<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class="">Materials from the AFL-CIO and Teamsters...<div class=""><br class=""><div class="">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; " class=""><div class="">Arthur Stamoulis</div><div class="">Citizens Trade Campaign</div><div class="">(202) 494-8826</div><div class=""><br class=""></div></div></span><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></span><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
</div><div class=""><br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></div><div class=""><div class="WordSection1" style="page: WordSection1;"><div style="border-style: double none; border-top-color: rgb(64, 64, 64); border-top-width: 2.25pt; border-bottom-color: rgb(64, 64, 64); border-bottom-width: 2.25pt; padding: 8pt 0in;" class=""><p class="MsoTitle" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; font-size: 9pt; font-family: 'Calibri Light', sans-serif; text-align: center; border: none; padding: 0in; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 1pt; font-weight: bold;">MEMORANDUM<o:p class=""></o:p></p></div><w:sdt docpart="99196CD791E242BCACA5A56D7F54280B" calendar="t" maptodatetime="t" calendartype="Gregorian" date="2016-05-19T00:00:00Z" title="Date" sdttag="Date" dateformat="MMMM d, yyyy" lang="EN-US" id="85081685" class=""></w:sdt><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="width: 1056px; border-collapse: collapse;"><tbody class=""><tr style="page-break-inside: avoid; height: 0.2in;" class=""><td width="104" valign="top" style="width: 77.85pt; padding: 0in; height: 0.2in;" class=""><h1 style="margin: 0in 0in 3pt; font-size: 9pt; font-family: 'Calibri Light', sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;" class="">TO:<o:p class=""></o:p></h1></td><td width="568" valign="top" style="width: 426.15pt; padding: 0in; height: 0.2in;" class=""><h2 style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 9pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase; font-weight: normal;" class="">AFL-CIO OFFICERS, STAFF & AFFILIATES<o:p class=""></o:p></h2></td></tr><tr style="page-break-inside: avoid; height: 0.2in;" class=""><td width="91" valign="top" style="width: 0.95in; padding: 0in; height: 0.2in;" class=""><h1 style="margin: 0in 0in 3pt; font-size: 9pt; font-family: 'Calibri Light', sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;" class="">FROM:<o:p class=""></o:p></h1></td><td width="499" valign="top" style="width: 5.2in; padding: 0in; height: 0.2in;" class=""><h2 style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 9pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase; font-weight: normal;" class="">CELESTE DRAKE<o:p class=""></o:p></h2></td></tr><tr style="page-break-inside: avoid; height: 0.2in;" class=""><td width="91" valign="top" style="width: 0.95in; padding: 0in; height: 0.2in;" class=""><h1 style="margin: 0in 0in 3pt; font-size: 9pt; font-family: 'Calibri Light', sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;" class="">SUBJECT:<o:p class=""></o:p></h1></td><td width="499" valign="top" style="width: 5.2in; padding: 0in; height: 0.2in;" class=""><h2 style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 9pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase; font-weight: normal;" class="">ITC TPP STUDY (POST-REPORT RELEASE UPDATE)<o:p class=""></o:p></h2></td></tr><tr style="page-break-inside: avoid; height: 0.2in;" class=""><td width="91" valign="top" style="width: 0.95in; padding: 0in; height: 0.2in;" class=""><h1 style="margin: 0in 0in 3pt; font-size: 9pt; font-family: 'Calibri Light', sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;" class="">DATE:<o:p class=""></o:p></h1></td><td width="499" valign="top" style="width: 5.2in; padding: 0in; height: 0.2in;" class=""><h2 style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 9pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase; font-weight: normal;" class="">MAY 19, 2016<o:p class=""></o:p><w:sdtpr class=""></w:sdtpr></h2></td></tr><tr style="page-break-inside: avoid; height: 0.2in;" class=""><td width="91" valign="top" style="width: 0.95in; border-style: none none solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(64, 64, 64); border-bottom-width: 1pt; padding: 0in; height: 0.2in;" class=""><h1 style="margin: 0in 0in 3pt; font-size: 9pt; font-family: 'Calibri Light', sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;" class=""><span style="font-weight: normal;" class=""> </span></h1></td><td width="499" valign="top" style="width: 5.2in; border-style: none none solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(64, 64, 64); border-bottom-width: 1pt; padding: 0in; height: 0.2in;" class=""><h1 style="margin: 0in 0in 3pt; font-size: 9pt; font-family: 'Calibri Light', sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></h1></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The ITC study—though flawed and overoptimistic—is shocking in its extremely low expectations for the TPP. This memo provides talking points, key findings, and an explanation of why the key findings—as damning as they are—are still overoptimistic.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0in;"><b class=""><u class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Talking Points:<o:p class=""></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Given the history of the flawed and overoptimistic model used by the ITC, this report’s estimate of barely noticeable gains translates to a clear threat of significant job and wage losses for U.S. working people under the TPP.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The ITC has a history of overestimating benefits of trade deals, including NAFTA, Korea and China’s entry into the WTO. Given that history and this shockingly bad TPP report, no member of Congress can credibly argue the TPP is a jobs and growth plan.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Even if we took the ITC’s predictions at face value, which we don’t, the TPP is a terrible growth strategy. We’d create more jobs faster by investing in infrastructure, including roads, railroads, ports and airports, all of which facilitate trade. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">A more realistic study by Tufts, based on real-world data instead of overoptimistic assumptions, predicted U.S. working families would lose 448,000 jobs and that 1.3% of national income would be transferred to businesses from families. That’s what we expect from TPP: more corporate profits, more struggling families.