<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/03/well-find-out-whether-trump-is-actually-tough-on-trade-this-month.html" class="">https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/03/well-find-out-whether-trump-is-actually-tough-on-trade-this-month.html</a><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><div class="story-top"><div class="story-header-left twoCol"><h1 class="title" itemprop="name">We'll find out whether Trump is actually tough on trade this month</h1></div></div><div class=""><div id="article_deck" class="content">
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<ul class=""> <li class="">Trade decisions involving steel, Chinese Solar panels and washing machines are all due from Trump in January/early-February. </li> <li class="">A
report containing "muscular" recommendations regarding Chinese
violations of intellectual property could also be made public this
month, an administration official tells CNBC.</li> <li class="">A White House
official said it would be premature to discuss whether the U.S. would
initiate NAFTA withdrawal talks when the three countries convene this
month.</li> <li class="">Republican lawmakers and governors have sought repeated assurance the White House will not withdraw from NAFTA.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div><div class=""><section class="cols2"><div class="col1 unit"><article class=""><div class="story"><div id="article_body" class="content"><div class=" group-container">
<div class="group" itemprop="articleBody"><p class="">The Trump Administration is staring down a
half-dozen deadlines on trade policy that will create a moment of truth
for the White House, which has so far opted for long-term investigations
and renegotiations over immediate challenges to the status quo.</p><p class="">January could change that.</p><p class="">The month is book-ended
by contentious trade negotiations with South Korea, beginning Jan. 5 in
Washington, and with Mexico and Canada, beginning Jan. 23 in Montreal.
By mid-January, Pres. Trump must decide whether to punish exporters of
cheap steel and aluminum that threaten American producers, the subject
of a nine-month national security investigation. By late January, Pres.
Trump must decide whether to levy fines on Chinese solar panel
producers. A decision on washing machine tariffs is due early February.</p>
<div id="inline_movable_ad" class=""></div><p class="">A separate, draft report is
circulating among agencies on Chinese violations of US intellectual
property — an issue that figured prominently in the National Security
Strategy — is said to contain "muscular" recommendations. An
administration official tells CNBC the recommendations are still being
discussed, but could be made public this month.</p><p class="">Strict enforcement
actions against China and unpredictable negotiations on free-trade
agreements may align with President Trump's populist preferences on
trade, but the business community and Republican lawmakers have warned
of the economic consequences of letting the pendulum swing too far.</p><p class="">"To date, the Trump
Presidency has been marked by strong growth and job creation and rising
business confidence. Withdrawing from trade agreements or raising
tariffs puts that momentum at risk," said John Murphy, senior vice
president for international policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "The
White House has a choice here: Take aggressive action on longstanding
trade concerns or double down on economic growth."</p><p class="">A White House official
pointed to trade as part of a "bigger picture" for the economy, with
cabinet-level discussions described as "deliberative" and the President
focused on doing right by American workers.</p><p class="">But as the White House considers its choices, battle lines have been forming on two fronts.</p><p class="">The first is between
congressional Republicans who support free trade and the hawks advising
the President to withdraw from multilateral trade agreements and instill
tariffs. Such advisers had been pushing Trump to take action against
China on steel or intellectual property before his November trip to
Asia. Citing tax reform sensitivity, diplomatic efforts and national
security, centrist aides moved to postpone any potential action, sources
familiar with the matter said. </p><p class="">The White House moved to
shelve its most rancorous trade rhetoric toward the end of the year in
an effort to preserve GOP relationships as tax reform neared passage.
Expecting the truce would be temporary, GOP senators and governors began
seeking reassurances in December from the Administration that it would
not withdraw from NAFTA as talks enter their final stretch in early
2018.</p><p class=""><strong class="">"</strong>The
Montreal round has become make or break," said Matt McAlvanah, principal
at Monument Policy Group and former Assistant U.S Trade Representative.
