[CTC] Push Is on to Pass NAFTA by June

[Arthur Stamoulis]

POLITICO
MEXICAN OFFICIAL: PUSH IS ON TO PASS USMCA BY JUNE: The U.S., Mexico and Canada are aiming to get USMCA passed in their respective legislatures by May or June, a top Mexican official said last week. 

"Talk is to ratify before summer. We've entered a very different sense of urgency," Mexican Undersecretary for North America Jesús Seade told Mexican business leaders during a meeting with the Corporate American Advisory Council, according to video obtained by POLITICO. 

Much needed deal: Seade added that failing to pass USMCA would create a "big political headache between Republicans and Democrats," but the harm would be much worse for Mexico and Canada. "For us, it would be a full-blown financial crisis, much more than a political headache. And Canada is completely with us on this," he said. More here <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd90ad77ba01bf34fc47b80944c40140b0bc8775fc3d237730e76d5fbdb0b9595160563f75b25e3e94d8357b01e9943a>. 

Trump won't rule out NAFTA withdrawal: Trump has revived his threat <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd90ad77ba01bf34d6d7692302834bd280e85c96bf9a0a8b9046ec46c08da48043da8b1944d136f45cdf92cdffcacd17> to cancel NAFTA if Congress fails to pass his new trade pact with Mexico and Canada. Asked if he had a "Plan B" if Congress doesn't approve the new pact, Trump told Fox Business that the U.S. could "maybe go pre-NAFTA."

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ITC REPORT WON'T HELP TRUMP SELL USMCA: Trump has lauded the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement as a "truly groundbreaking achievement," but a congressionally mandated U.S. International Trade Commission report on the deal's economic impact is expected to show that the new deal provides only a very slight bump to growth. Some speculate the deal could evenly slightly hurt the economy.

Several congressional leaders say the ITC report — expected to be released around April 19 — will help them make up their minds about the deal. But three trade experts who have been examining the deal told POLITICO to expect a forecast of a minimal increase in the U.S. gross domestic product. 

That could make it tougher for Trump to sell the deal to Democrats and labor groups, who already have a list of changes they would like to see made by reopening the negotiations. 

NAFTA v. USMCA: Nearly all tariffs between the U.S., Mexico and Canada were eliminated under the 25-year-old NAFTA. That means little new growth can come from increased trade in manufactured and agricultural goods. But new market openings in Mexico and Canada for U.S. services exports could offer a small boost to GDP. 

Pro Trade's Doug Palmer dives deeper into what the ITC report could look like here <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b5d5d9b63f376d7a4a8fa1cc98d8f68f1f7e6531b6fd80827009a61d00acd9d85227f8a98eb71be4821c1cd1e35e13f5>.

STEELWORKERS: NO USMCA PASSAGE, UNLESS STEEL TARIFFS AND QUOTAS DROPPED: The United Steelworkers urged Canada not to ratify the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement until the Trump administration has lifted its tariffs on imports of Canadian steel and aluminum. USW specified that quotas aren't going to cut it, either. 

"The federal government, Prime Minister [Justin] Trudeau himself, and all party leaders must be very clear with the Americans that this trade agreement will not be ratified until tariffs and quotas are removed from the equation," said USW Canadian Director Ken Neumann and Quebec Director Alain Croteau in a statement on Friday.

USW added that it's important to maintain "clear unanimity" on the issue ahead of the Canadian elections in October. 

Some companies feel the same: National Foreign Trade Council President Rufus Yerxa said <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b5d5d9b63f376d7a734d21457392dc4263849642bd1370e108628ea3b8d8f2e048db51f513e23486a1140e81ac4472de>Friday that the biggest concern among his group's board members are the Trump administration's steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexico and Canada. He noted that those member companies have a strong view that quotas would "be a bad outcome."

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer indicated earlier this month that the administration is considering import quotas as a possible answer to the tariffs. Lighthizer and administration officials have said in recent weeks that they want to wrap up tariff relief talks with the two U.S. trading partners soon. 

FREELAND COMES TO WASHINGTON: Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland will be in Washington today to meet with Lighthizer. Her office did not provide details on the agenda for her meeting with USTR, but it's likely they will discuss the steel and aluminum tariffs, as well as the path to getting USMCA passed. 




Arthur Stamoulis
Citizens Trade Campaign
(202) 494-8826




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