[CTC] Democrats say there is time to pass NAFTA 2.0 this year

[Arthur Stamoulis]

Politico Morning Trade

— Democrats say there is still time to get USMCA passed this year, as Republicans warn that not passing the deal will be a political liability for the other party in 2020.

USMCA BAROMETER: IT'S ALL ABOUT PERSPECTIVE <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2373141b6fcb5b37d663e554ff8bee921b663657aeb565a7cf099e260584ed5c38d9eb7d46e33789ac2564fd1e372ddc> : Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress are digging in on their respective positions with regard to the USMCA. GOP lawmakers are raising new levels of alarm that nearly all hope of getting the deal approved this year is lost, while their Democratic counterparts maintain they can still get it done. 

What everyone's clear on is the fact that more work is needed.Congressional staffers are expected to huddle with USTR officials for several more hours today and Friday, House Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2373141b6fcb5b37783c92615144615a78c95a7ffcc6c104d68984a3d04bab4128da1601a3aec260ced0bf904074f885> told reporters Wednesday. He added that the working group expects to meet with Lighthizer early next week, with a meeting tentatively scheduled for Tuesday.

An election warning: One emerging argument from USMCA supporters and the Trump administration is that if Democrats don't ultimately pass the agreement, they'll pay the price at the ballot box next year. Senate Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2373141b6fcb5b37d8b71a7b591e05aecbcdf8f14a62b51a9aad391087994aa113649f86d53ac2eb48798cd55150d4d7> hammered that point in a speech on the Senate floor Wednesday.

"There's little Americans dislike more in politics than zero-sum, oppose-the-other-party politics, no matter the cost," the Iowa Republican said. A handful of other GOP senators followed his lead on the floor in support of the agreement. 

Finance ranking member Ron Wyden <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2373141b6fcb5b377b8b98da475ee34905d878c0b9cf907f9f3b2e1f23ec0e45be512173612f53e9e5ce5fd594146dc9> spoke in support of House Democrats' ongoing negotiations with Lighthizer, saying it would be a "major mistake" to push a vote on USMCA "until it is a good deal."

Wyden-Brown enforcement proposal still alive: Wyden once again voiced concerns with the enforceability of the USMCA, which is one of the areas Democrats are working to improve. In his floor speech, he acknowledged that he and Sen. Sherrod Brown <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2373141b6fcb5b37176d344245e6db39652d6b52f30c654c99994b51a06d2dde28955a7e9e67782820d9d90e76ee7b58> (D-Ohio) have proposed ways to address labor and enforcement challenges in Mexico, adding, "by all accounts there has been good progress on that front."

Neal separately confirmed to reporters that the Wyden-Brown proposal  <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2373141b6fcb5b37c89cee9c51a1afc6ff2a576ff133539b0e90d886805f3a5ab9fc160115a1581eb4e6d9ec10c25ae1>— part of which includes required inspections of factories accused of poor working conditions — is still on the table with Lighthizer. "We discuss it regularly, yes," Neal said when asked about it.

A note about deadlines: All of the focus has been on getting the deal done in 2019, before it gets lost in the presidential politics of 2020. But there is no formal deadline that says USMCA is dead if the process seeps into next year. Rep. Debbie Dingell  <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2373141b6fcb5b376f32158f3b8d8aea5a2a110907d500e12bfeac22b95890af46b4c32bbd03ed21844ebacdd0ec9c03>(D-Mich.), a close ally of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2373141b6fcb5b370b989e278c6c1ec8cca17ad85329c9bf102b96636c8222b4e69f2513b429121b40b2218e788b5a75>, said on Fox Business Network last week <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2373141b6fcb5b377d0609d1e06f90bc4174b5a06c35ff1c24ece2914115a68433dc682f5ca8f07d2be808edd629a8ab>that she sees the deal getting through at some point between now and Election Day 2020 — leaving the door open for potentially several more months of work.

"I will make a bet with you that we will end up with a trade deal somehow, some way," she told host Maria Bartiromo about the USMCA. She added that she sees it happening "by next year's election. I don't know the exact timing."


Arthur Stamoulis
Citizens Trade Campaign
(202) 494-8826




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