[CTC] Trade deal to be signed, but presidential politics could doom passage

Wed Feb 3 13:10:28 PST 2016

POLITICO
Trade deal to be signed, but presidential politics could doom passage

By Doug Palmer
02/03/2016 02:57 PM EDT

U.S. trade officials will join 11 other nations Wednesday in a highly choreographed signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But the pomp in New Zealand is colliding with an unpredictable presidential contest back home whose crosscurrents are making congressional approval look like an increasingly heavy lift.

Leading candidates in both parties, from Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, are bashing the landmark deal negotiated by the Obama administration for more than five years.

Contrarians argue the tough campaign talk on TPP may actually encourage congressional Republicans to embrace it, fearing a historic missed opportunity to anchor the United States strategically and economically in China's backyard if they fail to act.

"I think the negative views of many presidential candidates create tremendous pressure to get it done this year," said Ed Gerwin, a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, a moderate Democratic think tank.

Otherwise, the agreement could remain on the back burner as a new president assembles his or her administration and decides whether to reopen negotiations, Gerwin said. There's also the risk the deal could never become law at all.

But other uncertainties may also hinder passage, including concerns by many mainstream Republicans about pharmaceutical, tobacco and other provisions. Many Democrats, meanwhile, feel uncomfortable supporting a deal opposed by labor and environmental groups, notwithstanding provisions the administration says impose new labor and environmental standards as the price of participation.

"I would simply repeat what I've said publicly," Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters Wednesday after discussing the outlook for the TPP with Obama and House Speaker Paul Ryan at the White House. "It is my advice that we not pursue that, certainly before the election," because of the opposition of top Democratic and Republican presidential candidates.

At the same time, McConnell noted "some would argue it's not fair to the voters" to wait for the lame-duck session to vote on the pact since that would deny them the opportunity to express their own views about a particular lawmaker's stance on Election Day. 

"What we agreed to do is to keep talking about it," the Kentucky Republican said, providing a beam of hope for the administration that a vote could occur. "There are a number of flaws here. We're going to keep talking about it, and see if there's a way forward."

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, one of the strongest critics of how the administration handled intellectual property rights protections for a new class of medicines called biologics, said the White House needed to sweeten the pot for Republicans.

"I've chatted with the president," the Utah Republican said. "I've chatted with the chief of staff down there at the White House. They know they have to accommodate some changes."

Primary peril

With the presidential primary season just starting, the temptation for candidates to pummel the agreement in search of blue-collar votes will only increase.

Sanders, one of the toughest critics of the TPP, proved his viability as a contender for the Democratic nomination by nearly tying Clinton in the Iowa caucus. Any chance that he will quickly fade from the race now seems remote, putting increased pressure on Clinton to harden her opposition to the agreement as the two vie for votes in primaries in union-heavy states like Michigan and Ohio in March and Pennsylvania in April.

During Clinton's unsuccessful 2008 race against Obama for the nomination, both candidates made some of their harshest statements about trade agreements during the Ohio primary fight, setting the stage for a freeze in trade liberalization during the first two years of Obama's administration. 

On the Republican side, both Sen. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, who finished first and second, respectively, in the Iowa caucus have criticized TPP, with Trump employing some of the toughest rhetoric of any candidate.

Even Sen. Marco Rubio, who previously described TPP as a crucial pillar of U.S. foreign policy and finished third in Iowa, is now undecided on the pact, in line with the cautious position many Republicans have taken.

At a press conference Wednesday with Democratic lawmakers and other opponents of the pact, AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said he believed the TPP was dead in the water.

"Just look what happened in Iowa on Monday night," he said. "The two top vote getters on each side oppose the TPP. This agreement is toxic. The American people are not buying it and no photo op will change the fact that millions of working people are united in opposition to TPP."

Rep. Rosa DeLauro, who has led the charge against the agreement in the House, added at the press conference that Trump and Cruz's "outspoken" opposition to TPP appears to be influencing when it might come to the floor for a vote.

"I think there is a division [in the Republican Party]," the Connecticut Democrat said. "I don't think the leader in the Senate would like to bring up a positive vote before an election that would put his folks in the crosshairs."

"I think it really is about politics," she added, while acknowledging that Republicans also have a number of concerns with the deal that are holding up action.

