[CTC] Much ado about TPP, and other literary allusions in Politico's trade policy update

[Dolan, Mike]

Dateline Davos: " ... Froman said he was busy answering questions and figuring out which issues can be resolved. He said he is optimistic that those concerns can be addressed quickly. 'And we are looking to [business groups and members of Congress] also to come forward with their ideas on how we might do so,' he added."

(There are some other voices and other ideas you should listen to, Mr. Ambassador)

I think VG may have majored in English.
MFD :: IBT


Much ado about TPP

By VICTORIA GUIDA<http://www.politico.com/staff/victoria-guida>


01/21/16 10:00 AM EST

With help from Doug Palmer and Adam Behsudi

MUCH ADO ABOUT TPP: At long last, New Zealand announced Wednesday that it will host the signing ceremony for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal on Feb. 4 in Auckland, ending weeks of suspense over the timeline.

Story Continued Below

"Following signature, all 12 countries will be able to begin their respective domestic ratification processes and will have up to two years to complete that before the agreement enters into force," New Zealand Trade Minister Todd McClay said in a statement.

The signing sets the stage for the Obama administration to send Congress the final text of the agreement for review and a Statement of Administrative Action detailing how it plans to implement the pact. That, in turn, sets the stage for negotiations between the White House and Congress on implementing legislation for the agreement, with a vote possible before lawmakers adjourn for the summer in mid-July in the best-case scenario for the administration.

Countries have been widely expected to sign the agreement in early February, but earlier the same day at a press conference U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said the new Canadian government was still making it's mind up about the pact. The New Zealand statement seemed to imply all 12 countries would sign the pact, but there was no immediate word from Ottawa. Click here to read the statement:http://bit.ly/20g1dkR.

IT'S THURSDAY, JAN. 21! Welcome to Morning Trade, where we decided to go literature themed for today. What do you think will be the title of Froman's autobiography? Send titles and tips to me:vguida at politico.com<mailto:vguida at politico.com> or @vtg2<https://twitter.com/vtg2>.

FROMAN IN THE LAND OF HEIDI: Yodel-ay-hee-hoo! Froman is in Davos, Switzerland, today for the World Economic Forum, an annual meeting of global political and economic elites held amidst the snow-covered beauty of the Alps.

Froman is expected to meet on the sidelines with European Union Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström and at least "one or two" trade ministers from Trans-Pacific Partnership countries, according to USTR's press office. A meeting of trade ministers from countries involved in the Trade in Services Agreement is also expected on Saturday.

The chief U.S. negotiator is also slated to appear on a panel Friday to discuss the United States' priorities for 2016. But he apparently won't participate in a press conference earlier in the day to discuss a set of trade policy options prepared by a group of experts known as the E15 Initiative, even though the WEF website says he's slated to attend.

TPP PERSUASION: Speaking of the ambassador, Froman is sending the message that he's listening to calls from business groups and some members of Congress to address their complaints with TPP through the way it is implemented, as well as other avenues.

"At this stage, we're talking with stakeholders, members of Congress, and we're looking at the various stages that TPP goes through, including, once it's approved, there's a period of time between approval and entry into force, to look at how it's implemented," Froman told reporters at the U.S. Conference of Mayors' winter meeting. "Obviously there's enforcement issues as well. ... We want to use all the tools we have available to us to make sure we're addressing all the underlying concerns."

Froman said he was busy answering questions and figuring out which issues can be resolved. He said he is optimistic that those concerns can be addressed quickly. "And we are looking to [business groups and members of Congress] also to come forward with their ideas on how we might do so," he added.

U.S. MAYORS' GREAT EXPECTATIONS: The U.S. Conference of Mayors has joined the TPP fight, and mayors from Tampa, New Orleans, Atlanta, Little Rock, and West Sacramento, Calif., made it clear at the press conference with Froman that they intend to push hard for the deal. West Sacramento Mayor Chris Cabaldon said part of their support means backing up federal lawmakers who support the deal.

"Ami Bera is the congressional representative from the Sacramento area in California - he supports the agreement," he said. "And part of what we're saying is we will be there with our members of Congress in our communities to stand with them as they take action to support passage of TPP." Bera, one of 28 Democrats who voted for trade promotion authority, has faced strong public criticism from labor unions.

Cabaldon also passionately spoke about the need for TPP. He noted that many of his constituents are worried about the prospect of a new trade deal. "One of the things we're constantly asked about the trade agreement, or about trade more generally is, 'Aren't you worried about disruption, dislocation?' And, yes, we are," he said. "You also need to ask some of our local taxi drivers about the disruption, not from local trade but from Uber and Lyft." He also cited competition for restaurants from food trucks.

"The sense of chaos and disruption is a fundamental part of our modern economy, and trade is only one of many examples," he said. "So not advancing trade agreements doesn't prevent that dislocation. It simply sticks our heads in the sand."

