[CTC] TPP Ministers Unlikely To Meet Again In August, Despite ASEAN Gathering

[Arthur Stamoulis]

Inside U.S. Trade - 08/07/2015
TPP Ministers Unlikely To Meet Again In August, Despite ASEAN Gathering
Posted: August 06, 2015
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade ministers are unlikely to meet this month after they failed to seal a deal in Hawaii during a four-day meeting in July, according to informed sources, further narrowing the chances that the Obama administration can meet its goal of having Congress pass a completed TPP deal before the presidential elections heat up.

TPP countries had discussed the idea of holding their next ministerial in conjunction with the Aug. 22-25 meeting of trade ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its trading partners in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. But that proposal seems to have fallen flat.

One source said this idea was floated during the July 28-31 ministerial meeting in Hawaii. But he said he did not believe that holding the next TPP ministerial in conjunction with the ASEAN meeting would give countries enough time to resolve the outstanding issues in the interim.

Another source speculated that, instead of holding the ministerial in Kuala Lumpur, TPP countries could hold it in nearby Singapore, which has been the site of several TPP meetings.

Following the Hawaii ministerial, Japanese TPP minister Akira Amari said he and his counterparts shared a common understanding that they should meet again before the end of August. In comments to Japanese reporters, Amari said he had favored announcing a date for the next ministerial meeting, but that others had opposed the idea.

"We haven't set a next date for a meeting," Froman said at the July 31 closing press conference in Hawaii. "But we will be working bilaterally, some of the issues are bilateral in nature, such as some of the market access issues that have been discussed. Others involve groups of countries, and others involve all countries, and we'll be finding ways in the coming period of time to engage intensively to resolve those issues in those various configurations."

Asked about the political schedule in the U.S. in relation to TPP, Amari said it is getting pretty tight for doing a TPP deal, a reference to the stated administration goal of trying to get a congressional vote as early as possible. Some sources identified the end of January as the cutoff date since that is when the primaries begin.

If there is no agreement after September, there might be a vacuum period in the negotiations, Amari said. But he made the point that even though ministers missed a chance to conclude a deal at their meeting here, it does not necessarily mean the TPP negotiations will drift.

New Zealand Trade Minister Tim Groser said in an interview with Inside U.S. Trade that maintaining "momentum is everything" in the minds of the trade ministers. "We're not talking about a meeting that's months and months down the road, but we just can't find yet a precise date," he said. "But we are absolutely all of a mind not to repeat [the Doha round] and to maintain political momentum in this negotiation."

Groser made the point that much of the work that has to be done on the key outstanding issues of autos and dairy market access can take place bilaterally or in groups consisting of the members involved.

The third main outstanding issue is the data exclusivity period for biologic drugs, which would have to ultimately be decided by the whole group, although it could also be discussed bilaterally beforehand.

If TPP countries are targeting the Nov. 18-19 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders forum for a TPP signing, they would have to reach a deal by mid-August. The fast-track law requires President Obama to notify Congress 90 days before he signs a TPP agreement. It also requires him to submit to Congress, 30 days before formal introduction of an FTA implementing bill, the draft Statement of Administration Action, and the final legal text of the agreement.

In the interview, Groser also argued that the U.S. presidential campaign is a complicating factor but not an insurmountable one. "It takes as long as it takes. And we're all conscious that the most important country is already in election mode, it's only a question of the temperature getting warmer and warmer and warmer," Groser said. "And that will complicate matters, but we'll just deal with it."

Some sources here held out the possibility that Congress might not approve a TPP deal until after the November election during the lame-duck session. They noted there is precedent for doing so since both the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Uruguay Round trade deal were passed during a lame-duck session.

But perhaps a more immediate event putting pressure on negotiators is the Canadian national election slated for Oct. 19. Prime Minister Stephen Harper formally launched the campaign on Aug. 2, when he requested that the House of Commons be dissolved. However, Canada is determined to stay at the negotiating table during the election season (see related story).

Froman typically attends the annual ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting, and in the past trade ministers from Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand have also attended. Four TPP countries - Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Singapore - are ASEAN members.

This year's ASEAN trade ministers meeting, from Aug. 22-25, overlaps with the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) forum, which the USTR also typically attends. The AGOA forum is set for Aug. 24-27 in Libreville, Gabon.

The three Latin American TPP countries - Chile, Peru and Mexico - do not typically attend the ASEAN trade ministers' meeting. However, in August 2013, TPP countries held a ministerial meeting in Brunei in conjunction with the ASEAN trade ministers meeting that was attended by Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo and senior officials from Chile and Peru.
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