<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div class=""><i class="">A few early comments on the President-elect’s tariffs “plan"...</i></div><div class=""><i class=""><br class=""></i></div><div class=""><ul class="MailOutline"><li class=""><i class="">This latest tariffs ultimatum is framed as being about drugs and migration so the incoming President can use emergency powers granted to the executive. Folks should question the idea of border militarization as a serious proposal for addressing either of those topics.</i></li></ul><div class=""><i class=""><br class=""></i></div><ul class="MailOutline"><li class=""><i class="">Corporate interests that oppose tariffs under any circumstances are going hard with the anti-tariff talking points. We know that, when used right, tariffs are a critical tool for combatting imports made under abusive labor conditions, that ignore environmental standards or that otherwise put American workers and producers at an unfair disadvantage. When combined with other industrial policy tools like tax incentives, procurement preferences and government investment, tariffs can also play a vital role in rebuilding American manufacturing and resilient supply chains for critical goods. </i></li></ul><div class=""><i class=""><br class=""></i></div></div><div class=""><ul class="MailOutline"><li class=""><i class="">If Trump were serious about using tariffs to help American workers and the economy, he would couple them with robust industrial policies (rather than dismantle those already in place!) and would target them more effectively to maximize their benefits and minimize their costs. </i></li></ul></div><div class=""><i class=""><br class=""></i></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/business/economy/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.html" class="">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/business/economy/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.html</a></div><div class=""><h1 class="e1h9rw200 css-1fyu99" data-testid="headline">Trump Plans Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China That Could Cripple Trade</h1><p class="css-cb4rkw"><i class="">The
president-elect said that he would impose the across-the-board tariffs
on Day 1 and that they would stay in place until Canada, Mexico and
China halted the flow of drugs and migrants.</i></p></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">President-elect
Donald J. Trump said on Monday that he would impose tariffs on all
products coming into the United States from Canada, Mexico and China on
his first day in office, a move that would scramble global supply chains
and impose heavy costs on companies that rely on doing business with
some of the world’s largest economies.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">In
a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump mentioned a caravan of migrants
making its way to the United States from Mexico, and said he would use
an executive order to levy a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and
Mexico until drugs and migrants stopped coming over the border.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“This
Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular
Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” the
president-elect wrote.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“Both Mexico
and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long
simmering problem,” he added. “We hereby demand that they use this
power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a
very big price!”</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">In a separate
post, Mr. Trump also threatened an additional 10 percent tariff on all
products from China, saying that the country was shipping illegal drugs
to the United States.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“Representatives
of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that
of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately,
they never followed through,” he said.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Taken
together, the tariff threats were a dramatic ultimatum against the
three largest trading partners of the United States, and a move that
threatens to sow chaos in America’s diplomatic and economic
relationships even before Mr. Trump sets foot in the White House.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">News
of the tariffs immediately set off alarms in the three nations, with
the currencies of Canada and Mexico sliding against the dollar and a
spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington warning that “no one
will win a trade war.”</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">The tariffs would
also have serious implications for American industries, including auto
manufacturers, farmers and food packagers, which busily ship parts,
materials and finished goods across U.S. borders. Mexico, China and
Canada together account for more than a third of the goods and services
both imported and exported by the United States, supporting tens of
millions of American jobs.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">The three
countries together purchased more than $1 trillion of U.S. exports and
provided nearly $1.5 trillion of goods and services to the United States
in 2023.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">The costs could be
particularly high for the industries that depend on the tightly
integrated North American market, which has been knit together by a
free-trade agreement for over three decades. Adding 25 percent to the
price of imported products could make many too costly, potentially
crippling trade around the continent. It could also invite retaliation
from other governments, which could put their own levies on American
exports.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">That, in turn, could cause
spiking prices and shortages for consumers in the United States and
elsewhere, in addition to bankruptcies and job losses. Mr. Trump has
insisted that foreign companies pay the tariffs, but they are actually
paid by the company that imports the products, and in many cases passed
on to American consumers.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Imposing
tariffs on Canada and Mexico would also violate the terms of the North
American trade agreement that Mr. Trump himself signed in 2020, called
the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. That could open the United
States to legal challenges, and potentially threaten the pact itself and
the terms of trade it sets for North America.</p></div></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">While Mr. Trump did not explicitly invite any negotiations from Canada,
Mexico or China, he has a history of using tariffs as leverage in
negotiations. That may raise questions about whether his Monday evening
announcements were merely an opening offer in what could be an extended
negotiation.</div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">He and Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada spoke about two hours after the
president-elect’s announcement, at Mr. Trudeau’s initiative, said a
Canadian official with knowledge of the call who was not authorized to
brief the press and requested anonymity to discuss the exchange. The
conversation, the official said, was constructive and focused on trade
and security at the border.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Still, if
Mr. Trump follows through on his plans to impose tariffs on Day 1, that
may leave little time for the negotiations needed to delay or defuse the
tariffs.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Flavio Volpe, the president
of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, a Canadian industry
group, said he believed Mr. Trump’s post was just the opening salvo to
what would be a negotiation that ultimately was about allies in a fight
against China.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“How do you
compete with China if you price Quebec aluminum, Ontario cars,
Saskatchewan uranium and Alberta oil prohibitively?” he said, citing
some top Canadian exports to the United States.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“Half
of the cars made in Canada are made by American companies, and half of
the parts that go into all the cars made in Canada come from U.S.
