<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><!--[if !mso]><style>v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
w\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
</style><![endif]--><title>Mark Weisbrot's Columns from CEPR</title><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:Helvetica;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 2 2 2 2 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Verdana;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
h1
{mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 1 Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
text-align:center;
font-size:24.0pt;
font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;
color:#505954;
letter-spacing:-.75pt;
font-weight:bold;}
h2
{mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 2 Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
line-height:150%;
font-size:18.0pt;
font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;
color:#505954;
letter-spacing:-.75pt;
font-weight:bold;}
h3
{mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 3 Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
line-height:150%;
font-size:13.5pt;
font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;
color:#505954;
letter-spacing:-.75pt;
font-weight:bold;}
h4
{mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 4 Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
line-height:150%;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;
color:#505954;
letter-spacing:-.75pt;
font-weight:bold;}
h5
{mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 5 Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;
font-weight:bold;}
h6
{mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 6 Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:7.5pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;
font-weight:bold;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
p
{mso-style-priority:99;
margin-top:12.0pt;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
span.Heading1Char
{mso-style-name:"Heading 1 Char";
mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 1";
font-family:"Calibri Light",sans-serif;
color:#2E74B5;}
span.Heading2Char
{mso-style-name:"Heading 2 Char";
mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 2";
font-family:"Calibri Light",sans-serif;
color:#2E74B5;}
span.Heading3Char
{mso-style-name:"Heading 3 Char";
mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 3";
font-family:"Calibri Light",sans-serif;
color:#1F4D78;}
span.Heading4Char
{mso-style-name:"Heading 4 Char";
mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 4";
font-family:"Calibri Light",sans-serif;
color:#2E74B5;
font-style:italic;}
span.Heading5Char
{mso-style-name:"Heading 5 Char";
mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 5";
font-family:"Calibri Light",sans-serif;
color:#2E74B5;}
span.Heading6Char
{mso-style-name:"Heading 6 Char";
mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 6";
font-family:"Calibri Light",sans-serif;
color:#1F4D78;}
p.msonormal0, li.msonormal0, div.msonormal0
{mso-style-name:msonormal;
margin-top:12.0pt;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
p.readmsgbody, li.readmsgbody, div.readmsgbody
{mso-style-name:readmsgbody;
margin-top:12.0pt;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
p.externalclass, li.externalclass, div.externalclass
{mso-style-name:externalclass;
margin-top:12.0pt;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
p.mcnimage, li.mcnimage, div.mcnimage
{mso-style-name:mcnimage;
margin-top:12.0pt;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
p.mcntextcontent, li.mcntextcontent, div.mcntextcontent
{mso-style-name:mcntextcontent;
margin-top:12.0pt;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
p.mcntextcontent1, li.mcntextcontent1, div.mcntextcontent1
{mso-style-name:mcntextcontent1;
margin-top:12.0pt;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:7.5pt;
font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;
color:#5A5050;}
p.mcntextcontent2, li.mcntextcontent2, div.mcntextcontent2
{mso-style-name:mcntextcontent2;
margin-top:12.0pt;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;
line-height:150%;
font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;
color:#5A5050;}
p.mcntextcontent3, li.mcntextcontent3, div.mcntextcontent3
{mso-style-name:mcntextcontent3;
margin-top:12.0pt;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;
line-height:150%;
font-size:10.5pt;
font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;
color:#5A5050;}
p.mcntextcontent4, li.mcntextcontent4, div.mcntextcontent4
{mso-style-name:mcntextcontent4;
margin-top:12.0pt;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;
line-height:150%;
font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;
color:#5A5050;}
span.EmailStyle35
{mso-style-type:personal;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:black;}
span.EmailStyle36