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The reality is that the TPP is a corporate welfare program that redistributes both money and power to global companies. It’s simply poor judgment to support such a corporate wish list on the off chance that the predicted job losses in the energy, metals, auto, electronics, and leather sectors might not be as bad as predicted. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The government’s own ITC study admits the U.S. trade balance will get worse. What more proof do we need that the TPP is a bad deal?<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The ITC’s report makes it doubtful that the TPP’s supposed benefits will even be large enough to cover the costs of flying negotiators all over the world for the past five years.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The result of five years of secret negotiations is a bad deal—and now even the ITC admits it. The best legacy USTR Mike Froman could leave us is to abandon this deal. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0in;"><b class=""><u class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Among the key estimates are the following:</span></u></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Fifteen years after implementation,<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Real GDP in the U.S. will be only .15% higher than it otherwise would be. </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">As Dean Baker explains, that means the U.S. economy being the size in January 2032 that it otherwise would have been in February 2032. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The global U.S. trade deficit will increase by $21.7 billion. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The TPP will create 174,000 full time equivalent jobs.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Output in manufacturing and energy will be $10.8 billion <i class="">less</i> than it otherwise would be, representing a .2% reduction in employment in the sector. </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Passenger vehicle exports are predicted to rise (on the strength of sales to Vietnam and Japan, which is highly doubtful as explained below) though the report admits that the trade balance in vehicle exports will worsen. </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">In an alternate scenario estimate, noting the industry’s doubts about real market opening in Japan, the ITC predicts U.S. auto exports to Japan will actually decrease compared to the baseline by $297 million and exports to the world by $84 million.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Auto parts output and employment will each decrease by .3%.</span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Electronic equipment employment will decrease by .8%. </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Output in the electronic industry will decrease by .8%, tied for the second largest industry decrease (leather goods being hardest hit).<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Chemical sector employment will decrease by .3%, textile sector employment by .4% and titanium products employment by 1.3% </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">(particularly given that China & Russia will take advantage of weak rules of origin, according to the ITC).<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Job losses will occur in the following sectors: forestry; coal; oil; gas; transportation, travel, tourism and logistics; machinery & equipment; leather products; certain metals & metal products; instruments & medical devices; and toys and sporting goods. </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The U.S. services trade balance (a supposed U.S. strength) will worsen because services imports will rise $2.2 billion more than exports, </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">with balances in the “transportation, logistics, travel and tourism” and “recreational and other” sectors being the two hardest hit.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Most of the export benefits predicted in the service sector are for sales by foreign-owned affiliates (i.e. investment) rather than for cross-border supply of services. </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">This means profits for U.S. global companies, but few new service sector jobs created domestically.<b class=""></b><o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Undermining USTR’s talking points, the study admits that the U.S. currently has an overall goods trade deficit with its 20 FTA partners. </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The U.S. trade balance in pharmaceuticals will worsen, with a $1.2 billion increase from Malaysia playing a large role. </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0in;"><b class=""><u class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Why the ITC Study is Flawed:<o:p class=""></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The top line figure estimates a minimal increase in U.S. GDP of .15% over 15 years – far less even than the Peterson Institute study. Even if you believed it, .15% amounts to little more than rounding error. As Dean Baker of CEPR has explained, it essentially means that by January 2032, the U.S. economy will reach the size it would have otherwise reached anyway by February 2032. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">This level of growth is hardly worth trading away important elements of our democracy, which is what the TPP does by doubling the number of global companies that can sue us before private tribunals to attack local, state, and federal government actions that believe may “unfairly” reduce their expected future profits. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The TPP is a terrible growth plan. The U.S. could achieve far greater growth, far faster, by investing in our own economy. Both the International Monetary Fund and Larry Summers (neither known for promoting progressive economic policies) agree that an infrastructure investment of 1% of GDP will result in an increase in GDP of almost 3% a mere four years after the investment.