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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-family:"Helvetica Neue","serif";color:#C99850">CQ NEWS<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-family:"Helvetica Neue","serif";color:#757575">Oct. 22, 2018<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:27.0pt;color:#333333">A Democratic Majority Could Challenge Trump Trade Pact</span><span style="font-size:27.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:#333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white;vertical-align:baseline"><span class="timestamp-story"><span style="font-family:"Helvetica Neue","serif";color:#757575;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">Oct. 22, 2018 – 5:00 a.m.</span></span><span style="font-family:"Helvetica Neue","serif";color:#757575"> <span class="byline-story"><span style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">By
Ellyn Ferguson, CQ</span></span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica Neue","serif";color:#757575"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">The Trump administration included provisions in the new trade deal with Canada and Mexico to win Democratic support, but if the midterm elections hand Democrats the majority in either the House or Senate, the path
forward for the revised agreement may be more complicated.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">President Donald Trump is expected to sign the agreement in principle on Nov. 30 and send implementing legislation to Congress sometime later. Trump also notified Congress on Tuesday that his administration plans
to launch trade negotiations with the European Union, Japan and the United Kingdom in 2019.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">Many congressional Democrats have long been skeptical of trade and the midterms may give them some leverage if they gain control of the House or Senate. The likely new chairmen of the committees that have jurisdiction
over trade, Rep. <a href="https://plus.cq.com/person/215"><span style="color:#333333;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">Richard E. Neal</span></a> of Massachusetts on House Ways and Means and Sen. <a href="https://plus.cq.com/person/406"><span style="color:#333333;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">Ron
Wyden</span></a> of Oregon on Senate Finance, would be the key lawmakers to raise their party's concerns. While the two lawmakers are the presumed chairmen, their caucuses would make the final decision after the midterm elections.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-family:"Helvetica Neue","serif";color:#333333"><img border="0" width="1024" height="682" id="Picture_x0020_2" src="cid:image005.jpg@01D46A0D.807A12F0" alt="Story Photo"></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica Neue","serif";color:#333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="phototext-story" style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline">
<span class="cutline"><span style="font-family:"Graphik-Web","serif";color:#757575;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">Wyden could become chairman of the Finance Committee if Democrats win the Senate.</span></span><span style="font-family:"Graphik-Web","serif";color:#757575"> <span class="credit"><span style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">(Tom
Williams/CQ Roll Call)</span></span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">A Wyden aide told CQ the senator "would certainly expect to be Finance chairman" if the Democrats win the Senate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">Wyden, now ranking member on the Finance Committee, has shown a willingness to needle Trump. He introduced a bill that would require a president at the start of U.S. trade negotiations with a country to disclose
personal business or other economic interests in that country. The bill (<a href="https://plus.cq.com/bill/115/S408"><span style="color:#333333;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">S 408</span></a>) has not moved this Congress, but Wyden as chairman would
likely continue to raise questions about trade actions that could benefit the Trump family.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">He also has been critical of Trump’s use of national security as a pretext for imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on trading partners and of trade tactics he says lack a strategic plan. While he questions the Trump
administration’s approach to trade, Wyden often notes that trade is an important part of his state’s economy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">He has said he wants to delve into the revised pact to determine if it represents a significant improvement on labor and the environment. If approved, the agreement in principle would replace the 1994 North American
Free Trade Agreement.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">“The crucial test for a new NAFTA, or any new trade agreement, is whether it is enforceable, particularly with respect to promises to protect worker rights and the environment,” Wyden said after the agreement text
was released Sept. 30. “Americans are sick of hearing speeches about the benefits of new trade agreements when the agreements in place aren't even enforced and their opportunities don’t materialize.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">Wyden was elected to Congress in 1996, two years after NAFTA was implemented. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">Neal, a Ways and Means Committee member since 1993 and now the panel's top Democrat, voted against NAFTA and says he will scrutinize the proposed replacement.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">“The bar for supporting a new NAFTA will be high,” Neal said in a statement this month. “NAFTA has had many critics over the years and its flaws are well-known. “<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">He added: “Like me, many of my colleagues did not support the deal originally. And those who did will have serious questions that they need answered before doing so again.” Neal's office did not respond to a request
