[CTC] Business Lobby on Trade in the Elections

[Arthur Stamoulis]

A couple different takes on the the corporate lobbyists views of trade in the elections...

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/03/15/business-lobby-election-season-trade-opposition-will-blow-over/ <http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/03/15/business-lobby-election-season-trade-opposition-will-blow-over/>
Business Lobby: Election-Season Trade Opposition Will Blow Over

Eric Morath
Mar 15, 2016 5:14 pm ET 
A couple of major presidential candidates have made rolling back free-trade agreements the centerpiece of their campaigns <http://www.wsj.com/articles/free-trade-loses-political-favor-1457571366>, drawing widespread support across the U.S. But one of the nation’s top business advocacy groups isn’t worried.

The next president will support trade once elected, said John Engler, president of the Business Roundtable, whose members are chief executives at the country’s largest corporations.

“Trade at election time can be pretty negative,” said Mr. Engler, a former Republican governor of Michigan. “Then after the election, we get the right things done.”

His view reflects the business community’s calm demeanor in the face of Donald Trump, the Republican frontrunner, calling to “100%” redo U.S. trade deals.

“We are getting absolutely crushed on trade,” Mr. Trump said at debate earlier this month in Detroit. <http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-confronts-attacks-in-gop-debate-1457064132> “I say free trade, great. But not when they’re beating us so badly.”

Expanding free trade, including ratifying the Trans-Pacific Partnership <http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2015/10/05/trans-pacific-partnership-at-a-glance-2/>, is among the policy tools that could boost economic growth above a sluggish 2% pace, Mr. Engler said. The negative tone of the campaigns toward trade deals won’t make it easier for Congress to approve the TPP this year, he said, but he’s not worried about the future president.

That includes Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, who opposes the final version of the TPP <http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-calls-for-tougher-rules-on-auto-imports-1457839448>, and Bernie Sanders.

“The Clinton family has a history of supporting trade,” Mr. Engler said, noting President Bill Clinton’s approval of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Caterpillar Inc. chief executive Doug Oberhelman, chairman of the roundtable, said candidates who are antitrade need to consider the alternative. Other countries are actively seeking to link up, and the U.S. risks being left out, he said.

China “would like to control the trading system in the Pacific,” he said. He added that the U.S. economy’s capacity to grow is limited if businesses serve only domestic customers.

The roundtable doesn’t endorse candidates, but Mr. Engler said he was “very proud” of Republican candidate and Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s ability to equate trade to economic growth in his state.

A Business Roundtable survey <http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/03/15/ceos-plan-less-hiring-and-see-growth-slowing-in-2016/> released Tuesday showed 54% of CEOs polled thought the TPP would have a “positive effect” on their ability to grow their business. Only 2% said it would have a negative effect.

The same leaders were slightly less bullish on employment, with 44% saying TPP would have a “positive effect on their company’s ability to support existing U.S. jobs.” Again, only 2% saw negative consequences. The survey polled 141 CEOs between Feb. 10 and March 2.

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BRT: Anti-Trade Campaign Rhetoric Impacts Congressional Support For TPP
Inside US Trade, March 15, 2016
 
The head of the Business Roundtable (BRT) this week acknowledged that the anti-free trade rhetoric of the presidential primary elections has made it more difficult to garner congressional support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but said that any new president would ultimately be likely to back the deal to improve the economy.
 
This rhetoric “certainly doesn't help,” said BRT President John Engler in a March 15 press call. “We would all concede that the negative tone is never a great way to encourage 'yes' votes.”
 
Engler also tried to make the case that support for TPP shown by governors on a bipartisan basis disproves fears that members of Congress will be forced by their constituents to oppose the trade pact or else lose their public office. He argued that both governors and members of Congress respond to the same constituents.
 
But a business lobbyist said last week that the anti-trade campaign message turns up the heat on members of Congress who are up for re-election in industrial states to come out against the deal.
 
In a related development, the U.S. Coalition for TPP on March 15 sent out a notice touting the benefits of trade with TPP countries in the states of Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Florida, where primaries were being held that day.
 
The TPP coalition also sent out editorials from three newspapers opining on “the dangers of anti-trade rhetoric for local economies and jobs.” These documents were circulated by Hamilton Place Strategies, public relations firm, on behalf of the coalition.
 
The same public relations firm, which also handled the fight for fast track on behalf of BRT last year, on the same day offered to “separate fact from fiction” in the anti-trade message emanating from the campaign trail at a March 16 event hosted by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM). It will feature NAM VP Linda Dempsey, former U.S. Trade Representative Carla Hills, and Hamilton Place Strategies founding partner Tony Fratto, according to the March 15 announcement.
 
 In the press call, Engler argued that anti-trade rhetoric can be chalked up to political messaging to appeal to voters and said he was confident that candidates will eventually support TPP. “There's nothing new about candidates running who are opposed to trade deals and to trade agreements and the concept of trade,” he said. “What would be newsworthy is if after they were elected they held the same position, and that's to be determined.”
 
He pointed to presidential candidate Bill Clinton, who criticized the NAFTA while running for president but was its champion once elected in 1992.
 
“I think we have a lot of history where trade -- and I certainly know this coming from Michigan -- trade at an election time that talk can be pretty negative and then afterward we end up generally getting the right things done. . . . What you hear in the build up of campaigns is largely aberrational and will go back to the mean after the campaigns are over,” said Engler, a former Michigan governor.
 
The anti-TPP campaign rhetoric got a boost over the weekend, when presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton said its rule of origin for cars were too weak and would allow too many Chinese components to be used. One anti-TPP lobbyist said this is a deepening of Clinton's TPP criticism and that it would be very difficult for her to agree to move TPP forward without renegotiating the auto rules of origin.
 
Engler also pointed out that any new president will ultimately see the economic rationale for the TPP when faced with a U.S. economy that is not running on all cylinders, and free trade will inevitably be a way to promote growth.
 
“I don't think that when you start making those decisions you're going to conclude that erecting trade barriers or canceling previously negotiated trade deals is the smart way to go. . . . When we get to the end of this year and the beginning of the new administration and they're going to think 'what can I do to fix the domestic economy,' they're going to go back to trade, taxes and regulations.”
 
Notwithstanding these difficulties, the BRT will continue its push for a vote on the TPP this year, said BRT Chairman Doug Oberhelman and the Chairman and CEO of Caterpillar on the same press call. “Our intention is certainly to push as far and as fast as we can on the agreement now and work with congress and the administration to get a vote as soon as we possibly can to make sure we get [TPP] turned into law in 2016,” he said.
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