<sup class=""> <a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title="" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114);" class=""><sup class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">[1]</span></sup></a></sup> <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The ITC study’s predictions of auto export growth are particularly laughable. The study notes that U.S. industry sources admit that <i class="">U.S.-headquartered manufacturers expect a larger increase in sales by U.S. companies producing in Vietnam and Thailand than in the U.S.</i> U.S. headquartered manufacturers sold only 19,000 units in Vietnam in 2014, only <b class="">926 </b>of which were built in the U.S. <b class="">Vietnam is simply not a credible market for U.S. built cars.</b> And few in the industry expect Japan’s market to open appreciably, which is why the ITC did an alternate-scenario study on the auto sector. Thus, expectations for meaningful increased exports of U.S.-built autos to TPP countries are not believable. More likely, we will lose some market share in Canada to Japan, as the study admits. These losses will add to the predicted losses in the parts sector that also represent an underestimate due to the weak ITC analysis of the flawed ROO provisions in the TPP.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Finally, the CGE model used by the ITC makes unrealistic assumptions—and is therefore not a useful predictor of real world effects of the TPP. The ITC’s prior estimates of FTA impacts demonstrate its disutility. For example, in its NAFTA report, the ITC incorrectly predicted only a “minor negative impact” on auto production in the U.S. and no change in auto employment and no “appreciable” change in employment in the electronics sector. Both sectors experienced significant job losses. The ITC reports for NAFTA, Korea, and China’s entry into the WTO came nowhere near predicting the trade deficits and job losses we have experienced. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Here are a few of the many reasons why the ITC’s CGE model is flawed:<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The model assumes a static employment rate and that workers who loses jobs instantaneously find new jobs at the same or better pay with no transition costs whatsoever. </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">Thus, its estimate of 174,000 new jobs is an artifact of predictions about increasing efficiencies in the economy as a whole, rather than any kind of real employment estimate. As the study notes, analysis of real world data by Davis Autor has found that the cost-free transition assumption simply isn’t correct. Therefore, we can’t believe the study’s positive estimates about jobs and wages.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The study assumes rather than proves that higher productivity caused by the TPP will translate into higher wages—it predicts a .19% wage increase by 2032. </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">This is not a “finding” but an assumption that can be proved or disproved using empirical evidence. The link between productivity and wages was severed decades ago—and not just in the United States. To assume that this link will magically re-establish itself under the TPP is laughable. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The study admits that there will be <b class="">fewer manufacturing jobs </b>than without the TPP, but assumes wages still rise, even in the services jobs that will replace the manufacturing jobs. This is counterfactual to our lived experience. Nor does it square with BLS figures for occupations with this the highest number of new job openings, which include bartenders, cashiers, cooks, food prep workers, janitors, and home health aides. Again, this prediction is a byproduct of the model: if you assume full employment, but know that manufacturing jobs will decrease, then those jobs have to go somewhere and wages must rise of productivity is rising.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The study assumes only positive effects of eliminating NTMs (non-tariff measures). </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">This is a flawed assumption, not based on any real analysis of the costs and benefits of its deregulatory impact. Food safety, consumer protections, OSH rules, and banking regs are obvious areas where deregulation is a net cost, not a net gain. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The study fails to account for currency manipulation, </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">which can be used to create or sustain trade advantages, and its results should be suspect on this basis. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The study fails to account for higher drug costs </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">that could result from pharmaceutical company use of ISDS to fight Medicaid and other public healthcare programs that use cost-control measures. <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The study assumes only positive impacts of increased foreign direct investment. </span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">It fails to address that increased investment by U.S. firms in TPP countries may directly result in job losses in the U.S. Nor does it account for the “race to the bottom effect” that occurs when countries compete for foreign investment. This effect, which drives down not only wages but also taxes and regulatory regimes, was aptly described by the Tufts Trading Down study.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 12pt 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Symbol;" class="">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman';" class=""> </span></span><b class=""><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class="">The study does not even attempt to meaningfully account for possible losses due to increased opening of government procurement, revenue losses to governments caused by loss of manufacturing, or future regulatory chill.