[CTC] How Trump and Clinton teamed up to sink trade

[Arthur Stamoulis]

Reminder: Best way to prevent the TPP in lame duck and beyond is ensuring the votes aren’t there to pass it in the House


http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/pacific-trade-trump-clinton-225504#ixzz4EOsa7m8k <http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/pacific-trade-trump-clinton-225504#ixzz4EOsa7m8k> 

How Trump and Clinton teamed up to sink trade
Their bipartisan antipathy has the Pacific trade pact on death's door. 
By Burgess Everett <http://www.politico.com/staff/burgess-everett> and Doug Palmer
07/14/16 05:15 AM EDT


There’s one thing that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have done together this campaign: Cripple trade deals.

In a striking divergence from typical Capitol Hill fingerpointing, Democrats and Republicans alike are declining to blame each other for the dimming prospects of passing the sweeping free trade deal with 11 Pacific Rim countries. Instead, there’s bipartisan agreement that it’s all the fault of Trump and Clinton, both of whom strongly oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Not long ago, approving new trade deals stood as the best chance for a divided Washington to build some kind legislative legacy during President Barack Obama’s last two years. But that was before Trump called TPP a “rape” of the country — a declaration that underscores growing divisions in a GOP that for years had been the standard bearer for free trade. 

Simultaneously, Bernie Sanders offered withering criticism of trade deals, driving Hillary Clinton away from an agreement with Pacific Rim countries she once called the “gold standard” of such agreements.

That rhetoric has convinced members of Congress that the TPP can’t pass — and it may not even get a vote while Obama is still president.

“I don’t see, with both major candidates for the presidency against it, how it’s going to come up. I think that’s a big issue,” said Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), a free trade supporter who wouldn’t say how she’d vote. Even after the election “I personally think it’s very unlikely.”

“You’ve got two candidates for president that have both come out against it. That probably has a lot do with it,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). “It may be that we have to wait and see if the new president … if she can negotiate an even better deal that will alleviate some of the fears people have about it.”

Accordingly, prospects are so poor now on Capitol Hill for mustering a mere majority in the House and Senate that congressional leaders are barely entertaining even lame duck votes on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Chief vote counters in the Senate say they aren’t sure that TPP could win 50 votes. That indicates the kind of sea change that’s happening around trade — the Senate mustered 60 votes to pass Trade Promotion Authority last year, which allows TPP and other trade deals to evade the filibuster’s 60-vote threshold.

“I’d be skeptical,” said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas), who supports TPP.

“I can’t see a reason to do it if you have such strong opposition from both presidential candidates,” said Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who opposes the pact. “It doesn’t portend well for the outcome … I think it is questionable.”

This week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan left the door slightly ajar for a lame duck vote — which has heartened trade boosters in the administration and business groups that are pressing for approval of the deal now

But all they can do is pray for action in November or December: Once Trump or Clinton becomes president, the prospects for quick action on the deal will dim even further.

“It’s premature to write off TPP in 2016. Politicians are right now distracted by the upcoming conventions but at an appropriate time this fall we believe there is a window for securing Congressional passage of TPP,” said Myron Brilliant, executive vice president and head of international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

“Look, TPP is facing a lot of headwinds, as you’ve heard from folks on the Hill,” said Linda Dempsey, vice president of international economic affairs at the National Association of Manufacturers. “It looks like the best opportunity is after the election.”

But in interviews with several swing votes on trade, senators like Ayotte, McCaskill and Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.) were noncommittal on the TPP. There’s no reason for them to take a firm position until a vote is scheduled, but at the same time waffling from lawmakers doesn’t do much to force McConnell or Ryan to act.

There will only be a short window to do so after the election: McConnell, Ryan and Obama are all supportive in principle of TPP. But that will change in January with an anti-TPP president and, if the Senate changes hands, the new majority leader will be Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who has been deeply skeptical of new trade deals.

Meanwhile some senators up for reelection have made no bones about their plans to vote against TPP — even after they no longer have to consider their electoral prospects.

“I wouldn’t be worried about it. I’d vote no. I’m against it and I’ve been clear on that,” said Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio).
Free trade advocates are relying on lame duck conversions from skeptical lawmakers to push them across the finish line.

For Portman, TPP’s currency manipulation language is not strong enough. For North Carolina Sens. Thom Tillis and Richard Burr, the removal of some legal protections for tobacco is a non-starter. And for Sens. Orrin Hatch and Mike Lee of Utah, language preserving the rights of developers behind new drugs called biologics is far too weak. Without those senators, a whip count that started at 60 for new trade deals with the approval of Trade Promotion Authority dwindles quickly — though White House officials say that those critics haven’t offered any solutions.

In addition to specific policy concerns, internal politics are also a major headache for each party. For Democrats there’s an awkward intraparty dance going on: Clinton opposes TPP, but Labor Secretary Tom Perez said on TV this month that he still supports it. He’s also on the shortlist for her vice presidency — but is currently working for Obama.

“I don’t get it,” said Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington, another swing vote. “Tom Perez on one side and both sides in the same [TV appearance] is like, ‘OK?’ It’s confusing.”

Meanwhile McConnell is loathe to divide his conference on any matter at all, let alone a controversial issue like trade. The bulk of his members were on his side when TPA was approved, but Trump’s rise has his senators up for reelection torn between their free trade leanings and their party’s nominee. Plus, if McConnell or Ryan were to hint at votes anytime this year, they’d risk the wrath of Trump, whose political core is governed by opposition to free trade and illegal immigration. If Trump were to lose to Clinton, they’d have no such fear.

Now trade supporters are second-guessing the timeline that got them here. When Democratic Leader and trade critic Harry Reid lost his title as Senate majority leader in 2014, finally the door was open for the president to push through TPA and clinch new trade deals. But it was late June of last year when TPA passed — and Trump and Sanders were already on the rise.

By the time the deal with Pacific Rim countries was cinched in October, the presidential race was in full tilt and anti-trade rhetoric was gaining more and more currency. Now Republicans have struck TPP references from their party platform and Clinton on Tuesday called TPP among those “bad” trade deals that have hurt the economy — remarks made while getting Sanders’s endorsement

And now, senators say, it may be too late to salvage TPP in Congress.

“The current administration kept dragging their feet,” said Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.). “The fact that [TPP] was still being debated and rushed to a conclusion in the middle of a presidential election was not helpful.”

Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/pacific-trade-trump-clinton-225504#ixzz4EOs9dXx2 <http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/pacific-trade-trump-clinton-225504#ixzz4EOs9dXx2> 
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