[CTC] A turning point for Trump’s top legislative priority

[Arthur Stamoulis]

POLITICO Morning Trade
4/29/19
A TURNING POINT FOR TRUMP'S TOP LEGISLATIVE PRIORITY: Several items on the to-do list for USMCA are crossed off or nearly done: The U.S. International Trade Commission report is in, Mexico is poised to pass a required new labor law, and Vice President Mike Pence has launched the promotional roadshow. 

Procedurally, there isn't anything holding up Congress from taking it up, but there isn't quite the wherewithal to do so among House Democrats.

"The path is open, and the question is, will [Congress] do something, or will they put it in a drawer?" notes Shannon O'Neil, an expert on global trade and the U.S.-Mexico relationship at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Trump meets Pelosi: The president is expected to sit down this week with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has not shut down consideration of the deal if the administration responds to certain demand.

But over the two-week break, several leading members of the party seemed as entrenched as ever in pushing for a go-slow approach. Megan has the story on what to expect with USMCA in the coming weeks.

GRASSLEY TAKES A STAND ON STEEL TARIFFS: Senate Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley made the strongest connection yet between a demand that the administration to remove steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico and USMCA's prospects in Congress. 

"If these tariffs aren't lifted, USMCA is dead," Grassley wrote in an op-ed <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a0173110753d4408268238c8841c08a66ae36ea1cd060ce7db70a1dd7a6dac5f355adac3beb52695f112f25a8651b45e> in The Wall Street Journal. "There is no appetite in Congress to debate USMCA with these tariffs in place."

Grassley has been growing frustrated as the process for lifting the tariffs has made little headway. Farmers in his state have been hit hard by retaliatory duties imposed by Canada and Mexico, two of the biggest markets for U.S. agricultural goods.

TECH INDUSTRY MAKES A USMCA PUSH: A dozen tech and software industry groups pressed congressional trade leaders to take up the USMCA, noting that the pact's digital trade rules would "establish a new global norm on addressing challenges confronting global access and usage of the digital trade and investment system." 

The groups also highlight in a letter  <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a0173110753d440826205ede3c3dde8e379cebb0ac8507d09fa9cd1a62af571ae939e208ade968c21a01d7766c158390>sent today that the U.S. International Trade Commission in its impact study featured the digital trade rules as the one part the agreement that would have the most significant effect on the U.S. economy.

CLOCK IS TICKING FOR MEXICO'S LABOR REFORM LAW: Mexico's Senate could pass a major labor reform law as soon as today as required per USMCA. Mexican lawmakers have repeatedly expressed confidence that they can deliver on passing the labor changes before they go on recess at the end of the month. 

Refresher: The new law would overhaul the country's existing labor structure by ensuring workers can organize independent unions and have secret votes when selecting representation. The changes aim to create a more efficient and independent arbitration system for labor disputes. 

It would also require that Mexico review 700,000 collective bargaining agreements within four years. AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka has questioned whether Mexico has the bandwidth to handle that commitment. 



Arthur Stamoulis
Citizens Trade Campaign
(202) 494-8826




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