</span></b><span style="font-size: 13pt;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></span></p><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125);" class=""> </span></div></div><div class=""><br clear="all" class=""><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" class=""><div id="ftn1" class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title="" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114);" class=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;" class="">[1]</span></span></span></a> “Chapter 3: Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment,” in World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, Oct. 2014, available at: <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/pdf/c3.pdf" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114);" class="">https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/pdf/c3.pdf</a>. Larry Summers, “Why public investment really is a free lunch: The IMF finds that a dollar of spending increases output by nearly $3,” Larry Summers Blog, Oct. 7, 2014, available at: <o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><a href="http://larrysummers.com/2014/10/07/why-public-investment-really-is-a-free-lunch/#sthash.5fkH0nJ6.dpuf" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114);" class="">http://larrysummers.com/2014/10/07/why-public-investment-really-is-a-free-lunch/#sthash.5fkH0nJ6.dpuf</a>. </div></div></div></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""></div>
<div class=""><div class=""><div class="WordSection1"><div class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><strong class=""><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">For Immediate Release </span></strong><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></div></div><div class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><strong class=""><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">May 18, 2016 </span></strong><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></div></div><div class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p></div><div class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p></div><div class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><strong class=""><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Contact: </span></strong><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></div></div><div class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><strong class=""><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Ted Gotsch, (202) 624-6911</span></strong><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></div></div><div class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><strong class=""><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:tgotsch@teamster.org" class="" style="color: purple;">tgotsch@teamster.org</a></span></strong><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: center;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: center;"><strong class=""><span class="" style="font-size: 15pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">HOFFA: NEW PROJECTION IN TPP REPORT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT</span></strong><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></div><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: center;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: center;"><em class=""><b class=""><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Commission Has Bad Track Record of Predicting Trade Benefits</span></b></em><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></div><div class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p></div><div class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">(WASHINGTON) – The following is a statement from Teamsters General President James P. Hoffa about the U.S. International Trade Commission’s review of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The USITC is predicting the TPP will only result in an economic impact of an average annual GDP growth of .01 percent over 15 years.</span></div></div><div class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p></div><div class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">“The numbers coming out of the U.S. International Trade Commission about the economic benefits that it says would result from the implementation of this 12-nation Pacific Rim trade deal are typical – and typically wrong.</span></div></div><div class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p></div><div class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">“For years now, the USITC has reported on pending trade agreements and made them look like blockbuster deals for this nation. But everyday Americans know the true story. Millions of jobs have been lost in the past two decades and wages have been cut for many formerly middle-class workers across the country. More than a few are now struggling to make ends meet.</span></div></div><div class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p></div><div class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">“The Teamsters recently <a href="https://teamster.org/sites/teamster.org/files/itc.pdf" class="" style="color: purple;">filed comments</a> with the Commission about how the TPP would negatively affect not only our workers, but the American workforce in general. Manufacturing, in particular, will be hardest hit because workers in countries like Vietnam are paid pennies on the dollar compared to those in the U.S.</span></div></div><div class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p></div><div class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">“This country should not engage in a race to the bottom. But despite the claims of the USITC, that is what will happen if Congress moves ahead and ratifies this very bad trade agreement.”</span></div></div><div class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p></div><div class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Founded in 1903, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters represents 1.4 million hardworking men and women throughout the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. Visit <a href="http://www.teamster.org/" class="" style="color: purple;">www.teamster.org</a> for more information. Follow us on Twitter @Teamsters and “like” us on Facebook at <a href="http://www.facebook.com/teamsters" class="" style="color: purple;">www.facebook.com/teamsters</a>.</span></div></div><div class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p></div><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: center;"><strong class=""><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">-30-</span></strong><span class="" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></div><div class="" style="margin: 0in 0in 12pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </div></div></div></div></div></body></html>