[CTC] Meeting of Ministers Expected to Decide Scope of NAFTA Deal Basics

[Arthur Stamoulis]

Four articles below…

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/04/03/business/03reuters-mexico-nafta.html <https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/04/03/business/03reuters-mexico-nafta.html>

Mexico Expects Meeting of Ministers to Decide Scope of NAFTA Deal Basics
By REUTERS
 
APRIL 3, 2018
 
 
MEXICO CITY — The United States, Mexico and Canada have made significant advances on reworking the NAFTA trade deal and ministers will meet in the coming days to determine the scope to agree on the basics of a deal, Mexico's economy minister said on Monday.
 
Ildefonso Guajardo told Mexican radio he would travel to Washington on Wednesday for ministerial talks, adding that the United States was looking for a "quick solution."
 
He added, "We've made a lot of progress, but on the complex issues, well, it looks like there's a willingness to be flexible."
 
Ministers and negotiating teams have been meeting for weeks to try to narrow their differences, and Guajardo also held out hope for progress on NAFTA at a summit in Peru that begins on April 13.
 
"There will be an opportunity at the Summit of the Americas for the three North American leaders to greet one another, and undoubtedly there could be an opportunity to send proactive messages and instructions at presidential level, irrespective of the fact that there is still technical work to do," he added.
 
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to dump NAFTA if it cannot be reworked to his satisfaction.
 
In the next 12 days, there could be "the principal lines of understanding for solving complex issues" though the three sides were "not there yet," Guajardo said. A longer period would be required to hammer out technical details, he added.
 
"The ministers need to get working together to get things settled," said Guajardo, who has held meetings with his NAFTA counterparts, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer since a last formal round of negotiations ended in Mexico in early March.
 
Guajardo said there was still no date set for another formal round of talks, adding, "It's clear that, given Washington's interest in advancing this process, they didn't want an eighth round."
 
Instead, a ministerial meeting in "around two weeks" would decide what form another round could take, he said.
 
Guajardo said the three were discussing a U.S. idea to have a certain amount of auto production in high-salary areas.
 
Details of the plan began emerging after industry sources said U.S. officials had dropped a demand for at least 50 percent of automotive content to be from the United States, a highly contentious sticking point at the NAFTA negotiations.
 
Such a modification could put Mexico at a disadvantage because of its lower salaries, and Guajardo said its potential impact would need to be evaluated.
 
Besides autos, Mexico's negotiators aim for steps to improve conditions for its agriculture, textile, aerospace and medical device sectors, Guajardo said.
 
(Reporting by Lizbeth Diaz and Dave Graham; Writing by Julia Love; Editing by Sandra Maler and Clarence Fernandez)



NSIDE US TRADE
Navarro on NAFTA 2.0: 'It's got to be soon'

April 02, 2018 
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on Monday that a new NAFTA deal might not be ready to announce at the Summit of the Americas in Peru later this month, but insisted “it's got to be soon.”

Navarro, appearing on CNBC <https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/02/first-on-cnbc-national-trade-council-director-peter-navarro-speaks-with-cnbcs-kelly-evans-today.html>, was asked about the timing of a new deal following a Bloomberg report <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-02/trump-is-said-to-push-for-preliminary-nafta-deal-by-mid-april> saying the White House was pushing to announce an agreement in principle on NAFTA 2.0 at the international gathering, which begins on April 13. Bloomberg reported that only the broad strokes would be revealed, which would free up negotiators to hammer out details over the coming months beyond the spotlight of elections in Mexico and the U.S.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer had been pushing for an agreement in principle by March 31 <https://insidetrade.com/node/162442>, with a legal scrub to be finished by May 1, Inside U.S. Trade reported last week. Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo rejected that time line. A new round of talks was tentatively slated to begin on April 8, though Lighthizer has opposed a formal round in favor of intersessional talks.  He is slated to meet with his counterparts this week, Bloomberg reported.


Navarro said the key factor in the push to finalize a deal soon was the Mexican presidential election, set for July 1. “And you're going to get to a certain point, just like as you do in the American elections, where it becomes difficult to do meaningful policy changes,” he said.

“So, I think whether it's two weeks or 30 days, it's got to be soon,” he added.

Lighthizer, Navarro said, has been doing a “great job” in the talks – but added that “we need to be hopeful about this but not get our expectations up too high. Let's see what happens.”

Trump, however, has again inserted himself into the debate this week with tweets linking his decision on whether to terminate NAFTA to Mexico's cooperation on border security <https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/980451155548491777> and immigration <https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/980794173279342592>. But Navarro, on CNBC, insisted the issue of immigration was separate from NAFTA.

