<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div class=""><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/20/us/politics/trump-cabinet-china-policy.html" class="">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/20/us/politics/trump-cabinet-china-policy.html</a> </div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><div class="ehdk2mb0 css-1vkm6nb"><h1 id="link-5de76e99" class="css-88wicj e1h9rw200" data-testid="headline">Is Trump More Flexible on China Than His Hawkish Cabinet Picks Suggest?</h1></div><p id="article-summary" class="css-79rysd e1wiw3jv0"><i class="">President-elect
Donald J. Trump is assembling a team of aides bent on confrontation
with China. But he also has advisers who do business there, including
Elon Musk.</i></p></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">They are the new class of cold warriors, guns pointed at China.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">President-elect Donald J. Trump has <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/12/us/politics/trump-foreign-policy-neocons-america-first.html" title="">chosen</a>
cabinet secretaries and a national security adviser who stress the need
to confront China across the entire security and economic spectrum:
military posture, trade, technology, espionage, human rights and Taiwan.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Those
choices could open a new era of conflict with a nuclear-armed nation
that has the world’s largest standing army and second-largest economy,
and where many top officials see the United States as a superpower in
decline.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Mr. Trump’s hawkish advisers
so far include Marco Rubio, a Florida senator named as secretary of
state; Michael Waltz, a Florida congressman tapped for national security
adviser; and Pete Hegseth, a former Fox News television personality
designated to be defense secretary. Cabinet secretaries must be
confirmed by the Senate, although Mr. Trump has floated the idea of <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/us/politics/recess-appointment-trump-matt-gaetz.html" title="">getting around that by using recess appointments</a>.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Those
men are more explicitly hostile to China than their counterparts in the
Biden administration, though President Biden has taken an aggressive
tack with China and continued some of the policies from Mr. Trump’s
first term. A consensus has solidified among Democrats and Republicans
in Washington that <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/26/world/asia/united-states-china-conflict.html" title="">China must be constrained</a> because it is the nation most capable of upending American global dominance.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Yet there are
signs that Mr. Trump might consider a more moderate approach on trade,
perhaps to avoid upsetting a roaring stock market nurtured by Mr. Biden.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">That includes Mr. Trump’s announcement on Tuesday that he plans to appoint <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/us/politics/howard-lutnick-trump-commerce-secretary.html" title="">Howard Lutnick</a>,
chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald, as commerce secretary and
overseer of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Mr. Trump said
Mr. Lutnick will “lead our tariff and trade agenda.” Mr. Lutnick has
said he supports more targeted tariffs rather than the universal ones
that Mr. Trump and some of his hard-line advisers have mentioned during
the campaign. And Mr. Lutnick has asserted that Mr. Trump “wants to make
a deal with China.”</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Mr. Lutnick told <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnjo7H7xipc" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">CNBC</a>
in September that tariffs are a bargaining tool and should only be
imposed on foreign goods that compete with what is made in the United
States.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Mr. Trump’s national security
appointees typically use much stronger language. They also eschew the
rhetoric of Mr. Biden’s aides, who speak of working with China on a few
global issues and maintaining stable ties.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“I feel strongly
that the Chinese Communist Party has entered into a Cold War with the
United States and is explicit in its aim to replace the liberal,
Western-led world order that has been in place since World War II,” Mr.