{mso-style-type:personal-compose;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1027" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body bgcolor="#FFFCF5" lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div align=center><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;background:#FFFCF5;border-collapse:collapse'><tr><td width="100%" valign=top style='width:100.0%;padding:15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt'><div align=center><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width=0 style='width:6.25in;border-collapse:collapse'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><div align=center><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width=0 style='width:6.25in;background:#FFFCF5;border-collapse:collapse'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:6.75pt 0in 0in 0in'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:6.75pt 0in 0in 0in'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;margin-left:-2.25pt;margin-right:-2.25pt'><tr><td width=300 valign=top style='width:223.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 13.5pt 6.75pt 13.5pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>Mark Weisbrot's columns from CEPR<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table></td><td width=300 valign=top style='width:223.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;max-width: 298px;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 13.5pt 6.75pt 13.5pt;word-wrap: break-word;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=AbohMsOVBqbsTBzxypdtlL%2BMJ2RnbNOt" target="_blank"><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>View this email in your browser</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></div></td></tr><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><div align=center><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width=0 style='width:6.25in;background:#FFFCF5;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;min-width: 600px' id=templateHeader><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:6.75pt 6.75pt 6.75pt 6.75pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 6.75pt 0in 6.75pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><p class=MsoNormal><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=qXcNSRPy8IyDKx9Bitjcba7tLli8T9aE"></a><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=qXcNSRPy8IyDKx9Bitjcba7tLli8T9aE"><img border=0 width=400 style='width:4.1666in' src="https://org.salsalabs.com/o/967/images/et-cepr-header-transparent.png" align=left alt=CEPR></a><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=qXcNSRPy8IyDKx9Bitjcba7tLli8T9aE"></a><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr></table></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><div align=center><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'></td><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td style='padding:6.75pt 13.5pt 6.75pt 13.5pt;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;background:#E9E9E9;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:13.5pt 13.5pt 13.5pt 13.5pt;min-width: 100% !important;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><h1><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=Dhv%2Bq7cR3JHEMXKfRTYnlb%2BMJ2RnbNOt"><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>The Threat of a Trade War Is Overblown―Real War Is Far More Likely </span></a><o:p></o:p></h1><h3 align=center style='text-align:center'><br>by Mark Weisbrot<o:p></o:p></h3></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></div></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></div></td></tr><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><div align=center><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width=0 style='width:6.25in;background:#FFFCF5;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;min-width: 600px' id=templateBody><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:6.75pt 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;margin-left:-2.25pt;margin-right:-2.25pt;max-width: 600px;min-width: 600px;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td width=600 valign=top style='width:6.25in;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 13.5pt 6.75pt 13.5pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><i><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>This article was published by <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=SiwOaRRhQgHw1mAxP1LLJL%2BMJ2RnbNOt"><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>The Nation</span></a> on March 28, 2018. If this email was forwarded to you, subscribe to CEPR's email lists </span></i><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=Cub70iNBxw93rEqskmlRw7%2BMJ2RnbNOt" target="_blank"><i><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>here</span></i></a><i>. </i><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'><hr size=2 width="100%" align=center></span></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>Talk of trade wars and falling skies has taken up much space in the media since Donald Trump first announced tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on March 1. But such fears are highly exaggerated, which should not be surprising in a country where the benefits of a succession of misnamed “free trade” agreements have been grossly exaggerated for decades. Within weeks of announcing the tariffs, the administration had already exempted most of the major suppliers of steel and aluminum to the United States—including the European Union, Brazil, Argentina, South Korea, and Australia, along with Canada and Mexico.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>China’s retaliation was minuscule: It announced tariffs on just $3 billion in US goods, or 0.13 percent of American <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=EV7OFgGbH7oa8eyxVHDayb%2BMJ2RnbNOt"><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>exports</span></a>. The Chinese, like most of the world, know that Trump’s recent actions don’t really represent the long-term trade policy of the United States. That policy is generally made by corporations, working through the best Congress that money can buy. It’s true that Trump contributed to the collapse of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. But its defeat was more the result of a quarter-century of organizing and public education, including by environmental, labor, public-health, and other public-interest groups—not to mention the strong public opposition to it expressed in the fact that TPP opponent Bernie Sanders took 46 percent of the Democratic primary vote. America had reached the point where even longtime supporters of the agreement such as Hillary Clinton were forced to renounce it. (And speaking of long-term US trade policy, it’s worth noting that Trump has since talked about possibly joining the TPP after all, once again displaying the shallowness of his convictions.