Bloomberg reported that the news of a White House push for an agreement in principle by mid-April eased the fall of the Mexican peso late on Monday, a day when many analysts said a broad stock market fall was attributable in part to fears of a trade war with China stemming from U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum as well as actions to curb intellectual property and forced technology transfer practices.



https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/04/03/business/03reuters-trade-nafta.html <https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/04/03/business/03reuters-trade-nafta.html>

Any NAFTA Deal in Principle Would Focus on Auto Rules: Sources
 
By Reuters
 
APRIL 3, 2018
 
 
OTTAWA — The United States, Canada and Mexico could soon announce a deal in principle to update NAFTA that would likely tackle the key issue of autos content while leaving other contentious chapters to be dealt with later, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
 
After more than eight months of slow-moving talks to update the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Washington is keen to settle the process quickly, citing the need to finish before Mexico's July 1 presidential election.
 
The ministers in charge of the talks are due to meet in Washington this week. If all goes well, the leaders of the three nations could make an announcement about progress on an updated NAFTA at a regional summit in Peru next week, Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said on Monday.
 
Other sources agreed with that assessment on Tuesday, emphasizing that negotiators were focusing on the so called "rules of origin" issue which relates mostly to the auto sector.
 
"What they're looking to do is 'Let's hammer out as much as we can, with the specific focus on automotive, and if we can declare an agreement in principle in Lima that's a good moment for everybody'," said one of the sources.
 
Guajardo said the three nations had made significant advances, adding that the Washington meeting of ministers would determine the scope to agree on the basics of an agreement.
 
The challenge is that a deal in principle might well be so vague on areas of disagreement that negotiators would be faced with many more months of very challenging work with no guarantee of success at the end.
 
The sources, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation, said the three nations had made progress on a U.S. demand that the North American content of vehicles made in NAFTA nations increase to 85 percent from 62.5 percent.
 
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said last week he was "optimistic that we can get something done in principle in the next little bit".
 
But Canada's chief negotiator, speaking the same day, said "significant gaps" remained on many issues, citing the U.S. positions on dispute settlement, government procurement and a sunset clause that would allow one country to quit NAFTA after five years.
 
The sources said the U.S. administration -- gearing up for a possible trade war with China -- did not want to be distracted by NAFTA at the same time.
 
"If they don't do the dispute resolution ... or agriculture, I don't think it precludes them declaring victory in the parts they have (in hand)," said the first source.
 
The sources spoke as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened yet again to walk away from the deal, saying Mexico needed to crack down on migrants crossing the border.
 
A Canadian source familiar with government thinking said it was hard to predict what the meeting in Washington this week could achieve.
 
"These are complex and technical negotiations that encompass a huge number of issues. I think we all agreed to be a little bit realistic ... the important thing is that there is momentum towards meeting," said the source.
 
Mexican chief negotiator Kenneth Smith tweeted on Tuesday that "it will be the substance of the negotiation that drives any potential conclusion".
 
(With additional reporting by Steve Holland in Washington; Editing by Christian Plumb)



https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-threatens-nafta-honduras-aid-over-migrant-caravan-1522763515 <https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-threatens-nafta-honduras-aid-over-migrant-caravan-1522763515>

Donald Trump Calls for Military to Guard Southern Border
President suggests he might use Nafta talks to pressure Mexico to halt protest march of asylum seekers from Central America
 
By Rebecca Ballhaus and William Mauldin
 
April 3, 2018
 
WASHINGTON—President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he planned to enlist the military to help guard the U.S. border, while at the same time he tried to step up pressure on Mexico to stop a protest march of asylum seekers traveling through America’s southern neighbor.
 
Mr. Trump also suggested the North American Free Trade Agreement, which is being renegotiated, could be used to pressure Mexico to do something about the protest march, calling the trade deal “terrible” for U.S. but a boon for Mexico.
 
Earlier in the day, the president tweeted: “The big Caravan of People from Honduras, now coming across Mexico and heading to our ‘Weak Laws’ Border, had better be stopped before it gets there.” He added: “Cash cow NAFTA is in play, as is foreign aid to Honduras and the countries that allow this to happen. Congress MUST ACT NOW!”
 
Later, in comments to reporters, Mr. Trump said: “Until we can have a wall and proper security, we’re going to be guarding our border with the military. That’s a big step.”
 
The Pentagon said it couldn’t provide any additional information about the president’s statement, which he made while sitting next to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.
 
In a news conference later Tuesday with Baltic leaders, Mr. Trump criticized the U.S.’s “horrible, horrible and very unsafe” immigration laws and said he would meet “in a little while” with Mr. Mattis to discuss a plan to have the U.S. military secure the border.
 
