[CTC] A Calmer Mexico Sees Trump Anew: As a ‘Bluffer’ at the Poker Table

[Arthur Stamoulis]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/27/world/americas/mexico-trump-nafta-trade.html?emc=edit_tnt_20170427&nlid=46745373&tntemail0=y <https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/27/world/americas/mexico-trump-nafta-trade.html?emc=edit_tnt_20170427&nlid=46745373&tntemail0=y>
A Calmer Mexico Sees Trump Anew: As a ‘Bluffer’ at the Poker Table

By KIRK SEMPLE <https://www.nytimes.com/by/kirk-semple> and ELISABETH MALKIN <https://www.nytimes.com/by/elisabeth-malkin>
APRIL 27, 2017 

MEXICO CITY — There was a time when Donald J. Trump <http://www.nytimes.com/topic/person/donald-trump?inline=nyt-per> — first as a candidate and then as president — could rile Mexico <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/mexico/index.html?inline=nyt-geo>without really trying.

His threats to build a border wall and make Mexicans pay for it would ignite firestorms of patriotic fury and resentment. His promises to deport millions of undocumented immigrants would send politicians to draft contingency plans. His vows to re-engineer the North American Free Trade Agreement and bring Mexico to heel would shake the foundations of the state.

But on Wednesday, the suggestion from the White House that Mr. Trump was finalizing an executive order to begin the process of withdrawing the United States from Nafta revealed a different, more experienced Mexico, one that was learning to live with what it considers Mr. Trump’s bluster and stagecraft — and not inclined to publicly react too quickly.

“It seems like he’s sitting at a poker table bluffing rather than making serious decisions,” said Senator Armando Ríos Piter, a Mexican legislator. “In front of a bluffer, you always have to maintain a firm and dignified position.”

Mexican officials did not comment publicly until after Mr. Trump issued a statement, late on Wednesday night, that he was not seeking to withdraw from Nafta, but instead “to bring Nafta up to date through renegotiation.”

Mr. Trump said on Thursday that he had agreed to pleas by President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada that he not pull out of the treaty immediately. He had also come under pressure from congressional Republicans and business leaders alarmed by the possibility that Mr. Trump would move hastily toward a withdrawal.

Mr. Peña Nieto also issued a brief statement of his own, saying that the presidents spoke about “the shared objective to modernize” the trade agreement.

The day’s vicissitudes left many Mexicans with a bit of whiplash — the Mexican peso took a nose-dive — but also with a mild sense of satisfaction that they were finally learning to read the American president.

Eduardo Bravo, past chairman of the Mexican Entrepreneur Association, said he felt relieved by the way the issue was resolved on Wednesday, but warned that there was still a rough road ahead, describing the White House behavior as “very schizophrenic.”

“Really, you have to maintain hope and keep working to maintain the relationship,” he said. “There’s a lot of work to do.”

In interviews with politicians, analysts, economists, business leaders and former diplomats, a general sentiment had emerged throughout the day on Wednesday that Mr. Trump’s threat to withdraw from the treaty using an executive order would mostly be a piece of political theater aimed as much at his voting base as at Mexico and Canada, and not something to get terribly worked up about.

Some speculated that the news of the order was a controlled leak intended to gauge the reaction of the other Nafta parties and put them on the defensive.

“The generous analysis would be that he’s playing brinkmanship and trying to up the ante,” said Arturo Sarukhán, a former Mexican diplomat to the United States. “This is a way to sort of rattle the scabbard and say that he’s got a saber in it and say, ‘If you don’t agree to my demands then I’m going to end up pressing the nuclear button.’”

Still, the news came as a surprise to many who had been watching the process closely.

After months of tough talk by Mr. Trump, his administration had appeared to be on track to begin negotiations over Nafta as soon as this summer. Administration officials circulated the draft of a letter in March that laid out its goals in a negotiation, an obligatory step in the process. The letter seemed to suggest a far more modest approach than Mr. Trump had threatened, leaving much of Nafta intact.

Before talks on negotiations can begin, the Trump administration would still need to consult with several congressional committees and formally notify Congress of its intention to renegotiate the treaty.

In recent weeks, Trump administration officials had expressed frustration with the pace of that process, which has been slowed in part by delays in the confirmation of the administration’s United States trade representative, Robert Lighthizer.

During the day on Wednesday, administration officials said the proposed executive order would trigger a different process for a withdrawal, with a six-month countdown.

But it would not pre-empt the administration from continuing to pursue negotiations, leaving many observers in Mexico to interpret the threat of an order as a transparent, prenegotiation strategy.

Antonio Garza, a former United States ambassador to Mexico, called Mr. Trump’s possible executive order “hardball,” adding, “It’s probably not the way to deal with a counterparty that is both a longtime trading partner and critical to so many security, immigration and counterterrorism initiatives.”

Some speculated that Mr. Trump may have been trying to look tough to appeal to his voting base, particularly considering his mixed record in achieving his goals as the 100-day mark of his term approaches.

“Clearly, in Mexico, this should be seen as a type of tantrum of a spoiled child who did not get the presents he expected for his birthday, for the 100 days,” said Rafael Fernández de Castro, an expert on United States-Mexico relations at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico in Mexico City.

The Peña Nieto administration has publicly adopted a tough stance on Nafta, declaring its readiness to update the treaty but expressing its willingness to walk away from the table and from the trade agreement altogether. Mr. Peña Nieto has in recent weeks sent proxies, including his foreign minister and his ambassador to Washington, to reaffirm those positions.

Mexicans have felt emboldened by the support they have received from prominent members of the American business community and elected officials — including Republicans on Capitol Hill — who have increasingly voiced their backing of Nafta and of the United States’ alliance with Mexico.

At the same time, mindful of Mr. Trump’s hard-line threats and unpredictability, Mexico has been exploring new trade deals with other countries and modernizing old ones.

In congressional testimony in Mexico City on Tuesday, Luis Videgaray, Mexico’s foreign minister, reaffirmed the Peña Nieto administration’s position.

“We are not going to accept any type of renegotiation,” he said. “We prefer, in any event, to abandon the treaty than have a bad negotiation of the treaty, and in this we have been clear publicly and with the government of the United States.”

Mr. Sarukhán said the Mexican government once faced Mr. Trump like “a reindeer caught in the headlights in the middle of the woods,” but had since adopted a more mature position, carefully picking its battles and issuing “surgical, precision-delivered statements on the relationship and playing the grown-up.” This stance, he said, was on display Wednesday.
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