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>The collapse of the TPP was a remarkable democratic achievement—and rare as a unicorn in US political history: An agreement that every powerful corporate interest as well as the “national-security state” wanted very badly was defeated by mass pressure on US legislators and political candidates. But the prospect of a “trade war” is another story.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>As far as foreign governments and corporations are concerned, it doesn’t make sense to get into a trade war, or any kind of fight that could cause economic damage, with someone like Trump, who is isolated from his own country’s elite. The leaders of America’s biggest trading partners, including Europe and China, are likely smart enough to wait for Trump to finish his stay in the White House or move on to his next distraction, whichever comes first.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>On March 22, Trump threatened China with tariffs on $60 billion of its high-technology exports to the United States. China can certainly afford to wait for Trump’s blustering to subside, even if he follows through on this latest announcement. The goods that Trump has threatened with tariffs represent about <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=6p5PONYNX44PKZ7UOiIAir%2BMJ2RnbNOt"><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>3.6</span></a> percent of China’s exports, and the tariffs would only cost the country a fraction of that. In the world recession of 2009, China’s <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=q8SZpNY3g0i8izHnQ18KqL%2BMJ2RnbNOt"><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>exports</span></a> fell by 11.3 percent, but its economy still grew by 9.2 percent.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>If Trump were proposing tariffs as part of a comprehensive set of economic policies intended to create decent-paying jobs and revitalize the US economy, one could at least begin to imagine such tariffs as part of a new trade policy that could stick—and maybe even get Trump reelected. But his proposed infrastructure spending is pitiful—a tiny 0.08 percent of GDP from the federal government. There is no industrial policy in Trump’s proposals, with cuts to nonmilitary federal funding for research and development. It’s all just posturing—more smoke and mirrors.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>At the same time, Trump-administration officials are <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=6dbrXBNB2gaZiZ6DQYGwIL%2BMJ2RnbNOt"><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>negotiating</span></a> with China about the new tariffs; this is another place where we will need to look at the details. What are they negotiating for? It seems that two of the most important issues are intellectual-property rights and access of US financial firms to Chinese markets. Here we can see that Trump’s “trade” policy—if we look at the main goals and not the erratic tactics—is not so much about trade, and not so different as advertised from the policy of his predecessors.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>Increasing patent protection for branded pharmaceuticals exported to China might boost profits for Big Pharma, but it is not going to reduce our trade deficit or create jobs in the United States. This is one of the most costly forms of protectionism, increasing prices by hundreds or even thousands of times more than would the Trump tariffs on steel or aluminum. And making it easier for Wall Street firms to sell financial services in China is of little value to all but some of the richest Americans.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>Trump has been all about weapons of mass distraction; the real danger now is that he will switch to the distraction of weapons as his presidency crumbles—with a real war, not a trade war. His appointment as national security adviser of the extremist John Bolton, who still defends the Iraq invasion and wants to bomb both North Korea and Iran, is an ugly premonition. The same goes for scrapping Secretary of State Rex Tillerson for Mike Pompeo, another <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=%2BUK02mClIr%2BjwYzSfOxwjr%2BMJ2RnbNOt"><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>advocate</span></a> of bombing Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>On Fox News Sunday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin defended Trump’s acceptance of the omnibus spending bill by <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=qApop6wtQJkQF%2F%2FeaRkI9b%2BMJ2RnbNOt"><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>saying</span></a> that “in Iran, in North Korea, in Venezuela, and Russia, all around the world where we’re using sanctions, we need to make sure we have a military that has the necessary resources.” At the same time, Mnuchin offered some soothing comments about trade negotiations with China, which calmed stock markets on Monday.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>While most of the major media have expressed consternation at Trump’s new “war cabinet,” in the past such sentiments dissipated rapidly once the bombs started falling, as pundits and politicians rallied around the flag.