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<div><br class=""><div class="">Begin forwarded message:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;" class=""><span style="font-family: -webkit-system-font, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, sans-serif; color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.0);" class=""><b class="">Date: </b></span><span style="font-family: -webkit-system-font, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, sans-serif;" class="">April 22, 2015 at 10:29:56 AM EDT<br class=""></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;" class=""><span style="font-family: -webkit-system-font, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, sans-serif; color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.0);" class=""><b class="">From: </b></span><span style="font-family: -webkit-system-font, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, sans-serif;" class="">Dan Beeton <<a href="mailto:beeton@cepr.net" class="">beeton@cepr.net</a>><br class=""></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;" class=""><span style="font-family: -webkit-system-font, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, sans-serif; color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.0);" class=""><b class="">To: </b></span><span style="font-family: -webkit-system-font, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, sans-serif;" class="">Arthur Stamoulis <<a href="mailto:arthur@citizenstrade.org" class="">arthur@citizenstrade.org</a>><br class=""></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;" class=""><span style="font-family: -webkit-system-font, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, sans-serif; color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.0);" class=""><b class="">Subject: </b></span><span style="font-family: -webkit-system-font, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, sans-serif;" class=""><b class="">Fwd: New Paper Finds Gains from Multilateral Trade Liberalization to Be "Extremely Small"</b><br class=""></span></div><br class=""><div class="">
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Hi Arthur,<br class="">
<br class="">
I thought our latest paper would be of great interest to the CTC
list. While it looks at IMF modeling on WTO trade liberalization, as
we note below, "if applied to the proposed Trans-Pacific
Partnership, the results would be similarly small."
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Cheers,<br class="">
<br class="">
Dan<br class="">
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<h2 style="text-align: center;" class=""><a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=C44WN3gLsnXg0k9KorkX60NPXqAu4eZx" class=""><span style="font-size: 12px;" class="">New
Paper Finds Gains from Multilateral
Trade Liberalization to Be “Extremely
Small”</span></a></h2><p style="text-align: center;" class=""><i class=""><span style="font-size: 12px;" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">IMF’s
Own Modeling Shows Gains of About 43
Cents Per Person, Per Month, in the US</span></span></i></p>
<hr class=""><p class=""><b class="">For Immediate Release:</b> April 22, 2015<br class="">
<b class="">Contact: </b>Dan Beeton, 202-239-1460</p><p class=""><b class="">Washington, D.C.</b>- A <a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=%2BHS6yvS97qVgrrIqdR9k08b7R5M%2Fg3sg" class="">new
paper</a> from the <a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=UlJnQB8CgN8SEfnKYVF%2BPsb7R5M%2Fg3sg" class="">Center
for Economic and Policy Research</a> (CEPR)
examines recent IMF research on gains from
multilateral trade liberalization, as under
the WTO. This research shows that gains would
be equal only to about 0.014 percent of
consumption, or about 43 cents per person, per
month, in the United States. The CEPR paper, “<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=N3u1rIg6Jigeulo%2F7RsCCsb7R5M%2Fg3sg" class="">The
Gains from Trade in a New Model from the
IMF: Still Very Small</a>” by <a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=MaCRvgBLxAhRRka5Iv9C9sb7R5M%2Fg3sg" class="">David
Rosnick</a>, examines modeling by the IMF,
which claims to find that WTO agreements to
liberalize trade are worth more than
previously thought. CEPR’s paper shows that in
fact the gains are relatively small.<br class="">
<br class="">
“This paper again raises the question of
whether the trade-offs that workers and
consumers make in so many areas—including
lowered safety and environmental standards,
higher prices for pharmaceuticals and other
patent-protected goods, and the undermining of
local and national laws—are worth it
considering how paltry the gains are,”
economist and lead author of the paper David
Rosnick said. “I don’t think most Americans
would choose to sacrifice so much in the name
of lowered trade barriers just for 43 cents a
month more in their pockets.”<br class="">
<br class="">
The IMF model focuses on liberalization under
the WTO, but if applied to the proposed
Trans-Pacific Partnership, the results would
be similarly small. <br class="">
<br class="">
The IMF model examines the impacts each of
unilateral, bilateral and multilateral trade
liberalization. The modeling shows that
countries can be worse off when they
unilaterally lower protective trade barriers,
as countries are often pressured to do in
negotiations with the U.S. or other developed
countries. Negotiations at the WTO and in
other multilateral fora are also sometimes
lopsided, such as WTO rules that prohibit
various agricultural supports in developing
countries even while large subsidies in
developed countries are maintained.<br class="">
<br class="">
The <a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=C1ReLTBI7dUh6IdL6K9fxcb7R5M%2Fg3sg" class="">CEPR
paper</a> shows that in the modeling by the
IMF, which takes into account the trade-off
between labor and leisure when full employment
is assumed, workers must choose to work more
if production (to facilitate more trade)
increases. This has consequences that are not
considered in the IMF’s modeling, including
the implications for climate change from
increased production and consumption, versus
increased leisure time.<br class="">
<br class="">
The paper notes that perhaps the most
significant result of the IMF model is that it
shows that even when there is market power in
international trade, the gains that can occur
with even multilateral trade liberalization
are very small.<br class="">
<br class="">
“The IMF has a long history of supporting
policies of trade liberalization,” Rosnick
said. “Yet the gains from multilateral
liberalization are quite small, even according
to the IMF paper’s own modeling.”</p><p style="text-align: center;" class="">###</p>
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