Waltz said last year at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council, a
research group.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“We’re in a global
arms race with an adversary that, unlike any in American history, has
the economic and the military capability to truly supplant and replace
us,” he added.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Those aides could find
themselves contending with counterweights in the administration,
including Mr. Lutnick and other colleagues who may not want to smash
commercial ties to China.</p></div></div><div class="">That also includes their boss. When it comes to China, Mr. Trump is <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/us/politics/trump-china-bolton.html" title="">more transactional than ideological</a>,
willing to threaten or impose punishing tariffs to try to land deals
that he says will benefit the United States. He has rarely expressed
support for human rights and talks of autocrats, including Xi Jinping,
China’s leader, in glowing terms. And current close advisers of his,
notably Elon Musk, the tycoon who owns Tesla, have <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/world/asia/musk-china-tesla-explained.html" title="">important business interests</a> in China.</div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">As Mr. Trump
prepares to take office, this mix of incentives and ideas is creating
significant uncertainty about the direction of one of the world’s most
consequential relationships.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">China is
rapidly building up its military. It makes contentious territorial
claims to the entirety of the South China Sea, in which the navies of
the United States and Southeast Asian nations operate, and seeks to
bring the democratic island of Taiwan under its control. It is giving
commercial aid to Russia during its war on Ukraine. It is quickly
building out its technological capacity. It has threatened to clamp down
on exports of strategic goods, including <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supply-Chain/China-to-tighten-export-curbs-on-critical-metals-ahead-of-Trump-s-return" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">certain critical minerals</a>.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">But
the country remains one of America’s top trading partners and an
essential supplier and customer for many U.S. businesses. Mr. Biden also
says China is a necessary partner on critical global issues, including
climate change, infectious diseases, narcotics, nuclear weapons and <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/16/world/americas/biden-xi-meeting.html" title="">artificial intelligence</a>.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">In the first Trump administration, there was a sharp divergence on China policy among rival aides who sometimes <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/30/us/politics/lighthizer-trump.html" title="">argued in front of him</a>.
The main cleavage was between national security and some economic aides
who aimed to aggressively confront and contain China, and advisers from
the business world who wanted to maintain and even bolster certain
commercial ties.</p></div></div><div class="">Mr. Rubio and Mr. Waltz, as well as <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/30/us/politics/lighthizer-trump.html" title="">Robert Lighthizer</a>
and Peter Navarro, two former trade aides who could enter this
administration, embrace the idea of decoupling: They believe the United
States is better off drastically cutting commerce and other ties with
China. They criticize the more surgical approach — de-risking —
advocated by Mr. Biden and some European leaders. That approach seeks to
maintain broad commercial relations with China while cutting back
specific trade that officials say threatens national security — notably
the sale to Chinese companies of <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/us/politics/biden-china-technology-semiconductors.html" title="">advanced semiconductor chips</a>.</div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Mr. Trump’s
national security aides will likely push for a rapid U.S. military
buildup in the Asia-Pacific region, with an eye toward a potential war
over Taiwan. However, the aides have also talked of confronting Iran,
which would divert military resources from Asia.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Other potential appointees, notably Elbridge A. Colby, a <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/us/politics/trump-china-taiwan-hong-kong.html" title="">former Pentagon official</a>, stress the need to <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://time.com/6696552/u-s-hawks-china-threat-essay/" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">husband those resources in Asia</a> to try to <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/24/opinion/trump-foreign-policy-republicans.html" title="">deter China</a>.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">It is also unclear whether Mr. Trump’s top aides would support the <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/26/us/politics/us-china-military-bases-weapons.html" title="">reinforcement of military alliances in Asia</a> that Mr. Biden undertook, since Mr. Trump has asserted that allies — including <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/17/donald-trump-taiwan-pay-us-defence-china-national-convention" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Taiwan</a>, Japan and South Korea — take advantage of the United States.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Mr. Trump has talked tough on trade with China. He could support <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.cotton.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/pntr_bill_2024.pdf" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">a push</a>
by some Republican lawmakers, including Mr. Rubio, to revoke China’s
“most favored nation” trading status with the United States, which would
result in higher tariffs on the country’s goods. Even outside of that,
Mr. Trump says he wants to impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese
imports.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">In his first
term, Mr. Trump slapped tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of
products from the country. Mr. Biden kept those tariffs.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">But Mr. Trump also has a history of vacillating on trade policy. At the request of Mr. Xi, he <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/07/business/us-china-zte-deal.html" title="">lifted sanctions on ZTE</a>, a Chinese technology firm, and <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jun/30/white-house-trump-huawei-catastrophic-mistake" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">created exceptions</a> for some sales to continue to Huawei, in an effort to <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/business/economy/china-trade-deal.html" title="">reach a trade deal</a>
with the country. Both are companies that his former national security
advisers considered threats, and Mr. Rubio, the senator, criticized Mr.