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>Perhaps the only action that Trump has taken that won him widespread media <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=bAqjNAjZrcGosmwUaD%2FG4r%2BMJ2RnbNOt"><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>approval</span></a> and glory was his bombing of Syria in April of last year. Don’t think he didn’t notice that.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><strong><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>Update Wednesday 2 p.m.</span></strong><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>: On Tuesday the White House stated that they had secured some changes in its existing trade agreement with South Korea, with more specifics forthcoming; and this was hailed by Trump supporters as a significant victory. But the biggest reported gain was that the quota on US auto company exports to South Korea will be expanded to 50,000 from 25,000; however, no individual US auto manufacturer sold more than 11,000 cars in South Korea last year, so it’s not clear that this would do anything to create jobs in the US, especially since the cars in question could be manufactured by US auto companies anywhere in the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>On the positive side, it doesn’t look like the US will have a trade war with South Korea any time soon. Especially since South Korea is probably a lot more worried about Trump starting a devastating real war with North Korea.<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width=0 style='width:6.25in;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:6.75pt 13.5pt 6.75pt 13.5pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='background:#E9E9E9;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left style='border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td style='padding:18.75pt 0in 13.5pt 13.5pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=Ls435HiG9BXBIrTfJ9bMzr%2BMJ2RnbNOt"><span style='text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=112 height=124 style='width:1.1666in;height:1.2916in' id="_x0000_i1026" src="http://org.salsalabs.com/o/967/images/Mark%20Weisbrot.jpg" alt="Mark Weisbrot"></span></a><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr></table><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=right width=0 style='width:297.0pt;border-collapse:collapse'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:13.5pt 13.5pt 13.5pt 0in'><div><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:150%'><strong><span style='font-size:9.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>Mark Weisbrot</span></strong><span style='font-size:9.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'> is <a href="http://cepr.net/about-us/staff/mark-weisbrot" target="_blank"><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>Co-Director</span></a> of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC and president of <a href="http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/" target=new><span style='color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>Just Foreign Policy</span></a>. He is also the author of the book <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/failed-9780195170184?cc=us&lang=en&"><em><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5091B0;text-decoration:none'>Failed: What the "Experts" Got Wrong About the Global Economy</span></em></a> (Oxford University Press, 2015).<br><br><strong><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'>CEPR</span></strong> is an independent, nonpartisan think tank that was established to promote democratic debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='display:none'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=right width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 13.5pt 13.5pt 13.5pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><div><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>CEPR's Advisory Board includes Nobel Laureate economists <b>Robert Solow</b> and <b>Joseph Stiglitz</b>; <b>Janet Gornick</b>, Professor at the CUNY Graduate Center and Director of the Luxembourg Income Study; and <b>Richard Freeman</b>, Professor of Economics at Harvard University.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width=0 style='width:6.25in;border-collapse:collapse;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:6.75pt 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;margin-left:-2.25pt;margin-right:-2.25pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td width=600 valign=top style='width:6.25in;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;max-width: 600px;min-width: 600px;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><div align=center><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width=0 style='width:6.25in;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 13.5pt 6.75pt 13.5pt'><h3 align=center style='text-align:center'>If you value CEPR's work, support us by making a financial contribution.<o:p></o:p></h3></td></tr></table></div></td></tr></table></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width=0 style='width:6.25in;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:6.75pt 6.75pt 6.75pt 6.75pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 6.75pt 0in 6.75pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=right style='border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td style='padding:4.5pt 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><p class=MsoNormal><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=fU2F57XsKVz%2FObpCjvvYDa7tLli8T9aE" target="_blank"><span style='text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=176 style='width:1.8333in' id="_x0000_i1027" src="https://org.salsalabs.com/o/967/images/et-donate.png" alt="Support the underdog: Donate"></span></a><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr></table><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width=0 style='width:264.0pt;border-collapse:collapse'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:150%'><em><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'>Despite having a budget that's smaller than some other think tanks' entertainment funds, we consistently do the most cost-effective work.