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<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Only three trade-related bills have been voted on in a lame duck since 1940.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
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<h1 style="margin-bottom:2.25pt"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#2F679F"><a href="https://www.bgov.com/news_item/4REO9RImUU5U3b2ahjVRGw?ni_source=AlertEmail&ni_name=NewsAlert">Trade Backers Pin Pacific-Pact Hopes on Lame-Duck
U.S. Congress</a> <o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#888888">March 22, 2016 05:00AM ET | Bloomberg Government</span><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">(Bloomberg) -- Election-year protectionism has trade supporters and some lawmakers eyeing the lame-duck session of Congress late this year as the last chance for the U.S. to approve the Trans-Pacific
Partnership before a new administration waters down or scuttles a deal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Opposition to trade has emerged as a rare area of bipartisan agreement in the 2016 election campaign, with leading candidates opposing or criticizing a pact that would boost trade among nations
making up 40 percent of the global economy. A tough battle for congressional seats in states where economic concerns loom large makes supporting deals such as TPP a political liability.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">In such a hostile environment, where anti-trade rhetoric resonates among voters in key manufacturing regions, congressional leaders point to the legislative session just after the Nov. 8 election
as the earliest a deal could be considered.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">"I think we’ll probably get it through, but it’s shaky," Senate Finance Committee Chairman
<a href="http://www.bgov.com/us_legislators/BB1804">Orrin Hatch</a>, a Utah Republican, said in an interview. "It will probably have to be after the elections. I think we have a better chance to passing it after, but we’ll see” what Senate Majority Leader
<a href="http://www.bgov.com/us_legislators/BB1752">Mitch McConnell</a> wants to do, he said. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky, has indicated plans not to pursue it “certainly before the election," leaving the door open to a vote in the lame-duck session, according to trade analysts.
A spokesman for McConnell said the senator has nothing to add to his previous comments on TPP, and has not announced a schedule for consideration yet.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">GOP leaders’ support is critical to the deal’s passage. President Barack Obama is counting on them to mobilize the same coalition of lawmakers that helped give the president
<a href="http://www.bgov.com/core/news/#!/articles/NQGWPW6JIJUR">fast-track authority</a> in June to conclude the 12-nation deal. This time around, Republicans are less committal, having raised opposition to some of the provisions in the newly signed deal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Presidential Campaign<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Presidential politics complicates the picture.
<a href="http://www.bgov.com/us_legislators/BB9401">Hillary Clinton</a>, the front-runner on the Democratic side, said she no longer supports it.
<a href="http://www.bgov.com/company_people/1252249">Donald Trump</a>, who leads the race to be the Republican nominee, has slammed the agreement and called for 45 percent tariffs on Chinese imports.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span class="person"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Thomas Donohue</span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">, chief executive officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said in an interview
Friday on Bloomberg Television that such tariffs would backfire politically and ultimately hurt “the citizens that go to Wal-Mart and Target.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">The hyperbole against trade has helped fire up crowds and rack up primary victories, but it’s heightening anxiety among multinational companies dependent on exports and global supply chains.
So they’re mounting a push on Capitol Hill to get it done as soon as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expeditious Passage<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Business groups are “going to put a lot of pressure on McConnell to make sure this doesn’t fall through, and they have influence,” said Julian Zelizer, a presidential historian at Princeton University.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">After the 12 nations signed the trade deal in early February, five major American business groups joined the leadership of the U.S. Coalition for TPP -- whose members include Apple Inc., Microsoft
Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. -- to push for passage.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">"Our intention is certainly to push as far and fast as we can on the agreement now and work with Congress and administration to get a vote as soon as we possibly can to make sure we get this
turned into law in 2016," <a href="http://www.bgov.com/company_people/1518120">Doug Oberhelman</a>, CEO of Caterpillar Inc., who serves as chairman of the Washington-based Business Roundtable, one of the co-leaders of the coalition, said on a conference call
March 15.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Obama said on Feb. 22 that the administration plans to present the TPP formally to Congress “at some point this year and my hope is that we can get votes.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""><img border="0" id="_x0000_i1026" src="http://assets.bwbx.io/images/i953xMD1paao/v2/640x-1.png"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div>
<h3><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Senate Elections<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Republicans have their own calculation to make as their try to retain control of both chambers in Congress. While the GOP has a firm hold on the majority in the House, it’s defending 24 seats
in the Senate this year. Democrats <a href="http://about.bgov.com/blog/6-things-to-watch-in-congress-in-2016/" title="BGov">
need</a> a net gain of five seats to win outright control of the Senate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">"They don’t want to do anything that might jeopardize their majority in the Senate in the upcoming elections," said Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington
and a former Australian trade negotiator. Republicans need to work out what a TPP vote would be for them, and "that’s the key political issue which will sort of determine ultimately whether they do move forward with this or not," he said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lawmakers fearing a voter backlash may be more apt to stay quiet on the issue through Election Day and take controversial votes during the lame-duck session, which can last as long as a month
after the election and before a new Congress convenes in January, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lame Duck<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">But history shows mixed results. Congressional Research Service records show that only three trade-related bills have been voted on in a lame duck.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""><img border="0" id="_x0000_i1027" src="http://assets.bwbx.io/images/ij9jXFwWMH6Q/v3/640x-1.png"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">The Trade Act of 1974 created
<a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCODE-2011-title19/pdf/USCODE-2011-title19-chap12.pdf" title="Trade Act of 1994">
fast-track authority</a> for the president to negotiate trade agreements that Congress can approve and disapprove without amendments.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">The Uruguay Round of 1994, which led to the creation of the World Trade Organization, was
<a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/103rd-congress/house-bill/5110?resultIndex=11" title="H.R.5110 - Uruguay Round Agreements Act">
approved</a> by a Democratic Congress in the 1994 lame duck session, after Republicans won control of both the House and Senate in the November elections.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">During the 2006 lame-duck session, a Republican House
<a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/109th-congress/house-bill/5602/actions?resultIndex=11" title="H.R.5602 — 109th Congress (2005-2006)">
defeated</a> a measure backed by President <span class="person">George W. Bush</span> to normalize trade relations with Vietnam. The bill was cleared a month later, however, and allowed Vietnam to join the WTO in 2007.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">For a TPP vote in the lame duck, "a lot of work would have to be done between now and then," Meltzer said. "But trade has been done in the lame duck -- it’s definitely doable."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">--With assistance from
<span class="person">Erik Wasson</span>, <span class="person">Steven T. Dennis</span> and
<span class="person">Angela Greiling Keane</span>. <br>
<br>
To contact the reporter on this story:<br>
<span class="person">Tatiana Darie</span> in Washington at <a href="mailto:tdarie1@bloomberg.net">
tdarie1@bloomberg.net</a><br>
To contact the editors responsible for this story:<br>
<span class="person">Carlos Torres</span> at <a href="mailto:ctorres2@bloomberg.net">
ctorres2@bloomberg.net</a><br>
<span class="news-rsf-editor-byline">Brendan Murray, Scott Lanman</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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