Simon Rosenberg, founder of the center-left think tank New Democrat Network, said the upsurge in conservative, anti-establishment sentiment in Congress and the national stage aren't helping the TPP's chances.

"There's been a lot of turmoil in the Republican party this year," Rosenberg said. "The speaker was disposed and there are insurgents roiling the presidential race. There's just a lot of uncertainty on their side about the direction of their party.

"But the thing is, there's time here," he said. "It looks like there's a window to shoot for passage this in the late spring, early summer, pre-convention time period, after the nominees have been picked and things have kind of settled down. And I'm still hopeful that would happen. I don't think anyone should rule it out." 

Tight time frame

From Wednesday's signing, Obama has less than a year to persuade lawmakers to approve the deal. But the window of opportunity is actually much smaller because Congress is unlikely to vote on the pact before it receives a study on its economic impact from the U.S. International Trade Commission, expected in mid-May. 

In addition, Obama's ability to force Congress to vote on the measure is limited, even with the "fast-track" trade promotion authority bill approved last year.

That law requires Congress to vote yes or no on the agreement, without making any changes, within 90 legislative days of getting the deal from Obama; the time frame is even tighter in the House, which is required to vote on the measure within the first 60 legislative days.

Obama also must send Congress a draft Statement of Administration Action for implementing the agreement at least 30 calendar days before submitting it for a vote. Even if that happens in the coming weeks, it's unclear the Senate will be in session enough days this year to actually force a vote in that chamber. 

In essence, that means the White House must build support for the agreement before submitting the pact for a vote - a task that U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said the administration hopes to accomplish by working with lawmakers in the coming weeks and months. 

"It's imperative we move forward" because of the costs of delay to both the U.S. economy and leadership, Froman told reporters in a phone call on his way to New Zealand for Wednesday's ceremony. "I'm confident coming out of the signing we will be able to continue our work with congressional leadership, with members on both sides of the aisle to do just that."

The ground game

Last year, in the face of intense opposition from labor groups, the White House managed to persuade just 28 Democrats in the House and 13 in the Senate to vote for the fast-track bill. The administration hopes to do better this time by highlighting how individual districts and states will benefit from the pact, which was harder to do during the fast-track debate because the deal was still being negotiated in secret.

One test of whether that strategy will work are the primary races for the 28 House Democrats, which begin on March 1 and continue through August.

If lawmakers who stood with Obama on trade promotion authority lose their primaries because unions are withholding support, it could be hard for the White House to persuade additional Democrats to support TPP, particularly if Clinton and Sanders are trying to top each other in opposition to the pact. 

Former Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-Ariz.) said the presidential candidates' opposition would make it hard for many Democrats to vote in favor of the pact during the primary and general election.

However, the trade deal could gain approval in the lame duck if Clinton is elected and signals her acquiescence to get the issue off her plate, but that would require "some fancy footwork" on her part, Kolbe said.

Meanwhile, Obama needs Republicans to provide the bulk of support in both the House and the Senate. However, the final TPP deal alienated many GOP members - including McConnell - by barring tobacco companies from challenging certain anti-smoking measures under dispute settlement provisions of the pact that are available to all other investors.

McConnell is also probably worried about vulnerable senators in swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania who may be loathe to vote on the agreement before the election, Kolbe said.

Rep. Dave Reichert, a Washington Republican who chairs the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade, has estimated the tobacco provision alone could cost the White House as many as 10 to 15 votes for the pact, potentially putting it below the level needed for victory, given last year's tight 218-208 vote on TPA.

The administration has hoped to gain votes among the two-dozen or so conservative House Republicans who have supported trade agreements in the past, but voted against Obama fast track authority. But if Cruz and Trump continue to criticize the agreement, that may not be fertile ground. 

"So far, the White House has said to us that they don't plan on presenting it to the Hill until we're ready," Reichert said.

But when that will be is anybody's guess. Froman said the administration will continue to work with Republicans leaders and members of Congress to find the "most conducive" opportunity for a vote.

Greenberg said he thought it would "unfortunate" for the House and Senate Republicans who worked so hard last year to get fast-track bill passed to turn around and walk away from the trade deal.

"If they delay a year for the next president, there may not be a TPP there on the other end," he said.

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