"If there is little or no progress made in Montreal it's hard to see
how a deal comes together by the administration's March deadline."</p><p class="">Withdrawal is not an
outcome that fazes Amb. Robert Lighthizer, the top US trade official; at
a briefing with reporters following the October round, Lighthizer said,
"If we end up not having an agreement, my guess is all three countries
will do just fine."</p></div></div><div class=" group-container">
<div class="group" itemprop="articleBody"><p class="">At a White House meeting on Dec. 5, a heated
exchange took place between Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and
Lighthizer, the top US trade official. Alexander, who had been defending
NAFTA's positive impact on the automotive industry, challenged
Lighthizer to name a senator who would support withdrawing from the
pact. Lighthizer, according to a person briefed on the meeting, could
not.</p><p class="">A White House official
said it would be premature to discuss whether the U.S. would initiate
withdrawal talks when the three countries convene this month, and a
second official said there are "notional" dates being discussed for
future talks in February and March.</p><p class="">In charting his trade
agenda, Pres. Trump must also balance the interests of two industries
with heavy presence in states that voted for him: Manufacturing and
agriculture.</p><p class="">Private sector advisory
reports have shown manufacturers and labor unions in support of the
strict approach the Administration has taken in its talks with NAFTA
partners and Korea. And one specific NAFTA proposal that so far hasn't
sit well with Mexico and Canada - requiring automobiles to have 50
percent of parts come from the US - is a direct overture to US factory
workers.</p><p class="">Yet in recent months, the
agricultural community has warned that such proposals, met with
resistance by Mexico and Canada, could put a deal — and their business —
at risk.</p><p class="">Jeff Schwager employs 530
people at Sartori Company, which exports cheese to 50 countries. He
says withdrawing from NAFTA would erase half his business in Mexico and
Canada, and cut revenues by at least 2 percent overall.</p><p class="">"Canada and Mexico are
both excellent trading partners, and if we can't work with the countries
that are so close to us, it makes it even harder for the ones that are
farther away," Schwager tells CNBC.</p><p class="">Kent Bacus of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association says it's hard to brace for impact without knowing what the US will do.</p><p class="">"I don't know how you
have a plan B to lose a billion dollar market, and that's really
something that's concerning us," Bacus told CNBC. "We stand to lose more
than we stand to gain."</p><p class="">The industry chasm exists on the China front, too.</p><p class="">American steel and
aluminum producers would cheer tariffs on Chinese exporters after years
of watching prices get suppressed due to oversupply. But Nicholas Lardy
of Peterson Institute for International Economics says China could
target US agriculture in retaliation. Roughly 40% of the US soybean
crop, concentrated in farm belt states like Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa,
is exported to China.</p><p class="">"If we lose that market, the price will plummet," Lardy said.</p><p class="">President Trump will
speak to the Farm Bureau convention on Jan. 8, an address that may hold
some tea leaves for how he plans to approach this month's slate of
decisions.</p>
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<h4 class="subtitle">TRADE DEADLINES LOOMING</h4>
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<ul class=""> <li class=""><strong style="font-size: 1.1em;" class="">January 5:</strong> Talks resume with Korea to modernize trade deal</li> <li class=""><strong style="font-size: 1.1em;" class="">January 14/15: –</strong> Deadline for Commerce Dept. recommendations on whether steel imports threaten US national security</li> <li class=""><strong class="">January 21/22:</strong> Deadline for Commerce Dept. recommendations on whether aluminum imports threaten U.S. national security.</li> <li class=""><strong class="">January 26:</strong> Deadline for President Trump's decision on solar panel tariffs</li> <li class=""><strong class="">January 28:</strong> Trade ministers from US, Canada and Mexico close sixth round of NAFTA talks</li> <li class=""><strong class="">February 1:</strong> ITC's final decision due on Boeing v. Bombardier</li> <li class=""><strong class="">February 4:</strong> Deadline for President Trump's decision on washing machine tariffs</li> <li class=""><b class="">TBD:</b> Penalties imposed on China's intellectual property abuses<b class=""><u class=""><br class=""></u></b></li> </ul></div></div></div></div></article></div></section><div class=""><br class=""></div></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""></div></body></html>