for his trade priorities if he becomes chairman.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-family:"Helvetica Neue","serif";color:#333333"><img border="0" width="1024" height="682" id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image006.jpg@01D46A0D.807A12F0" alt="Story Photo"></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica Neue","serif";color:#333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="phototext-story" style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline">
<span class="cutline"><span style="font-family:"Graphik-Web","serif";color:#757575;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">Neal could become the Ways and Means chairman if Democrats win the House.</span></span><span style="font-family:"Graphik-Web","serif";color:#757575"> <span class="credit"><span style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">(Tom
Williams/CQ Roll Call)</span></span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white;vertical-align:baseline"><b><span style="font-family:"Helvetica Neue","serif";color:#333333">Democratic Leverage<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">Trump's Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer may have made inroads with Democrats with his outreach to those in Congress as well as to labor unions and liberal organizations that are part of the party’s base.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">Sen. <a href="https://plus.cq.com/person/384"><span style="color:#333333;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">Sherrod Brown</span></a>, D-Ohio, a Finance Committee member and staunch labor supporter, said he
has spent hours on the phone over the past months with Lighthizer discussing policy. Lighthizer, a former Senate Finance staffer for Sen. Bob Dole, R-Kan., may have an edge over his predecessors in understanding lawmakers and their concerns.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">The proposed United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement includes labor provisions in the main text and would greatly limit the use of a mechanism to settle trade disputes, a binding arbitration process corporations use
to sue foreign governments over policies or laws that hurt profits.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">Labor groups have spent years pushing for those changes. They also welcome language that would require 75 percent of the content of cars and auto parts made in North America to come from the three countries and a
requirement that the Mexican government approve by January 2019 changes to its labor laws to give workers more protections. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">“There are some good things on paper. Like we say in the labor movement, a collective bargaining agreement is only good when you see the final language and it gets signed,” said Cathy Feingold, director of the AFL-CIO’s
International Department. “We are far from saying that this could be an agreement that is where we need it to be.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">Brandon Arnold, executive director of the pro-trade National Taxpayers Union, said despite the labor provisions Trump should expect Democrats to use their leverage as a majority to seek more concessions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">In 2007, House Speaker <a href="https://plus.cq.com/person/35"><span style="color:#333333;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">Nancy Pelosi</span></a>, D-Calif., and Ways and Means Chairman Charles B. Rangel,
D-N.Y., pushed the George W. Bush administration to renegotiate pending trade agreements with Peru and Panama to include a set of labor and environmental principles known as the May 10th Agreement.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">It is unclear at this point what course of action Pelosi could take on the NAFTA replacement pact if she became speaker again in 2019, Arnold said. But he does not doubt, he said, that Pelosi would “use her negotiating
power to the maximum extent that she possibly can” to press Trump to reopen the agreement or to add specific provisions in the implementing legislation sent to Congress.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">“Will she get some concessions? Will she be able to get some deals that are pro-labor, pro-environment?” Arnold asked. “Quite possibly.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">Scott N. Paul, president of Alliance for American Manufacturing, said the Republicans’ need for votes to pass the proposed trade pact will determine how much the president is willing to offer Democrats. It’s a time-honored
procedure.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">“If I were a Democrat, I would say, you know we can get an infrastructure package, maybe we can find mechanisms that are going to guarantee worker rights the support that we don’t have right now,” Paul said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;margin:1.5rem">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">But Arnold said there’s a limit to how far Democrats can go if enough of them believe a revamped pact is better than no trade deal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:24.0pt;background:white;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box">
<span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333">“Absent approval of this new NAFTA deal, there is very little question the Trump administration will at least attempt to withdraw from the existing NAFTA agreement,” he said. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Bell MT","serif"">Legislative Representative<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Bell MT","serif"">Desk 202.624.6891<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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