</span></em><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'><br> <o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></div></td></tr><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><div align=center><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width=0 style='width:6.25in;background:#D7D7D7;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;min-width: 600px' id=templateFooter><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 6.75pt 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;min-width: 600px;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:6.75pt 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;margin-left:-2.25pt;margin-right:-2.25pt;max-width: 298px;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td width=300 valign=top style='width:223.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left style='border-collapse:collapse'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 13.5pt 6.75pt 13.5pt'><h3>Contact Us <o:p></o:p></h3><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'><br>1611 Connecticut Ave NW, Suite 400<br>Washington, DC 20009<br>(202) 293-5380<br><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=Iyj2Mk4D%2FvKwpbnUsoSfb7%2BMJ2RnbNOt" target="_blank"><span style='color:#5091C2;text-decoration:none'>http://cepr.net</span></a> • <a href="mailto:cepr@cepr.net"><span style='color:#5091C2;text-decoration:none'>cepr@cepr.net</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table></td><td width=300 valign=top style='width:223.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left style='border-collapse:collapse;max-width: 298px;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 13.5pt 6.75pt 13.5pt'><h3>Let's Talk About It<o:p></o:p></h3><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:150%'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'><br><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=g67%2F57iytSzM1GfKzpyiRa7tLli8T9aE" target="_blank"><span style='color:#5091C2;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 id="_x0000_i1028" src="https://org.salsalabs.com/o/967/images/et-twitter.png" alt=Twitter></span></a> <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=fJ1%2FWLSg5IStKJwSOB7LpnBntM1X9l3k" target="_blank"><span style='color:#5091C2;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 id="_x0000_i1029" src="https://org.salsalabs.com/o/967/images/et-facebook.png" alt=Facebook></span></a> <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=e7v%2FVHkhhyf34iARsoPW6r%2BMJ2RnbNOt" target="_blank"><span style='color:#5091C2;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 id="_x0000_i1030" src="https://org.salsalabs.com/o/967/images/et-tumblr.png" alt=tumblr></span></a> <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=LEd2RBBJCp30E9h317ar9L%2BMJ2RnbNOt" target="_blank"><span style='color:#5091C2;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 id="_x0000_i1031" src="https://org.salsalabs.com/o/967/images/et-youtube.png" alt=YouTube></span></a> <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=zuhJPorkHdAYbqS25Q57Fb%2BMJ2RnbNOt" target="_blank"><span style='color:#5091C2;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 id="_x0000_i1032" src="https://org.salsalabs.com/o/967/images/et-rss.png" alt=RSS></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:6.75pt 0in 0in 0in;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;margin-left:-2.25pt;margin-right:-2.25pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td width=600 valign=top style='width:6.25in;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;max-width: 100%;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=left width="100%" style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 13.5pt 6.75pt 13.5pt;word-wrap: break-word;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%'><p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#5A5050'><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=VcqjeN70%2BMH3l%2FqHG4Sf27%2BMJ2RnbNOt" target="_blank"><span style='color:#5091C2;text-decoration:none'>Subscribe</span></a> • <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=EzsHCv7WLcNzzXngwRvtqb%2BMJ2RnbNOt"><span style='color:#5091C2;text-decoration:none'>Update Subscriptions</span></a> • <a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=UVk%2FlJiT0B%2BN5a0l%2FelNQr%2BMJ2RnbNOt" target="_blank"><span style='color:#5091C2;text-decoration:none'>Unsubscribe</span></a><br><br><a href="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=qzLR7wadycnlGbw9orKZlb%2BMJ2RnbNOt" target="_blank"><span style='color:#5091C2;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 id="_x0000_i1033" src="https://org.salsalabs.com/o/967/images/et-cc.png" alt="Creative Commons"></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></div></td></tr></table></div></td></tr></table></div><p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><a href="http://www.salsalabs.com/?email"><span style='text-decoration:none'><img border=0 id="_x0000_i1034" src="https://hq.salsalabs.com/salsa/images/SALSA_empowered_180x50_2.png" alt="empowered by Salsa"></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img border=0 width=1 height=1 style='width:.0104in;height:.0104in' id="_x0000_i1035" src="http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/TrackImage?key=4191605843"><o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>