[CTC] Ministers Eye TPP Finale In Hawaii; Amari Says Some Parties May Drop Out

[Arthur Stamoulis]

Inside U.S. Trade
Daily News

Ministers Eye TPP Finale In Hawaii; Amari Says Some Parties May Drop Out
Posted: July 15, 2015

Trade ministers from the two largest economies negotiating the
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) this week indicated that parties could
strike a deal at an upcoming July 28-31 ministerial in Hawaii, while
Japan's TPP minister held open the possibility that a deal reached in
Hawaii could leave out some of the current 12 members.

U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman on Wednesday (July 15) for the
first time publicly indicated that Washington is hoping that this month's
ministerial will bring about the conclusion of a deal.

"We're working with all of the countries in the region to address the last
few issues. We've got a meeting set up at the end of this month and we're
going to work very hard to make sure that's a productive meeting and to try
and reach closure on as many issues as possible, ideally on the rest of the
agreement," Froman said in an interview with the Singapore-based network
Channel NewsAsia.

Separately, Japanese TPP Minister Akira Amari in a July 14 press conference
also indicated that Japan is hoping for a deal to be struck in Hawaii, but
suggested that some countries might not be ready to join TPP if it is
indeed concluded at the end of this month.

"We must make the ministerial meeting in Hawaii the last ministerial
meeting to conclude the negotiations," Amari said, according to an informal
translation of his remarks. "It is important for all the 12 countries to
reach a conclusion. Japan will make the utmost effort to achieve this, but
if there should be a country that cannot get ready, [then] there is an
option for it to join later."

When asked to elaborate, Amari declined to name which countries he was
referring to. But he said TPP cannot be allowed to "drift" because of the
inability of some countries to finalize an agreement in Hawaii.

"Even if there is a country that cannot be ready, or a country that does
not consider to conclude in Hawaii, we cannot let the TPP drift because of
them," he said. "And I think it is one of the options we can take, that
even if a country cannot get ready by Hawaii, we can conclude the TPP
negotiations anyway, and enact it, then the country can come back and join
the agreement."

He also said the U.S. and Japan are hoping to conclude their bilateral
negotiations in Hawaii as well, and signaled that this would depend on the
positions of other parties.

Malaysia and Canada -- because of domestic political considerations-- are
generally viewed as the two countries most likely to drop out of a final
deal and join later. But TPP observers differ over whether that scenario is
really likely.

Froman's remarks came at the tail end of a July 11-15 trip to Mexico,
Malaysia and Singapore for meetings with trade officials on TPP. He was
scheduled to meet with Singapore's trade minister, Lim Hng Kiang, upon
arriving in that country, which lies less than one hour's flight away from
Kuala Lumpur.

In Kuala Lumpur, Froman met with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak for
what Najib's office publicly described as a “courtesy call,” and also met
with governing and opposition lawmakers in the Malaysian Parliament. During
this visit, he discussed with these officials Malaysia's poor human
trafficking record, which has come under scrutiny due to signals that an
upcoming State Department report will upgrade the country from its current
status on a list of countries that most egregiously fail to prevent human
trafficking.

Malaysia's placement on "Tier 3" of the 2014 Trafficking in Persons report
has thrown into doubt whether the TPP could be subject to fast-track
procedures if considered by Congress. This is because of a provision in the
Trade Promotion Authority law that strips such protections from any trade
deal with a Tier 3 country.

Observers have said Froman's preparatory meetings are necessary because
governments are approaching the Hawaii meeting as the final TPP
ministerial, and therefore will need to "show their hands" on sensitive
issues to each other during that meeting because no additional TPP
ministerials are on the horizon following this month's meeting.

Some of the issues most likely to require resolution at the ministerial
level relate to intellectual property, including the data exclusivity
period for biologic medicines; access to Canada's dairy market; and access
to the U.S. sugar market.

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