[CTC] USTR speculation: "The Obama Establishment Strikes Back?"

Fri Nov 6 06:52:06 PST 2020

Politico Morning Trade

— Joe Biden’s economic team would likely look a lot like the Obama administration, should he win the presidency, but experts caution some trade policies could be different this time around.

— Biden’s likely win is piquing curiosity about who could be his U.S. trade representative, with a litany of politicians, trade wonks and former Obama officials vying for the role.

...

DRIVING THE DAY
THE OBAMA ESTABLISHMENT STRIKES BACK? If Biden ekes out a slim victory to take the White House, much of his economic team is going to be a blast from the past — but it doesn’t mean his policy will be.

Many of Biden’s top advisers date from the Obama administration. Economic guru Ben Harris — subject of a New York Times profile <https://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=138899279c6dfeb5863e843f5447e8c309ebe630a50aee746e2b227dac562dbd0949c3f178c287dd668c35e8dd93b3a7> this week — was his chief economist as vice president.

Informal adviser Jared Bernstein also worked for him as VP, and other economists in Biden’s orbit, like Austan Goolsbee and Jason Furman, also had prominent roles in the last Democratic White House. And Obama veterans litter the shortlist for the next U.S. trade representative (more on that below).

But Biden’s camp says it is keen to chart a new course, both on domestic economic policy and trade, should he take the White House. Stateside, aides told POLITICO’s Ben White <https://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=138899279c6dfeb55e440ee4b7d82731097a9f516a57b607719bb0f138ef782aa3db9702daa94b88eb256bec5b6f1333> that his economic team wants a more robust response to the coronavirus crisis than Obama secured in 2009 when the financial crisis sent the U.S. economy in a tailspin.

And when it comes to trade policy, Biden’s advisers have telegraphed <https://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=138899279c6dfeb5d881678b22f2f6c85d3caee438432caf6f7170bc6cfeefab8440c50b9c9d368e589cd7ba355aa94b> they won’t roll the clock back to the days of the Obama administration, who progressives said failed in areas like pushing for strong labor and environmental provisions <https://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=138899279c6dfeb5fbfba3af6b3efea9e26372edbb524f2ad2f36abba3d713bab1895fd6289f5b5b1144df08031e94bc> in trade agreements and who Trump supporters accuse of letting China walk all over the U.S.

“I fundamentally think that Biden will have a tough approach to some of our worst trade problems,” former WTO Deputy Director General Rufus Yerxa told Morning Trade. “I think he’s going to be tough on unfair trade and he’s going to want to be addressing the concerns of progressive trade skeptics.”

While a Cabinet stacked with Obama veterans may give progressives pause, some do anticipate a new approach from a Biden White House. 

“Given what Biden has identified as his plans and his goals, it's hard to see how he can execute them if his team reverts to the old policies,” said Beth Baltzan, a fellow at the Open Markets Institute and former House and USTR trade lawyer.

USTR GUESSING GAME HEATS UP: Like many in the Washington trade community, Morning Trade is waiting for any hint who Biden — if he becomes president — would select for USTR. It still appears there is no clear front-runner, but please drop us a line if you know better.

A raft of names have been suggested  <https://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=138899279c6dfeb5f69f54567e99a1dbf8855ae7afaee4bf592d33a97b526811b22a190c50f16347bfa0ee32e80cb3c5>, falling into three different camps: 

— Policy wonks like Mike Wessel, a union ally who sits on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, or Jennifer Hillman, a more mainstream thinker who has held important jobs at USTR, the International Trade Commission and the WTO;

— Former Obama administration trade officials like Darci Vetter, who was chief agricultural negotiator, or Michael Punke, who was ambassador to the WTO;

— Politicians like Reps. Jimmy Gomez <https://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=138899279c6dfeb5ba7fc52f8156314fdcae75f9fe1db1e89feee3eb020166e8d51bf86047e48f4c882dcc5a1c5708e3> (R-Calif.), Stephanie Murphy <https://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=138899279c6dfeb5717b7de4c03a2cda24c79374c3b0b483552372395642083ff0d344085f5cf29670b61a8007d5c511> (D-Fla.) or Cedric Richmond <https://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=138899279c6dfeb5e81735c90701098a17ba42d3aab953cdb3fa04dee353028d988d65ba6621724e95075af0e7bc7ef2> (D-La.), who have an interest in trade because of their states.

Place your bets: “I would wager though that the job will be filled by a senior politician that does not land another Cabinet spot/needs to be rewarded for service,” Greg Mastel, a former Senate Finance Democratic trade staffer who is now at Kelley Drye & Warren, said in email.

“But those people are impossible to identify at this point in the process. Current USTR Robert Lighthizer was sort of an unusual choice with a really deep substantive background in trade (and it showed). But I look for a Governor, former Senator/member [of Congress], Presidential candidate, etc. to get the nod,” he added.

WHITE HOUSE TEAM: TRUMP PLANNING TRADE ORDERS EVEN IF HE LOSES — Whoever Biden ends up naming as USTR may have a lot of cleaning up to do when they enter office. Our White House reporter Nancy Cook reported <https://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=138899279c6dfeb5f7c69a480b0bf18668364cb995cb98a174adcff5c4ba587d3d3f3d268c2bc76c1929cd9595ae5260> that Trump is expected to spend the next two weeks signing “a flurry of executive orders on everything from trade to manufacturing to China as a way to show he is staying busy.” No details on those yet, but stay tuned. 

Arthur Stamoulis
Citizens Trade Campaign
(202) 494-8826

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