“I think it’s something we have to do,” Mr. Trump said.
 
The U.S. military has been deployed to the border before. From 2006 to 2008, then-President George W. Bush deployed more than 6,000 National Guard troops to the border as part of Operation Jump Start, at a cost of about $1.2 billion. The troops helped with tasks such as logistical support while the Border Patrol worked to add additional agents and construct new fencing.
 
President Barack Obama sent a smaller contingent of about 1,200 National Guard troops in 2010 to assist the Border Patrol with illegal crossings and drug violence.
 
Mr. Trump’s threats on Nafta come as American, Canadian and Mexican officials are months into talks to overhaul the 24-year-old trade agreement. Late last month, the parties indicated they had cleared what had been a sticking point on auto-industry issues, a move that could put them on track to reach a possible deal as early as this month. Trade analysts have suggested the U.S. may be interested in a quick end to Nafta talks in light of the administration’s recently announced trade actions against China.
 
The “caravan of people” Mr. Trump attacked Tuesday is an annual event that leaders say aims to raise awareness about the tens of thousands of Central Americans who, facing gang violence and political unrest in one of the world’s most violent areas, flee every year to Mexico or the U.S. Many are turned back, extorted or kidnapped along the way.
 
This year, however, the protest has caught the attention of Mr. Trump, who has attacked Mexico every day since Sunday for not stopping the protesters or migrants more broadly. Mr. Trump has also been lashing out at Congress for not passing a legislative replacement for a program protecting immigrants brought to the U.S. as children, which he ended last year, and he has kept up demands for full funding for his wall on the southern border.
 
“Mexico is doing very little, if not NOTHING, at stopping people from flowing into Mexico through their Southern Border, and then into the U.S.,” Mr. Trump tweeted Sunday. “They laugh at our dumb immigration laws. They must stop the big drug and people flows, or I will stop their cash cow, NAFTA. NEED WALL!”
 
Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray responded to Mr. Trump’s comment Sunday with a tweet of his own denying that his government was doing nothing to control migration. “Every day Mexico and the U.S. work together on migration throughout the region. Facts clearly reflect this,” he said. “Upholding human dignity and rights is not at odds with the rule of law.”
 
Mexican and U.S. officials, facing national elections this year, have pressed for a relatively quick deal on Nafta, while their Canadian counterparts have held out for an agreement that would preserve key structures from the existing Nafta, including a dispute-settlement system that can challenge tariffs levied by the Trump administration.
 
Still, Mexico’s chief Nafta negotiator, Kenneth Smith, tweeted on Tuesday that “it will be the substance of the #negotiation that drives any potential conclusion.” Mexican officials have said previous demands by Mr. Trump that Mexico pay for a border wall are unacceptable and jeopardize ties between the countries.
 
U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer is set to meet Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo in Washington on Wednesday to chart the path toward a possible Nafta deal, according to a spokesman for Mr. Guajardo. Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is tentatively expected to visit Washington on Thursday or Friday, but a spokesman declined to confirm her schedule. A broad group of officials was set to meet in the Washington area this month, but no formal negotiating round has been announced.
 
U.S. lawmakers would get a vote on any significant overhaul of Nafta, and officials are running out of time to reach a deal that could be considered before a new Congress takes office in January. Mr. Trump has sought the renewal of trade authority granted by Congress that expedites passage of trade deals but includes built-in delays for hearings and public comment.
 
Mr. Trump’s threat to cut aid to Honduras is one of a series of such warnings he has issued in the first 14 months of his administration, on which he hasn’t always followed through.
 
The U.S. plans to send $65.8 million in aid to Honduras in fiscal year 2019, according to the State Department, though none of those funds have yet been obligated or spent.
 
Last year, Mr. Trump vowed to cut aid to any countries that didn’t back the U.S. decision to declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel. Months later, the administration signed a more than $6 billion memorandum of understanding with Jordan, whose king had warned Mr. Trump against the move.
 
Mr. Trump has, however, slashed funds for the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, after repeatedly threatening to do so, and he has frozen bilateral assistance to the Palestinians, after repeatedly threatening to do so.
 
—Felicia Schwartz and Nancy A. Youssef contributed to this article.
 
Write to Rebecca Ballhaus at Rebecca.Ballhaus at wsj.com <mailto:Rebecca.Ballhaus at wsj.com> and William Mauldin at william.mauldin at wsj.com <mailto:william.mauldin at wsj.com>
 
 



-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.citizenstrade.org/pipermail/ctcfield-citizenstrade.org/attachments/20180403/2a106bf6/attachment-0001.html>