[CTC] Freshman Democrats skeptical about NAFTA deal by year's end

[Arthur Stamoulis]

Politico Pro

Freshman Democrats skeptical about USMCA deal by year's end
By Sarah Ferris, Heather Caygle 
11/19/2019
 
Freshman Democrats on Tuesday emerged from a trade meeting with a key labor leader with little confidence that the House would vote on President Donald Trump’s trade deal by year’s end — even as top Democrats insist they’re nearing the end of negotiations.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi <https://cd.politicopro.com/member/51564> had organized the meeting between AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka and freshman Democrats in the final stretch of negotiations on USMCA in an attempt to calm some of the frustrations among centrists <https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/18/pelosi-anxious-dems-trumka-meeting-071404> about the slow pace of action.
But multiple first-term Democrats said they left the meeting with few tangible signs of progress, and were largely hearing Trumka and other senior leaders reciting talking points they’ve already heard. Several said they doubted that a deal could reach the House floor by year’s end, denying a legislative win for moderate Democrats. And even Democrats closely involved in the negotiations acknowledged that it’s unclear when they’ll have a deal in hand.
Another Democrat who attended said it seemed like there was little chance that a vote could happen in December — even as freshman lawmakers ramped up pressure significantly on Pelosi and other leaders ahead of a likely vote on impeachment in the coming weeks.
“[Trumka] still says we’re at the five yard line,” said Rep. Jimmy Gomez <https://cd.politicopro.com/member/41337> (D-Calif.), a member of tight-lipped group of Democrats that has been negotiating with the administration since June. “So it feels like we’ve been at the five yard line for a while.”
Several lawmakers “spoke up in concern” about their desire to see a vote on the agreement sooner rather than later, freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi <https://cd.politicopro.com/member/196347> (D-N.Y.) said as he exited the meeting, adding that he also voiced concerns about timing.
Trump has also amped up pressure on lawmakers since impeachment investigations began. He criticized Pelosi as “grossly incompetent” on Tuesday for failing to move the deal forward, adding: “All she wants to do is focus on impeachment.”
But House Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal <https://cd.politicopro.com/member/51543> (D-Mass.), who has been leading talks with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to make changes to the agreement, disputed the characterization that the new trade deal could not reach a floor vote in December. Neal and Trumka met separately with Pelosi following the larger meeting with freshman Democrats.
“We all feel we’ve been at this for a long time and we want to get a deal,” Neal said as he left Pelosi’s office. “But we want to get the right deal, a good deal and a deal that everybody can hold their heads up on.”
Other Democrats close to the negotiations emphasized that while they haven’t struck a deal, they’re prepared to do it quickly if necessary.
Neal insisted that Democrats were close to clinching a deal with the administration, predicting an announcement of an agreement would likely come shortly after the Thanksgiving break.
“I don’t think anybody wants to see this drift into next year,” Neal said, conceding that an agreement within the next week or so is necessary if Democrats want to maintain their timeline of voting on the deal by the end of the year.
Trumka declined to comment as he left Pelosi’s office, deferring to Neal. But in the closed-door meeting with Democrats, Trumka stressed the importance of securing a deal that is enforceable — comparing it to the original NAFTA, which labor and other groups have criticized as having no teeth to ensure all three countries are playing by the rules, according to attendees.
He also urged Democrats to hold firm and not push the agreement forward until the Trump administration had agreed to certain changes, lawmakers said.
“They don’t understand football,” added Rep. Donna Shalala <https://cd.politicopro.com/member/93985> (D-Fla.), former president of the University of Miami and Health and Human Services secretary, said of her freshman colleagues. “He just said we’re on the seventh yard line, we just don’t know which down it is. It’s the red zone — and you know how difficult it is.
Some Democrats, however, are getting anxious as negotiations drag into yet another month, with little floor time remaining before the end of the year. Those Democrats are from agriculture-dependent districts — many of which Trump won in 2016 — where failure to pass the trade deal could carry severe political consequences.
That pressure has intensified, some Democrats say, with the House holding its first impeachment hearings in two decades and threatening to swamp the caucus’s agenda.
Democrats said they’ve been pleading for more updates in ongoing talks between Lighthizer and House Democrats, who have been pushing for changes to the pact’s labor, environmental, enforcement and drug pricing provisions.
Enforcement has long been the top concern for Democrats, who say even strict new standards are meaningless if there is no way to ensure countries are following the rules. The primary worry is whether Mexico will allocate enough funding and resources to implement labor law reforms the country passed earlier this year.
Satisfying those concerns is key to getting labor leaders like Trumka on board with the agreement — or at least to remain neutral. The labor leader has told Democrats that his group will ultimately take a yes or no position on the agreement, but gave no indication on Tuesday which way he was leaning.
“I am absolutely convinced that labor sees this as a once in a lifetime opportunity to get not just a better NAFTA, but a template for better trade deals for many, many years to come,” said Rep. Tom Malinowski <https://cd.politicopro.com/member/118453> (D-N.J.). “It’s an opportunity they don’t want to miss, we don’t want to miss, but to seize it, it has to be enforceable.”
Arthur Stamoulis
Citizens Trade Campaign
(202) 494-8826




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