Trump’s leniency on ZTE at the time.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">More
recently, Mr. Trump has reversed his position on TikTok, the popular
Chinese-owned social media app, about which there are also national
security concerns. After trying to ban TikTok from the United States in
2020, Mr. Trump has recently <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/12/technology/trump-tiktok-ban.html" title="">promised to rescue it</a>. That has raised questions about the influence of a billionaire conservative megadonor, Jeff Yass, <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/business/tiktok-bytedance-jeff-yass.html" title="">who is invested in ByteDance</a>, the parent company of TikTok.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">A
large part of how Mr. Trump himself will handle China could depend on
Mr. Xi. Like some other leaders, Mr. Xi could turn to flattery and try
to engage Mr. Trump in personalized diplomacy. Kim Jong-un, the North
Korean leader, did this in the first Trump administration, to the
delight of Mr. Trump.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">As president, Mr.
Trump welcomed Mr. Xi to Mar-a-Lago in 2017, only to have their budding
relationship fall apart over a trade war that Mr. Trump started.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">In a meeting on Sunday with Mr. Biden in Peru, Mr. Xi stressed <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202411/17/WS673936a6a310f1265a1cdd06.html" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">four “red lines”</a>
for China in relations with the United States: Taiwan, democracy and
human rights, China’s path and system, and China’s right to development,
according to Xinhua, China’s state news agency. The message appeared
aimed as much at Mr. Trump and his new team as at the Biden
administration.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">The leading China
policy hand among the current appointees is Mr. Rubio, a Cuban American
critic of Communist governments. He made China a focus of his
legislative efforts over his nearly 14 years as a U.S. senator. None of
Mr. Trump’s designated aides have spent as much time as Mr. Rubio
examining the many dimensions of U.S.-China competition and trying to
enact policy through legislation, across Republican and Democratic
administrations.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Mr. Rubio has sponsored bills that have touched on many aspects of U.S.-China relations, from human rights <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/us/politics/china-uyghurs-forced-labor.html" title="">abuses in Xinjiang</a> and Hong Kong to U.S. <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/28/business/china-investment-federal-employees.html" title="">stock market listings</a> by Chinese companies and the <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.rubio.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/BAG24A07.pdf" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">“wealth and corrupt activities”</a> of Chinese leaders.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">In September, Mr. Rubio released a <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.rubio.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/The-World-China-Made.pdf" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">report</a>
called “The World China Made” that took a detailed look at China’s
efforts to dominate 10 strategic industries. He wrote that his aim was
to issue a “wake-up call about how serious the threat we face has
become. No longer can we fall back on old dogmas and stale talking
points.”</p></div></div><div class=""><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">On the economic front, Mr. Trump is <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/trump-treasury-candidates.html" title="">still weighing</a> his Treasury secretary pick. That person would work alongside Mr. Lutnick, playing <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/us/politics/trump-treasury-secretary-tariffs.html" title="">a key role in economic talks with China</a>. </p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Mr.
Lighthizer, who led Mr. Trump’s earlier trade talks with China, could
get a senior role, though perhaps not in the cabinet. Mr. Navarro, the
author of “Death by China” and “The Coming China Wars,” could also get a
position. He visited Mr. Trump at Mar-a-Lago this month, after having
served four months in prison this year for <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/us/politics/peter-navarro-prison-convention.html" title="">defying a congressional subpoena</a> related to a House investigation into the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">The
Chinese government has not made official statements on Mr. Trump’s
appointees. Tang Shiping, a political scientist at Fudan University in
Shanghai, wrote online that Mr. Rubio’s appointment in itself “is
difficult enough for China to deal with.”</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">The
selections have also resonated in Taiwan, where the ruling Democratic
Progressive Party denounces China’s efforts to bring the island under
its control.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Vincent Chao, a
politician in Taipei who was President Lai Ching-te’s spokesman during
his election campaign earlier this year, said that Mr. Trump’s choices
would give allies in the Pacific region confidence that America would
continue to stand by them “in terms of supporting their ability to
resist coercion and intimidation” by the China.</p></div><br class=""><div class="">
Arthur Stamoulis<br class="">Citizens Trade Campaign<br class="">(202) 494-8826<br class=""><br class=""><br class=""><br class="">
</div>
<br class=""></body></html>