the administration can overcome those concerns by explaining to lawmakers how their constituents will benefit.

"Trade votes are always hard. They're always a challenge But I think we start on a good foundation," Froman said in an interview. "We're going to be sitting down with members on both sides of the aisle to make the case that the TPP will benefit the economies of their states and communities."

Meanwhile, a huge collection of groups calling itself the U.S. Coalition of TPP has been tweeting in favor of the pact, even though key members like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable are still mulling whether to support the deal.

With many critics already attacking the pact, "the TPP coalition is not prepared to sit back and have complete silence from the business community," said Tucker Warren, a coalition spokesman.

The long pause between the conclusion of the agreement and the release of the text is feeding uncertainty about the deal's fate, even among lawmakers predisposed to vote for it, like Kind and Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the two Democratic co-chairs of the bipartisan Friends of the TPP Caucus in the House.

"I think all of us are waiting to see what the text says and review what's in there," Meeks told POLITICO. "I'm a big proponent. I think it's a historic deal. But I'm going to look and see what's in there because the devil is always in the details."

Ultimately, chances for the agreement's passage could depend on whether Obama can build enough support on the Democratic side to offset any Republican losses over tobacco, pharmaceuticals and other controversial provisions. "I'd be surprised if he doesn't" get more Democrats, Kind said, when asked about that.

"I think they exceeded expectations when it came to workers' rights, when it came to environmental standards, human rights provisions," Kind said. "And in the tough last-minute negotiations, where they broke in the final deal was toward arguments Democratic members were making."

If more Democrats don't come on board, the White House could have a bigger challenge - mining support among the conservative Republicans who refused to vote to give Obama fast-track authority but who have supported trade deals in the past.

That's at least theoretically possible, since some members of the House Freedom Caucus, including Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who opposed TPA, voted for free trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama that Obama sent to Congress in 2011.


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