[CTC] Lighthizer's NAFTA goal: A deal by May and a vote by December

Fri Apr 13 12:48:30 PDT 2018

Politico Pro
Lighthizer's NAFTA goal: A deal by May and a vote by December

By MEGAN CASSELLA <https://www.politicopro.com/staff/megan-cassella> and ADAM BEHSUDI <https://www.politicopro.com/staff/adam-behsudi>
04/13/2018 05:02 AM EDT

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has appeared confident in recent meetings on the Hill and with administration officials that he will be able to reach a preliminary NAFTA deal with Canada and Mexico in the next couple of weeks, with the goal of having Congress vote on a pact by mid-December, three sources briefed on his plans told POLITICO.

The top trade official has also conveyed to lawmakers and administration officials that he wants the agreement to pass Congress with 65 percent support, one of the sources said. Two of the sources said Lighthizer wants the final vote to include support from roughly 20-25 Democrats in the Senate, while one source said he is also looking to win nearly half of the Democratic Caucus in the House.

"He's bullish," one of the sources said, adding that Lighthizer appeared more optimistic than most others in the room during a recent meeting where he laid out his plan. "And we were just like, 'What are you talking about?'"

Lighthizer and other U.S. officials closely involved in the ongoing negotiations have been telling their Mexican and Canadian counterparts that the timeline is being driven by the U.S.' Trade Promotion Authority process, said one of the sources, who's an administration official involved in the talks. The goal is to have something approved before Congress recesses for the holidays, which is supposed to be Dec. 13, according to the current legislative calendar.

Given the strict timeline laid out under TPA legislation, Lighthizer would need to finalize an agreement in principle by May or June to give the Trump administration enough time to follow various procedural steps and still hold a vote under the current Congress, albeit during the lame-duck session after November’s election.

TPA legislation establishes a process whereby Congress grants the administration the authority to negotiate trade deals on its behalf. In the legislation, Congress lays out its negotiating priorities for the executive branch to follow in exchange for an up-or-down vote without amendments.

USTR declined to comment for this story.

Negotiators from all three countries are currently cramming <https://www.politicopro.com/agriculture/article/2018/04/trump-throws-cold-water-on-nafta-timeline-as-negotiators-cram-on-talks-1016254> in talks in Washington. A copy of the negotiating schedule obtained by POLITICO shows officials holding meetings slated to run through Saturday, with some groups scheduled to meet for more than eight hours at a time.

Lighthizer also held ministerial-level talks last week with his NAFTA counterparts, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo, and was expected to meet with them again in Peru this week until he abruptly canceled <https://www.politicopro.com/trade/whiteboard/2018/04/lighthizer-cancels-trip-to-peru-1011758> his trip Thursday.

The goal of reaching a deal by the end of the month is optimistic, given that only six of the 30-odd chapters expected to be in the final agreement have closed so far. But officials have noted in the past that a much larger number are close to completion. Guajardo also said <https://www.politicopro.com/trade/whiteboard/2018/04/guajardo-80-percent-chance-for-nafta-deal-by-early-may-969800> earlier this week that there was an 80 percent chance the three sides could reach a deal by early May.

Lighthizer told reporters at the end of the last formal negotiating round in March in Mexico City that "it's seven or eight months, best-case scenario, between agreement in principle and voting."

That's in part because Lighthizer must formally notify Congress 90 days before signing the final NAFTA 2.0 agreement. After that, the U.S. International Trade Commission must conduct a study that it has up to 105 days to complete — meaning a combined period of 195 days.

“We did tell Canada and Mexico that from our side, what is driving us is getting through the TPA process and getting a vote by the end of the year,” the administration source said. "We need certain clocks to start."

But even as his top trade official drives toward an agreement in principle, President Donald Trump threw cold water on the NAFTA timeline Thursday, telling reporters at the White House that "I'm not pushing it."

"We're getting pretty close to a deal," he said at the start of a trade-focused meeting with lawmakers and governors from agricultural states. "It could be three or four weeks. It could be two months; it could be five months. I don’t care.”

Lighthizer’s goal of earning support from 20-25 Senate Democrats and nearly half of the House Democratic Caucus — somewhere around 90 or 95 members — is also a lofty aspiration when taking into account recent trade votes in Congress. The fight to pass TPA legislation in 2015 that was meant to pave the way for a future vote on the Trans-Pacific Partnership ended with only 13 Senate and 28 House Democrats supporting the legislation, for example.

But it also leaves room for a significant number of Republicans to defect and vote against the new NAFTA while still garnering Lighthizer’s desired 65 percent support.

In the Senate, if 20-25 Democrats vote for the agreement, that means between five and 10 Republicans can vote against it and it would still meet Lighthizer’s threshold.

And in the House, if 90 or 95 Democrats vote for the deal, between 45 and 50 Republicans can vote against it while still allowing it to pass with 65 percent overall support.

“It’s good to hear that he has a plan and good to hear that he’s optimistic that we can come out of this with a strong modernized NAFTA,” one of the sources said. “But I don’t know how that congressional plan works.”
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