TO KILL A CUSTOMS BILL: Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said "work continues" to build support for stripping out a permanent Internet access tax ban from pending customs legislation, even if it comes at the expense of a bill that will beef up trade enforcement. "I think we're moving in the right direction," he said after the Senate caucus lunches on Wednesday.

"The customs bill has its own set of problems," Durbin said. "I think you'll find when cloture is called that it's going to be a struggle for them to pass it."

The customs bill is part of a conference report, which the House passed last month. On top of the addition of the Internet access tax moratorium, the conference report contained weaker language to combat currency manipulation and provisions on climate change and human trafficking many Democrats opposed. Senate Republicans have demanded at least 10 or 11 Democratic supporters in order to meet the cloture threshold of 60, which would also be needed to overcome a possible point of order Durbin could raise to try to strip the Internet tax language from the report.

THE BILL'S GRIM PROGRESS: Sen. John Thune said leadership still has the goal of bringing up the conference report for a vote this work period but was unsure about whether the votes would be there to carry it through.

"I don't know whether they are there or not," he said Wednesday before the Senate caucus lunches. "I've had conversations with the Democrats, with the White House, of course with our members. I would hope if it's brought up we would be able to pass it, but it is still fluid at this point."

Thune, who ranks third on the GOP leadership team, said it's likely the bill will be able to pass if "pro-trade Democrats vote the way they have in the past." Thirteen Democrats voted for trade promotion authority legislation over the summer.

THE CHINA DEFICIT ALSO RISES: The U.S. trade deficit with China could widen further this year to a record level, but slapping tariffs on imports from the world's second-largest economy as Republican front-runner Donald Trump has suggested won't bring jobs back to the United States, John Frisbie, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council, argued on Tuesday night.

"To try to apply tariffs and raise prices [on goods] from China is not going to drive production back here as much as it's going to drive production to some other foreign location," Frisbie told reporters during a call on the group's priorities for 2016. "What we import from China is stuff we imported from elsewhere before. It wasn't made in the U.S. and suddenly went to China."

Still, Frisbie acknowledged the trade gap with China could continue to widen in 2016, providing fuel for one of Trump's talking points. Final trade figures for 2015 are expected to show the bilateral deficit increased about 8 percent to around $365 billion. That's because U.S. imports from China continued to grow in 2015, but U.S. exports to the Asian powerhouse took a slide because of slower economic growth there. Those same trends could continue in 2016, he said.

THE CALL OF THE BIT: The U.S. government's main focus, Frisbie insisted, should be on persuading China to reduce market access barriers to both U.S. exports and investment. One way to do that is through a bilateral investment treaty, which the USCBC hopes will be concluded this year. But Beijing should also move unilaterally to ease foreign ownership restrictions throughout its economy, Frisbie said, arguing that would help create a more favorable environment in the Senate when any treaty is put to vote.

Frisbie said he expected China to issue a revised "negative list" offer in the investment talks before the end of March. That designates which sectors China wants to keep closed to foreign investment and by implication which ones it is willing to open up.

GOLDMAN SACHS: CHINA IN CATCH 22: Meanwhile, a new report from financial services giant Goldman Sachs describes the "great dilemma" facing the Chinese government in the face of a slowing economy and a sharp drop in its stock market that heralds the need for more economic reform and a rebalancing of its economy toward domestic consumption.

"China is walled in. If the reforms are implemented too quickly, the country risks a sharp slowdown," the report said. "If the reforms are implemented too slowly, or not at all, China risks an unsustainable increase in its debt-to-GDP ratio, which could push the country past the tipping point into economic and, in all likelihood, political instability."

The report concludes that China has "both the will and the resources to avert a hard landing" in 2016, but makes a glummer assessment for the longer term. To read more, click here: http://bit.ly/1JiBbcG<http://bit.ly/1JiBbcG>.

INTERNATIONAL OVERNIGHT

Japan's TPP Minister Akira Amari is facing claims that he took illegal payments, but says his memories of the meeting in question are "fuzzy," Bloomberg reports: http://bloom.bg/1OHsiGl.

The United States has surpassed China as the top destination for foreign investment, The Wall Street Journal reports: http://on.wsj.com/1naOO35.

Textile manufacturing is starting to move away from China because of stagnant demand, according to the South China Morning Post: http://bit.ly/1SyqyoS.

India and Australia are hoping to wrap up their free trade talks in the next few months, The Hindu reports: http://bit.ly/1lxD9u0.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade/2016/01/much-ado-about-tpp-froman-in-the-land-of-heidi-tpp-persuasion-212271#ixzz3xzC9dtgJ


Michael F. Dolan, J.D.
Legislative Representative
International Brotherhood of Teamsters
Desk  202.624.6891
Fax    202.624.8973
Cell    202.437.2254

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