[CTC] Trump downplays chances of NAFTA success to farmers

Tue Jan 9 05:32:50 PST 2018

Couple articles on yesterday’s Farm Bureau speech in Nashville..

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-downplays-chances-of-nafta-success-to-farmers/article/2645328

Trump downplays chances of NAFTA success to farmers
by Sean Higgins <http://washingtonexaminer.com/author/sean-higgins> | Jan 8, 2018, 5:50 PM <http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-downplays-chances-of-nafta-success-to-farmers/article/2645328#> 
President Trump appeared to downplay the odds of succeeding in the renegotiation of the 1993 North American Free Trade Agreement, conceding that Canada and Mexico have little incentive to agree to the changes he wants.

"On NAFTA I am working very hard to get a better deal for our country and for our farmers and for our manufacturers," he said in remarks to the American Farm Bureau Federation. "But think of it: When Mexico is making all of that money, when Canada is making all of that money, it is not easy of a negotiation."

Trump devoted only a few lines to discussing NAFTA in the speech. He did not guarantee that he was "winning," as he customarily does.

The sixth round of talks is scheduled to begin Jan. 23 in Montreal and runs through Jan. 28. The round is widely seen as do-or-die for the Trump White House to get the changes it wants.

The NAFTA renegotiations have been strained <http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/mexico-canada-to-reject-trumps-proposed-nafta-changes/article/2637748> for several months. Canadian and Mexican officials rejected U.S. demands to change the rules for determining when a product can be labeled as "made in America" or "made in the U.S.A.," arguing that the changes would damage the auto industry, whose supply chain is spread throughout the continent, according to an official with knowledge of the talks. The administration also is pushing to add an end clause to NAFTA as well as to allow countries to opt out of its investment dispute settlement system, changes the trading partners also object to. The effort has surprised Trump's liberal critics <http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/liberal-groups-pleased-with-direction-of-nafta-renegotiations/article/2640919>, who generally support those changes.

The lack of progress has clearly frustrated administration officials. "Thus far, we have seen no evidence that Canada or Mexico are willing to seriously engage on provisions that will lead to a rebalanced agreement," U.S. Trade Secretary Robert Lighthizer said after the fifth round concluded last year. "Absent rebalancing, we will not reach a satisfactory result."

That has sparked concern from groups such as the Chamber of Commerce that Trump may follow through with earlier threats to pull the U.S. out of the deal. Canada and Mexico are looking to China and the European Union to potentially fill in <http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/mexico-mulls-other-options-should-nafta-talks-fail/article/2639186> for the U.S.

Administration officials say the potential for a deal remains, but said the onus was on the U.S trading partners. "We have put a number of proposals on the table to modernize NAFTA, and critically for agriculture, to address key sectors left out of the original agreement – dairy and poultry tariffs in Canada. Now, we want to see our  negotiating partners step up and engage so we can get the deal done," Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said.

The agricultural industry has been watching the talks with particular interest. Most in the industry believe NAFTA has been a success and saw little reason <http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/usda-seeks-to-reassure-farmers-on-nafta/article/2640372> for reopening the deal, though the dairy and poultry industries wanted changes to Canadian policies.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/08/trump-agriculture-farmers-tennessee-nafta-270000
Trump loves farmers but keeps them guessing on NAFTA strategy
By HELENA BOTTEMILLER EVICH <https://www.politico.com/staff/helena-bottemiller-evich> and MEGAN CASSELLA <https://www.politico.com/staff/megan-cassella> 01/08/2018 07:03 PM EST

President Donald Trump on Monday delivered a campaign-style speech to thousands of farmers that largely dodged one of the most pressing concerns in agriculture — whether Trump intends to blow up the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Farm leaders have lobbied the administration and pleaded with the president to tread carefully in the ongoing renegotiation of the free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico because the agricultural sector has arguably more to lose than any other segment of the economy if trade relations sour in North America.

Trump, in a speech to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual convention in Nashville, Tenn., stopped short of making his oft-repeated threat to pull out of NAFTA if he does not get a reworked deal that is to his liking. But otherwise he offered little assurance to farmers and ranchers who fear the potential loss of important export markets.

“On NAFTA, I’m working very hard to get a better deal for our country and for our farmers and for our manufacturers,” Trump told the audience at the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center. “It’s not the easiest negotiation, but we’re going to make it fair for you people again. We want to see even more victories for the American farmer and the American rancher.”

It was a brief, muted statement that stood in stark contrast to past threats Trump has made. He didn’t issue demands or ultimatums, as he has in the past when discussing NAFTA, nor did he float the prospect of walking away from the negotiating table — but he also didn’t forcefully defend the pact or commit to remaining a part of it.

Trump's typical rhetoric about driving toward a “better deal” for American workers did little to assuage the deep anxiety in the farm sector that the president’s anti-free-trade stances could end up having a catastrophic effect on a farm economy that has been struggling with low prices for the last few years.

“The president needs to communicate to the farmers today that he’s all for a fair, free trade deal with NAFTA,” Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue had said earlier in the day, in an interview on Fox Business Network. “He’s a tough negotiator and he wants a good deal for American farmers and the American people.”

Trump's less-than-enthusiastic show of support for NAFTA came at the tail end of a convention hosted by the Farm Bureau, which generally leans to the right politically, during which pro-trade interest groups sought to spotlight the free-trade deal and the benefits it has brought to the rural community. 

"Today could have been a chance to take withdrawal off the table once and for all,” former Sen. Max Baucus, who co-chairs the advocacy group Farmers for Free Trade, said in a statement to POLITICO. "The continuing specter of withdrawal is not an effective negotiating technique, particularly because right now it’s harming American farmers whose livelihoods depend on certainty.”

In an uncharacteristically scripted speech, Trump, the first sitting president to speak at the Farm Bureau's annual convention since George H.W. Bush, instead focused on the Republican tax law and his administration’s deregulatory push, arguing that the changes will help family farmers.

The president paid particular attention to the fact that the tax plan raised the threshold of the estate tax — often called the "death tax" by opponents — a levy that affects only a small percentage of the wealthiest farmers. Getting relief from the tax has long been a priority of the ag lobby.

“From now on, most family farms and most business owners will be spared ... the punishment of the deeply unfair estate tax, known as the death tax, so you can keep your farms in the family,” Trump said to a standing ovation.

“Obviously, you love your families or you wouldn’t be standing for that one,” he joked. “Not going to help you much. Going to help them a lot.”

The president’s speech only made passing references to agricultural policy. He said he intends to work with Congress to secure timely passage of the farm bill — sprawling legislation that governs most facets of farm and food policy, covers a five-year period and expires at the end of September.

He also gave a strong endorsement of the crop insurance program, a major component of the farm bill that has become more controversial as farmers increasingly rely on it to shore up their incomes. Conservative groups have criticized the program, in part because taxpayers subsidize farmers' premiums.

"I think it's going to go well," Trump said of the farm bill process, getting another standing ovation. 

After his remarks, Trump signed a pair of presidential actions aimed at boosting development of broadband, a serious challenge in large swaths of rural America. One of the actions, a presidential memorandum, will direct the Interior Department to make infrastructure available for broadband deployment, a senior administration official told reporters today, according to a transcript of the call.

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