suppliers, and more than half of the raw materials are from U.S.
sources,” Mr. Volpe added. “We are beyond partners. We are almost as
inseparable as family.”</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">But other
trade experts said an increased trend toward protectionism suggested
that the tariffs might really materialize. “The increasing specificity
of Trump’s tariff threats, both in terms of the amounts and the
countries to be targeted, indicates the strong possibility that these
are looming actions rather than just blustery threats,” said Eswar
Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Canadian
and Chinese officials defended their efforts to fight fentanyl on
Monday night, and emphasized the mutual benefits of trade with the
United States.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">In a statement, the Canadian government sought to focus on the deep, inextricable ties between the two economies.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“Canada is
essential to U.S. domestic energy supply, and last year 60 percent of
U.S. crude oil imports originated in Canada,” said the statement, issued
by Mr. Trudeau; the finance minister, Chrystia Freeland; and the public
safety minister, Dominic LeBlanc. It added, “We will of course continue
to discuss these issues with the incoming administration.”</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Liu
Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said that
“the idea of China knowingly allowing fentanyl precursors to flow into
the United States runs completely counter to facts and reality.”</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“China believes that China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial,” he added.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Mexican
officials did not immediately react, but the announcement most likely
did not come as a surprise to them after repeated threats from Mr. Trump
to impose such tariffs. In the closing days of his campaign, Mr. Trump
threatened to place tariffs as high as 100 percent on all goods from
Mexico.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Mexican officials had already signaled that they were prepared to respond with retaliatory tariffs of their own.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“If you put 25 percents tariffs on me, I have to react with tariffs,” Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico’s economy minister, <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/2024/11/11/donald-trump-aranceles-mexico-marcelo-ebrard-responde-que-tambien-impondran-aranceles/" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">told</a> a radio interviewer this month. “Structurally, we have the conditions to play in Mexico’s favor,” he added.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Mr. Trump imposed
high tariffs during his first term in office, which began in 2017,
including levies of up to 25 percent on global metals and a variety of
products from China. In 2019, he threatened to <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/07/us/politics/trump-tariffs-mexico.html" title="">impose tariffs</a> on all products from Mexico and <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/us/politics/trump-mexico-border-economy.html" title="">shut down the border entirely</a> unless the country halted illegal immigration. But he was persuaded to <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/07/us/politics/trump-tariffs-mexico.html" title="">walk away</a> from those threats.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">While
campaigning for a second term in office, Mr. Trump made even larger
tariff threats, including suggesting that he would impose a levy of 60
percent or more on Chinese goods, and tariffs of 10 percent to 20
percent on products from other countries.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">He has also threatened aggressive action to stop the flow of migrants across U.S. borders, as well as <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/11/us/politics/trump-2025-immigration-agenda.html" title="">mass deportations</a> of millions of undocumented immigrants.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">The Associated Press <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://apnews.com/article/migrants-caravan-mexico-immigration-d4134dcc84ef4cc1df192ad8167eba6e" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reported last week</a>
that a caravan of roughly 1,500 migrants, mainly from Central and South
America, had formed in southern Mexico and was traveling north, hoping
to reach the United States before Mr. Trump’s inauguration in January.</p></div></div><div class=""><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">U.S. tariffs
could send shock waves across Mexico’s economy, which is exceptionally
dependent on trade with the United States, exporting about 80 percent of
its goods to its northern neighbor.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">So
far, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has taken a conciliatory
approach to dealing with Mr. Trump, speaking with the president-elect by
telephone and saying that her government is eager to meet with his
transition team before he takes office.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">While
seeking to project calm and confidence in its relationship with the
United States, Canada has acknowledged that the border is a <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/world/canada/canada-immigration-trump-mass-deportation.html" title="">sore spot in the relationship</a>.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Over
the summer, even as illegal border crossings from Mexico plummeted, the
number of people arriving in the United States from Canada illegally
hit an all-time high. Smugglers have begun using Canada as a
steppingstone for people trying to get to the United States illegally,
primarily from India.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">The Biden
administration has repeatedly raised the issue with the Canadian
authorities, and, in response to the summer surge, introduced emergency
measures to quickly deport people back to Canada. Since then, the
numbers have plunged. The U.S. Customs and Border agency <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/cbp-releases-october-2024-monthly-update" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">last week said</a>
that encounters — meaning interactions between agents and undocumented
migrants including arrests and expulsions — had dropped by 69 percent
from June to October.</p></div></div><div class=""><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, a
province with major economic links to the United States primarily
through its auto industry, said Mr. Trump’s statement called for an
urgent Canadian response.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“A 25 percent tariff would be devastating to workers and jobs in both Canada and the U.S.,” Mr. Ford said <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://x.com/fordnation/status/1861211084234883177" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">on social media</a>.
“The federal government needs to take the situation at our border
seriously. We need a Team Canada approach and response — and we need it
now. Prime Minister Trudeau must call an urgent meeting with all
premiers.”</p></div><br class=""><div class="">
Arthur Stamoulis<br class="">Citizens Trade Campaign<br class="">(202) 494-8826<br class=""><br class=""><br class=""><br class="">
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